Tahoe Backcountry Snow

1/8 new snow at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 4″

Backcountry obs.:

Conditions in the backcountry this week have been squirrely. Early in the week, feet of fresh snow graced the entire region making for midwinter coverage all the way down to 7000′. While the storm system added 2-4′ of new snow, it ended with significant SW winds, creating unstable wind slabs high along peaks and ridges. Temperature wobbles during the storm also created an upside-down density structure within the storm snow. As a result, numerous avalanches occurred in the backcountry on 1/5, including a fatality near Castle Peak.

On Weds (1/7) a tour along the West Shore from 7000′ – 8400′ revealed soft, upside down snow in N and NE facing sheltered terrain, and breakable 1/4″ sun crust atop cold, soft snow on solar aspects. Near the Sierra Crest, wind slabs remained sensitive as evidenced by skier-triggered shooting cracks in steeper wind loaded terrain. While temps hadn’t broken freezing since the previous storm, the snow underfoot skied heavy and grabby. Wide, arcing turns were the best defense against sinking into thick, layered snow beneath.

This whole scenario changed by Thurs. (1/8) as a cold inside slider dropped in on Weds. night (1/7), bringing strong winds, light snow and the coldest temps of the season. Anywhere from 4-8″ of light, dry snow fell across the Tahoe backcountry in the wee hours of 1/8. In the wake of the system, a cold N and NE flow kept temps in teens throughout the day on 1/8.

Light, soft snow remained abundant in the Mt. Rose backcountry at dawn on Fri (1/9). 24 hours after snowfall ended, cold temps in the low to mid teens held a pristine 4-6″ of dry powder, especially in sheltered zones. Beneath the new snow, the dense and stratified snow from last weekend’s storm appeared to be gaining cohesion and density. There’s a less upside-down feel to the snowpack than earlier in the week.

Some light wind effect has textured snow along ridge lines and on exposed N and NE aspects. In some areas this presents as harmless texture, while in others dense wind effect sits atop cold, light snow, or just the opposite: a few inches of cold windblown powder resting atop a slippy, barely breakable wind crust. NE exposed faces and gullies require an attuned powder sniffing nose to find the best, most consistent snow without falling victim to lurking trapdoor wind effect.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today starts a warming and drying trend that may last weeks across the Tahoe Sierra. A building PacNW ridge of high pressure is replacing the troughy pattern responsible for the wet systems over the past few weeks. Expect sunny skies for the foreseeable future with temperatures starting cool today (1/9) with highs in the upper 20s – low 30s above 7000′, to moderating a bit each day, then peaking above average (low – mid 40s) by the middle of next week. Strong inversions will likely set up each night with calm winds and clear skies.

Worth noting: In these high pressure scenarios, mountain ridges and summits often remain near or above freezing at night while valleys and depressions can be 10°F or more cooler. In these regimes, very dry air at the upper elevations can help preserve soft snow in shaded areas despite warm temps.

Beyond next week, model ensembles point towards a ridge of high pressure setting up over the PacNW and parking it for a “big sit” until at least late January. Confidence is high in above average temps and little to no precip. through at least MLK Day (1/19).

Beyond 1/20, it’s too early to say. The ridge could shift into the Gulf of Alaska, but the pattern would still remain largely dry. Once again, we swing from very wet to bone dry.

In the mean time, the backcountry has a great, thick base that could weather a dry spell fairly well. Low January sun angles and generally weak solar radiation will also help keep melt relatively slow compared to later in the season. It’s not powder, but dry spells like this can create mini corn cycles on due southerly aspects – and ripping corn is good fun!

Break out the sunnies!

Backcountry obs: 

0500 temp at 8400′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 23 deg. New snow: 2-3+’.

The backcountry’s doing alright. A multi-day day storm from 2026’s first weekend dropped feet of new snow across the area above 7000′., with the greatest amounts focused along the Sierra Crest. Much like the Christmas storm cycle, the recent storms were not all that cold, starting as rain at higher elevations, before cooling off just enough to allow feet of high density cement to further deepen the snowpack. Despite the warmth, the storms bolstered the snowpack giving the nascent season a bit more longevity should prolonged drier weather move in. 

Touring above Incline Village at dawn on Mon. (1/5), I found multiple feet of new, wind affected snow starting at 8400′ all the way to 9500′. Ski tracks from the previous day had been either filled or sculpted into elegant mounds and fins. Even in sheltered forested areas, winds had added texture and density changes to the new snow. In open areas, a soft, breakable wind board had formed with notable, yet nonreactive wind slabs across lee micro-features. Sheltered trees held the least affected snow, but layered, upside down density changes throughout the high density snow created notable friction underfoot on the descent. Not effortless snow, but still generally fun at speed if given an assertive pop to each turn. However, the wind affected and layered new snow did raise a few flags for stability concerns.

Weather and forecast thoughts: 

The active pattern responsible for the last storm cycle will wind down throughout the coming week (1/6-1/9), but not before another weak system brushes the area on Weds PM (1/7) bringing chances for another few inches of accumulation to the higher terrain. Temps will be at their warmest for the work week on Tues (1/6), reaching the low to mid 30s above 7000′, before falling back into the 20s for highs Weds – Fri as the approaching system brings in a reinforcing shot of cold air. Expect SW winds to pick up in advance of this next system, before slackening and switching around to the N and E on Thurs and Fri as its attendant low shifts south and eastward.

The system swinging through on Weds PM-Thurs AM will have an “inside slider” identity, bringing cold air and lighter snow amounts, so high snow levels won’t be an issue this time around. The colder airmass will bring lower density snow to rest atop the feet of high density base deposited over the holidays.

As with most inside sliders, snow totals will be generally light this week. Expect 2-5″ across the backcountry with lesser amounts across the southern half of the Tahoe Basin and at lower elevations. Models still have some spread in forecast snow amounts giving lower confidence in higher end totals.

Once the midweek system departs, NE flow will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air, preserving the new snow. Model guidance doesn’t suggest a strong NE wind event on the backside of the system, but some 10 – 15 knot breezes on ridge tops aren’t out of the question.

Looking ahead to next weekend, ridging looks to take hold over the West Coast, ushering in clear skies, light winds and moderating temps. for the weekend and well into next week (1/12-1/16). Expect the return of daily inversions with cold nights in depressions and valleys with warmer temps on the peaks, yet under a dry airmass. Model ensembles suggest high temps this weekend starting cool, then warming a few degrees each day. By early next week, temps will warm further to a few degrees above average, but likely avoiding any large scale June-uary heat events.

Considering the abysmal start to the winter, the backcountry’s actually in pretty good shape. Low sun angles, and an ample snowpack should help the backcountry weather the upcoming mild stretch quite well.

Backcountry obs:

0515 wx. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 30°F / mostly cloudy / calm winds / new snow: trace – .5″

0720 wx. at 9800′ backcountry summit: 27.0°F / 24.2°F dew point / RH 89% / mostly cloudy / winds SW 5-10mph / new snow: .5-1″

Cooler temps and some light flurries descended upon the Mt. Rose backcountry early this morning as evidenced by refrozen surface rain crusts covered with a light dusting of new snow. Snow levels at 0500 hovered around 8500′, slowly descending throughout the early morning.

On the snow, conditions are generally scratchy, crusty, and skied out. Tracks leftover from the holiday week have melted and refrozen into immovable ruts and chunks, perfect for testing supple, early season legs. Breakable crusts cover all elevations and aspects due to the uniform warmth and generally light rainfall over the past 36 hours. In untracked areas, crusts are barely supportable enough for smooth turns at speed. It’s another good early season training day.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Despite today’s break in the action, this weekend two rounds of new snow and wind will affect the Tahoe backcountry starting in the wee hours of Sat. morning (1/3), lasting through Mon. (1/5). Expect the heaviest precip. Sat AM through Sat. late afternoon, then again Sun. at daybreak through late Sun. night. By the time the storm system winds down late on Monday, another 1-2′ of new snow is likely above 7000′ with higher amounts favored on the West Shore and along the Sierra Crest. Down around lake level, precip. will start as rain and snow on Sat. morning, before transitioning to all snow late on Sat. afternoon and lasting through Mon. afternoon.

Today’s (1/2) weather has largely provided a break in the storm action with mild temps and mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Highs today will reach the low to mid 30s in most locations above 7000′ under a hazy, filtered sun.

Tonight clouds and winds increase ahead of a series of disturbances that will likely drop between 1-2′ of new snow above 7000′ from Sat – Mon (1/3-1/5) as a trough of low pressure deepens off the CA coast, ushering in colder air and ample Pacific moisture into the Sierra.

Much like previous storms this year, precip. will initially start as rain on Sat. morning as high as 7500′-8000′ before transitioning to snow throughout the day as snow levels quickly crash. By late Sat., snow levels will likely be at or just above lake level and slowly falling throughout the evening, bringing accumulating snows back to Tahoe communities through late on Mon (1/5). Much like the Christmas storm, temps may struggle to drop below freezing at lake level until colder air arrives with round 2 on Sun. However, it’ll be all snow for the backcountry above 7000′.

Unlike earlier in the week when models displayed a wide range of outcomes, latest ensemble guidance for snow levels and precip. has come into better alignment today.

After this round of storms, models hint at another cold system potentially impacting the Sierra mid-late next week bringing another refresh to the snow pack.

Looking way out into the second week of the month, ensembles suggest a ridge of high pressure building in the central-eastern Pacific, placing the Sierra in the descending branch of the jet stream in a cooler and drier than average pattern. It’s a long way out, but such patterns tend to be conducive for “inside sliders”, producing cold temps and light snow.

Buckle up. It’s about to get good again.