Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry obs.:

Over the past week, I observed the snow in the Mt. Rose area primarily on foot, running newly uncovered trails all the way up to and just above snowline. As of Fri (3/27), usable snow doesn’t begin until around 8500′, just below Tahoe Meadows. As expected, snow surfaces are heavily textured with pocked, pre sun-cupped divots and forest debris, more reminiscent of late spring and early summer.

The highest Tahoe trailheads above 8500′ still have snow, but patches of dry ground grow larger each day. Tree wells now expose bare ground and solar aspects are dry, even up to summits, limiting skiable terrain to N-E aspects in what will soon become summer patch skiing.

Where snow remains, there is still fun to be had. Refreezes above 8000′ returned this week, with increased winds and cooler temps aiding radiational cooling to firm up snow surfaces overnight. Touring from 8650′ to 9300′ at dawn on 3/27, I found supportable, refrozen crusts making travel quick and at times slippy. Below 9000′ in heavily forested areas, snow surfaces hadn’t refrozen as completely, yet were still supportable, while open areas had frozen hard. With temps climbing into the mid 40s each day, mid morning snow surfaces should soften into corn or summer schmoo, making for buttery-fun last turns.

It’s been a fun, yet short ride this season, Señor Snowpack. Thanks for your efforts, but please do better next year. You came late, doddled for a bit, then peaked with a flash, before quickly disappearing out the back door. You’re always invited, but next time, make yourself comfortable and hang out for a while.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today and tomorrow mark the end to three weeks of anomalous heat as more seasonal temperatures and showery weather return for the coming work week. Today (3/29) high temps above 7000′ will make one last return to the low-mid 60s under sunny skies, while lows tonight fall into the mid to upper 30s. Light to moderate zephyr-like winds will pick up out of the S and SW this afternoon.

Monday (3/30), increasing cloudiness and cooling temps will kick off the week presaging the arrival of a more unsettled, showery spring pattern as the dominant ridge of high pressure responsible for weeks of warmth, finally decamps. Highs will reach the low to mid 50s on Monday under a mix of clouds and sun, eventually becoming overcast. Clouds build in Mon night and by Tues (3/31) rain and high elevation snow showers look likely, lasting into late Thurs (4/2). Lows Mon night should fall into the mid 30s above 7000′.

As the ridge of high pressure moves off, a trough of low pressure will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska, with its parent low likely coming ashore near Columbia River late in the work week.

While the pattern will turn cooler and showery with snow levels falling to near lake level by midweek, this system doesn’t appear to have the dynamics and moisture to put down any significant snowfall that could hold or reverse the fortunes of the backcountry.

Upper level dynamics through the period (Tues-Fri) show weak shortwaves passing through the Sierra on Tues and Weds (3/31 and 4/1), followed by the main low coming ashore in the PacNW on Thurs (4/2). In both cases, the main lifting dynamics look weak to moderate over the Sierra, lacking the driver for any long lasting, heavy precip.

Available moisture for the above dynamics to interact and precipitate out doesn’t look very impressive either. While there will be enough to create generally spring-like rain and snow showers, models don’t currently depict any deep moisture feeds that align with the strongest dynamics, a recipe for more prolonged, heavy precip.

Model ensembles for total precip. through Fri evening (4/3) follow the same script. Modest amounts likely fall throughout the week, renewing soil moisture and keeping lower elevation trails wet and tacky, while putting down a few inches of snow for the upper elevations.

But a few inches of snow atop dirt won’t do it. Some of the highest zones above 8000′-9000′ might see up to 6″ of new snow through Fri, which could make for a few fun, end of season powder turns for the most motivated.

Looking into next weekend, skies clear out and temps look to rebound to above normal as another ridge of high pressure likely rebuilds in the Eastern Pacific.

Winter’s probably gone, but the glories of trail season await!

Backcountry obs.:

Rather than fight the weather, I’ve put away the ski gear for the time being and gotten my backcountry jollies on foot, sampling the newly available trail running opportunities through the ever expanding snow-free zones. As of 3/23, continuous, tacky, open trail exists almost uninterrupted below 7500′ on all aspects, and below 8000′ on all but protected NW-N-E aspects along the NE corner of the Tahoe Basin from the Mt. Rose backcountry to Tunnel Creek.

Snowpack starts abruptly around 8000′ on most treed aspects, but is absent on windward and solar faces all the way up to ridgelines and summits. Where snowpack does still exist, surface snow is more reminiscent of late spring/early summer, pocked and littered with forest debris and rotten from multiple nights of poor to nonexistent refreezes. In the trees, pronounced, rolling undulations are growing ever more-prominent as tree wells melt down to the ground, leaving the remnant fins and waves of deeper snowpack in between. Tree skiing is becoming necessary survival/transit skiing after better turns up high.

Above treeline and 8000′, open N and NE facing terrain is in better shape. Despite lows only bottoming out in the 40s, dry air and radiational cooling have promoted marginal surface refreezes on the majority of nights over the past week, creating supportable snow early each morning. By late morning, temps warming into the 50s under direct or slightly-filtered sunshine has overcooked corn into wet mush on most days. But with the right timing and right objective, fun spring skiing is still out there over higher terrain. The snowpack might be hammered and waning, but it’s still hanging on up high.

It’s spring and the backcountry’s primed for multi-sport days. What’s not to love about biking, running, climbing, and paddling in the same day or skiing a line and mountain biking home?

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Anomalously warm and dry — yet less record shattering — weather will continue through the week and coming weekend (3/25-3/29). Highs above 8000′ on the remaining snowpack will climb into the mid-upper 50s each day with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s in a relatively dry airmass. Expect surface snow in forests to refreeze poorly most nights, especially with any cloud cover, while open areas with a clear line of sight to the sky will cool and resolidify more efficiently each night.

Winter 2026 has been the warmest on record and the past ten days blew away any previous March records by wide margins. Equally notable is that rather than occurring over a day or two, this heatwave has persisted for well over a week–and will continue for another–with multiple waves of extreme warmth. While heat has felt like the norm this season and many folks have already switched their minds to summer activities, it’s worth taking note of the scale of the recent event. It’s truly historic.

On Mon (3/23) NWS Reno put together a graphic summarizing the situation:

The main culprit is the historically strong and resilient ridge of high pressure over the west, directing any and all weather north into Canada. Locations under the ridge bake as high pressure pushes air downward, drying it out and warming it up via subsidence.

This morning (3/24), the ridge remains locked in place, as noted by IR satellite imagery showing clear skies across CA and the jet stream shunting any moisture northward toward into BC and WA.

As a result, while not summer-warm, the next week will continue to be 10-15 degree above average as noted by ground level temperature anomalies for the coming week.

But as has happened both in December and after a bone-dry January earlier this season, eventually the pattern breaks. Models over the past few days have started to agree on a pattern shift pushing the ridge eastward and allowing a trough of low pressure to swing in its place. Cooler and wetter conditions look more likely to return by the beginning to middle of next week.

The exact details of the shift will become clearer in the coming days. For now, expect an end to late spring warmth and the return of cooler temps, and the chance of rain and higher elevation snows starting around the beginning of April.

Backcountry obs.:

The great winter heatwave of 2026 is upon us. Touring inbounds at Diamond Peak at dawn on 3/16, surface snow had barely refrozen near the base area in a protected drainage thanks to overnight inversions. Moving up mountain, snow quickly softened and temps climbed starting around 7000′ and continuing to the summit at 8540′. Light easterly winds and temps in the low 40s greeted me at the summit where snow had barely cooled enough for a weak, surface refirm.

This morning (3/17), low temps and dew points failed to refreeze surface snow, even with evaporational cooling high in the backcountry above 9000′. Temps atop Slide Mountain (9600′) only bottomed out at 46.2°F around 0400. This temperature coupled with 46% RH just wasn’t enough for snow grains to cool and refreeze on their own. It’s March 17 and even at the highest elevations in Tahoe, the snowpack is melting day and night.

As such, expect warm, soft, and slushy snow throughout the backcountry for the foreseeable future. Even after the heat wave’s peak, temps will still be well-above normal, slowing the big melt only marginally. For many backcountry zones between 7000-8500′ where the snowpack was already thin, this event will likely draw a close to the 2026 snow season.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Sunshine, light winds, and unprecedented warmth will continue through the week and into the early part of this coming weekend, likely peaking on Thurs (3/19). This weekend (3/21-22), the extreme, record-breaking heat fades into much above average warmth (10-15°F above normal) lasting through at least the first half of next week. Beyond next week, some models hint at the return of light precipitation returning, but confidence is low.

This afternoon (3/17) temps reached the low 70s in Martis Valley with mid-upper 60s between 6000′-7000′. In the Tahoe Basin within 100-200ft of lake level, temps remained a bit cooler, only reaching the low 60s due to the cooling influence of Lake Tahoe’s winter-chilled waters. Temps for the remainder of the week will climb even higher reaching the low 70s near and below 7000′ Weds – Fri (3/18-3/20). Temps may remain a few degrees lower near the lake due to the lake’s aforementioned cooling effect.

Lows throughout the week will remain above freezing all the way up to the highest backcountry locations, preventing surface refreezes. Where snowpack remains, it will likely turn isothermal (uniformly 0°C from surface to ground level). Wet snow instabilities and rockfall will become common, especially on sunny aspects and around cliff features each afternoon.

As advertised, the cause of the anomalous warmth is a large, nearly stationary ridge of high pressure that’s creating a summer-like heat dome effect over the American West. As air sinks beneath the high, it dries out and heats up via subsidence, baking away the Sierra snowpack in the process.

To get a sense of how warm this airmass actually is throughout the atmosphere, check out the ensemble models for freezing levels in the Tahoe Basin. Even the coolest models keep freezing levels above 12,000′ until Sun morning (3/22).

Is there any escape at the highest elevations? No. Even the highest elevations in the Sierra will not escape the summer-like heat. Freezing level forecasts for the Owens River watershed, which includes the Eastern High Sierra from the Palisades to Mt. Whitney, keep temps above freezing even above 14,000′ through at least Sat (3/21).

While the Southern Sierra’s high elevations helped it to fare better through the 2026 snow drought–some areas above 10k ft. received near to slightly above average snowpacks going into March–this week’s warmth will rapidly accelerate melt and promote widespread wet snow avalanches and rockfall, especially in couloirs and along rock faces. I anticipate many High Sierra lines being cleaned out and/or littered with rockfall after this week.

Peering ahead into the coming week and into the start of April, models suggest above average temps retaining the upper hand across the Sierra through the 27th, but to a less extreme degree, with some signs of precip reentering the picture. Relief is a long way off.

So grab your bike, running shoes, or whatever else brings you joy in the warm months. There’s still plenty of fun to be had in the backcountry without sliding on snow.