Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry obs.:

New snow has yet to fall on our haggard backcountry snow pack. Curious to check out what the highly anticipated new snow will fall upon, I toured in both the Mt. Rose area and along the west shore at dawn on Sun and Mon (2/8, 2/9), respectively.

In the Mt. Rose area, melt-freeze crusts exist on nearly all aspects to well above 9000′. N and NE aspects, especially in forested terrain have breakable, yet manageable crusts, while E-S-NW aspects host unbreakable hard crusts. Friday’s brief system deposited up to an inch of thick, lightly wind textured dust atop the old crusts, adding a nearly imperceptible layer of softness to each hard, scratchy turn. Descending from 9900′ on a N aspect, I found surprise pockets of cold, soft snow, but nothing lasting more than 2-3 turns.

One item of note: I discovered 6″+ of facets resting beneath a 3/4 delicate, breakable crust on an open, N aspect around 9500′. Once this layer is covered by new snowfall, it may become a source of instability, reawakening the slumbering avalanche demons.

Along the west shore conditions have taken a much bigger hit from the recent warmth. Gone are the fields of crystalline surface hoar lower down and chalky wind board up high. Between 7000’-8000’, all aspects are baked into supportable melt freeze crusts. Open areas near and just above 7000’ have really taken a hit with the the snow pack shrinking into deflated pillow stage, more reminiscent of late April than early February. Scrubby underbrush and patches of rocks and dirt have begun to reemerge.

What’s more, abundant runoff has kicked off. Open streams proliferate, requiring tricky crossings on unstable, degraded snow. Many streams never really froze from the fall and have been recently reenergized by the warmth-induced melt. Gurgling waters make for a soothing — and simultaneously discomforting—backcountry soundtrack.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

After more than a month without appreciable snow, a doddling storm arrives later today loaded with an appreciable refresh (8-12″) for the Tahoe backcountry above 7000′, especially along the crest. Seasonably cool temps and sunshine return behind the first system for Thurs – Sat (2/12-2/14), before another more impactful storm arrives later this weekend with a solid shot of a proper multi-day dump of Sierra snow.

This morning (2/10), abundant clouds, light to moderate winds, and generally cool temps preface the arrival of the storm. Inversions are gone with temps ranging from upper 20s to low 30s near 6000′ to low 20s along the crest. Precip continues to hold off, however, and will likely not start in earnest until later this afternoon. Tonight snow picks up, especially on the western side of the Basin and along the Sierra Crest, lasting into most of Weds (2/11) before tapering off into intermittent snow showers Weds night into Thurs. Snowfall totals will generally be light around the lake (2-4″), while greater amounts fall on the west shore.

IR satellite imagery early this morning shows today’s system spinning off the Central Coast.

High res models bring the storm east to the CA coastline later today, but then suggest it stalling and spinning about somewhere between Monterrey and San Francisco, sending waves of rain and snow into the Sierra this afternoon through Weds.

Total liquid amounts through Thurs just before sunrise suggest up to 1″+ throughout the Sierra, likely translating to 8-12″+ of moderately dense new snow above 7000′.

Snow levels for this storm look to start out around 6500′ later this afternoon with freezing levels near 7000′, before falling through the night and into tomorrow morning, then rising back to near lake level throughout the day on Wednesday (2/11).

Forecast confidence is moderate in the snow level due to the swings in freezing levels noted above, even during the storm. While there is just enough cold air in place for mainly snow throughout the Tahoe Basin, it is borderline. A warmer than normal Eastern Pacific, the source of the moisture coming into the Sierra, also lingers as a background warm signal for each system, especially for those that linger and spin over the area for a while. The longer a cold air mass resides over the warm ocean, the more opportunity it has to moderate.

The storm wraps up with the exception of lingering showers along the higher terrain for Weds night into Thurs (2/12) bringing light additional accumulations.

Thurs and Fri (2/12-2/13) sunshine and near average temps return with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low 20s across the backcountry.

Signs of the next — and likely more impactful — storm arrive on Saturday (2/14) with high clouds and increased winds. Models continue to align around the possibility of a multi-day, cold Sierra storm: a proper “banger” bringing feet of new snow, possibly down to 5000′. The start of the storm has been pushed back to early Sun (2/15), but lasting through the middle of the coming week with snow at or below lake level for the entire storm cycle.

Climate Prediction Center guidance over the past two days has also consistently favored an outcome with >80% of 2’+ for the Sierra above 7000′. A promising sign.

More to come on this storm sequence as it gets closer.

It’s been a long time coming, but the snow ordered weeks ago looks to finally arrive in the coming days.

Backcountry obs.:

Conditions in the backcountry remained largely stable throughout the week with no new snow under the continuation of the recent warm, dry pattern. Obs from tours on the East Shore near Diamond Peak on Weds (2/4) and Fri (2/6) showed supportable, well-worn surface crusts on most aspects, making made for chattery descents, while zones with pure southerly exposure and sufficiently deep snow pack hosted creamy corn snow, if timed correctly. Non supportable, cold, crispy crust with a few inches of old, cold snow still held on in isolated high elevation, sheltered N-E facing terrain.

Evidence of the changing pattern arrived on Fri AM with a blanket of persistent high cloudiness and moderate SW winds. By afternoon, an inch+ of new snow fell across the highest elevations (8500’+), while a few rain showers spritzed lower elevations. .06″ of rain fell at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay.

Still skiing? Good on ya! It’s been a rough go for those wanting fresh turns on smooth, fluffy snow. But dry spells do bring opportunities for backcountry exploration, resort training laps, or dabbling in other sports. Luckily the big pattern shift shown in model guidance from earlier in the week has held on. Change is in the cards.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

A month of Ullr Fests, snow dances, and screaming at the sky will finally pay off in the coming weeks as the pattern shift from warm and dry to cool and wet finally returns to the Sierra starting early next week (2/9) and continuing into the week after the holiday weekend. While cold and beneficial storms do return, none jump out as overly impactful, at least for the coming week. Substantial refreshes with snow down to lake level look most likely, while massive dumps seem less likely, at least initially.

For the coming weekend (2/7-2/8), warm dry conditions return after the cloudy, spritzy interlude yesterday and early today (2/6) as a shortwave ridge of high pressure returns. Expect highs across the backcountry to again reach the low to mid 40s above 7000′ on both Sat and Sun with lows dropping to near or just below freezing over ridges and summits each night, while valleys and depressions cool well into the 20s under a modestly inverted air mass. After sun returns on Sat, expect high clouds to stream into the area, increasing in coverage on Sun.

Changes really start to work in on Mon and Tues (2/9-2/10) as the first decent chance for accumulating snows returns to the Sierra with the pattern shift from warm ridging to cool troughing. As noted below, one system takes aim for the late Mon-Weds time frame with another arriving for the coming weekend (2/14).

Models will evolve with details coming into focus as time progresses with each storm.

Looking more closely at the early-midweek storm, models initially suggest a decent refresh of the snow pack for all elevations. Snow levels will start between 7000-8000′ as precip arrives late Mon into the lingering warmth, but will then fall to below lake level overnight and into Tues (2/10) as a new, colder air mass overtakes the region.

Snow looks to start out on Mon evening, falling through Tues and into early Weds before tapering off. By storm’s end, model ensembles suggest around 1-1.25″ of liquid could fall across the backcountry with highest amounts favored along the Sierra Crest. This translates into roughly 6-12″+ of new, well-deserved snowfall.

Diving a bit deeper into the first system, 500mb vorticity indicates decent dynamics with a nearly perpendicular upper level flow to the Sierra, ideal for maximizing orographic lift, which helps to squeeze moisture out of the atmosphere.

The main limiting factor with the system will be the total available moisture able to be wrung out of the sky. There’s not a ton of moisture with this first system, but enough given the favorable dynamics.

Beyond the early to midweek system, another, more significant storm could impact the Sierra through the holiday weekend along with continued cold temperatures.

Finally, the return to winter is upon us. Bring on the cold, fluffy turns!

Backcountry Obs:

After receiving only 1-3″ of snow on 1/28, the only snow since 1/8, backcountry snow surfaces are in the exact condition one might expect in a snow drought situation. Melt freeze snow and mostly supportable, dense, old crusts cover all but the most sheltered N and NE aspects. Cold, protected zones host areas of wind buffed vintage powder, mostly remnants of the 1/28 disturbance sitting atop cold and decaying windboard and crust. Solar aspects have decent mid-winter corn snow, ripe for carving during the midday hours.

A predawn tour of the Mt. Rose backcountry between 8650′-9820 on 2/2 revealed a still skiable, yet athletic and chattery snow pack hammered by weeks of use with nonexistent natural improvement. I was delighted to find that upper elevation coverage remains excellent thanks to the feet of dense base deposited in the last weeks of 2025. Even after weeks of warm, dry weather, low sun angles prevented the catastrophic melt out one might expect given the recent weather. Below 8000′ where the holiday storms dropped more rain than snow, melt-out concerns are very real, especially on solar aspects.

While the season has felt grim for weeks, I believe it’ll be remembered as the year with two springs: mid-winter and actual, interrupted with stormy intervals providing just enough snow to create a backcountry season. After weeks of dread, model guidance looks to finally hint at a pattern change and return to winter in weeks ahead.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Mid-winter spring holds strong for the remainder of this work week as high pressure rebuilds over the area Tues-Thurs (2/3-2/6), before beginning to erode away later in the week and into the coming weekend (2/7-2/9). In the Sierra, this translates to more warm, mostly sunny days and clear cold nights. Above 7000′, high temps will easily hit the mid 40s through Sat (2/7). Inversions will remain persistent with valleys and depressions quickly cooling each night into the 20s, while ridge tops and summits stay above freezing, but locked in a bone dry atmosphere. For example, as of this writing at 0515 on 2/3 it’s 41°F on the 9650′ summit of Slide Mountain, but with a -11°F dew point! Despite the warmth, such dry air keeps snow surfaces frozen via evaporational cooling.

Models suggest some high cloud cover returning by Thurs (2/5), lingering about into the weekend under a “dirty ridge” scenario as the recent dry pattern slowly begins breaking down into something resembling a stormier pattern for the Sierra.

Over the past few days, model ensembles have fallen into decent agreement showing the warm, dry pattern transitioning towards a more sustained, stormy pattern in the coming weeks. A big picture look at 500mb heights helps tell the story.

The ridge of high pressure (oranges and reds) hangs on across the west early in the week, but by Thurs (2/5), its axis begins leaning back towards the west. (Notice the bend in the black thickness lines.) This is known as a negative tilt, often indicative of weakening. Underneath the ridge, a weak cutoff low begins to form as noted by the closed 576 line off Baja, Mexico.

And concurrently, another trough of low pressure develops over the Pacific as noted by the dip in thickness lines and blue shading about 800-1000 miles due west of San Francisco Bay. While these features will not bring any precip. to the Sierra, they do suggest a breakdown of the persistent ridge responsible for weeks of warm, dry weather.

Right on the heels of these disturbances, a modest shortwave ridge rebuilds and swings through northern CA on Sunday.

But right on its heels, a trough of low pressure drops in on Monday, signaling the next chance for snow in the Sierra.

Precip. models going into the beginning of next week largely agree on the return of rain and snowfall across northern CA and the Tahoe Sierra. And storminess could continue through the coming week.

While precip. amounts don’t appear particularly noteworthy, considering the state of the winter for the past month, they could provide a meaningful refresh to the snow pack and backcountry skier outlook for the remainder of the season.