Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry obs: 

0500 temp at 8400′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 23 deg. New snow: 2-3+’.

The backcountry’s doing alright. A multi-day day storm from 2026’s first weekend dropped feet of new snow across the area above 7000′., with the greatest amounts focused along the Sierra Crest. Much like the Christmas storm cycle, the recent storms were not all that cold, starting as rain at higher elevations, before cooling off just enough to allow feet of high density cement to further deepen the snowpack. Despite the warmth, the storms bolstered the snowpack giving the nascent season a bit more longevity should prolonged drier weather move in. 

Touring above Incline Village at dawn on Mon. (1/5), I found multiple feet of new, wind affected snow starting at 8400′ all the way to 9500′. Ski tracks from the previous day had been either filled or sculpted into elegant mounds and fins. Even in sheltered forested areas, winds had added texture and density changes to the new snow. In open areas, a soft, breakable wind board had formed with notable, yet nonreactive wind slabs across lee micro-features. Sheltered trees held the least affected snow, but layered, upside down density changes throughout the high density snow created notable friction underfoot on the descent. Not effortless snow, but still generally fun at speed if given an assertive pop to each turn. However, the wind affected and layered new snow did raise a few flags for stability concerns.

Weather and forecast thoughts: 

The active pattern responsible for the last storm cycle will wind down throughout the coming week (1/6-1/9), but not before another weak system brushes the area on Weds PM (1/7) bringing chances for another few inches of accumulation to the higher terrain. Temps will be at their warmest for the work week on Tues (1/6), reaching the low to mid 30s above 7000′, before falling back into the 20s for highs Weds – Fri as the approaching system brings in a reinforcing shot of cold air. Expect SW winds to pick up in advance of this next system, before slackening and switching around to the N and E on Thurs and Fri as its attendant low shifts south and eastward.

The system swinging through on Weds PM-Thurs AM will have an “inside slider” identity, bringing cold air and lighter snow amounts, so high snow levels won’t be an issue this time around. The colder airmass will bring lower density snow to rest atop the feet of high density base deposited over the holidays.

As with most inside sliders, snow totals will be generally light this week. Expect 2-5″ across the backcountry with lesser amounts across the southern half of the Tahoe Basin and at lower elevations. Models still have some spread in forecast snow amounts giving lower confidence in higher end totals.

Once the midweek system departs, NE flow will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air, preserving the new snow. Model guidance doesn’t suggest a strong NE wind event on the backside of the system, but some 10 – 15 knot breezes on ridge tops aren’t out of the question.

Looking ahead to next weekend, ridging looks to take hold over the West Coast, ushering in clear skies, light winds and moderating temps. for the weekend and well into next week (1/12-1/16). Expect the return of daily inversions with cold nights in depressions and valleys with warmer temps on the peaks, yet under a dry airmass. Model ensembles suggest high temps this weekend starting cool, then warming a few degrees each day. By early next week, temps will warm further to a few degrees above average, but likely avoiding any large scale June-uary heat events.

Considering the abysmal start to the winter, the backcountry’s actually in pretty good shape. Low sun angles, and an ample snowpack should help the backcountry weather the upcoming mild stretch quite well.

Backcountry obs:

0515 wx. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 30°F / mostly cloudy / calm winds / new snow: trace – .5″

0720 wx. at 9800′ backcountry summit: 27.0°F / 24.2°F dew point / RH 89% / mostly cloudy / winds SW 5-10mph / new snow: .5-1″

Cooler temps and some light flurries descended upon the Mt. Rose backcountry early this morning as evidenced by refrozen surface rain crusts covered with a light dusting of new snow. Snow levels at 0500 hovered around 8500′, slowly descending throughout the early morning.

On the snow, conditions are generally scratchy, crusty, and skied out. Tracks leftover from the holiday week have melted and refrozen into immovable ruts and chunks, perfect for testing supple, early season legs. Breakable crusts cover all elevations and aspects due to the uniform warmth and generally light rainfall over the past 36 hours. In untracked areas, crusts are barely supportable enough for smooth turns at speed. It’s another good early season training day.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Despite today’s break in the action, this weekend two rounds of new snow and wind will affect the Tahoe backcountry starting in the wee hours of Sat. morning (1/3), lasting through Mon. (1/5). Expect the heaviest precip. Sat AM through Sat. late afternoon, then again Sun. at daybreak through late Sun. night. By the time the storm system winds down late on Monday, another 1-2′ of new snow is likely above 7000′ with higher amounts favored on the West Shore and along the Sierra Crest. Down around lake level, precip. will start as rain and snow on Sat. morning, before transitioning to all snow late on Sat. afternoon and lasting through Mon. afternoon.

Today’s (1/2) weather has largely provided a break in the storm action with mild temps and mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Highs today will reach the low to mid 30s in most locations above 7000′ under a hazy, filtered sun.

Tonight clouds and winds increase ahead of a series of disturbances that will likely drop between 1-2′ of new snow above 7000′ from Sat – Mon (1/3-1/5) as a trough of low pressure deepens off the CA coast, ushering in colder air and ample Pacific moisture into the Sierra.

Much like previous storms this year, precip. will initially start as rain on Sat. morning as high as 7500′-8000′ before transitioning to snow throughout the day as snow levels quickly crash. By late Sat., snow levels will likely be at or just above lake level and slowly falling throughout the evening, bringing accumulating snows back to Tahoe communities through late on Mon (1/5). Much like the Christmas storm, temps may struggle to drop below freezing at lake level until colder air arrives with round 2 on Sun. However, it’ll be all snow for the backcountry above 7000′.

Unlike earlier in the week when models displayed a wide range of outcomes, latest ensemble guidance for snow levels and precip. has come into better alignment today.

After this round of storms, models hint at another cold system potentially impacting the Sierra mid-late next week bringing another refresh to the snow pack.

Looking way out into the second week of the month, ensembles suggest a ridge of high pressure building in the central-eastern Pacific, placing the Sierra in the descending branch of the jet stream in a cooler and drier than average pattern. It’s a long way out, but such patterns tend to be conducive for “inside sliders”, producing cold temps and light snow.

Buckle up. It’s about to get good again.

Backcountry obs.:

While beneficial snowfall and abundant powder graced the final week of 2025 across the Tahoe Sierra, the last day of the year featured warm, cooked snow and generally sloppy conditions in the backcountry.

Dawn broke this morning with overcast skies, inverted temps, warm winds, and cooked powder on the West Shore. Ascending from 7000′, temps at 0530 hovered at or just below freezing and large surface hoar coated the snow surface in open areas along still-open creeks. Ascending out of the drainage on a north facing slope, temps quickly warmed into the mid 30s and the forest hissed with the sound of water dripping off tree limbs onto soft snow beneath. Topping out at 8500′, balmy temps hovered around 40°F with a 36°F dew point. I could almost taste the warm, salty air mass inbound from the subtropics.

The snow skied as expected: warm, grabby, and strenuous. Good early season training. Lingering lower elevation inversions held the best snow and fastest turns. Too bad they were only a few hundred feet above the car. Now come the rains.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

For the rest of the week, the backcounty will enter a reset period with warmth and rain reaching the highest Tahoe summits Thurs (1/1) and Fri (1/2) before cold air and snow return, deepening and refreshing the backcountry above 7000′. This weekend two pulses of moisture and cold air will likely drop between 1-2′ of new snow above 7000′, while lower elevations see a mix of rain and snow, eventually turning to all snow late Sat through the remainder of the weekend. Early next week models depict more cold storminess with additional impulses shipping more snow inbound to Tahoe.

Today through early Friday (12/31-1/2) a warm, wet low will bring light to moderate rainfall across all backcountry areas, spoiling whatever good snow remains.

While the current system is warm with snow levels above 10k’, its approach from the south, coupled with weak dynamic forcing will limit rainfall amounts to less than 1″ through New Years Day, with lesser amounts east of the Sierra Crest. Snow levels eventually fall on New Years Day, just in time for precip to end.

Friday (1/2) will be mostly dry and cool with a few errant showers possible across the mountains. Temps will be in the 20s to low 30s above 7000′ under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

By early Sat morning (1/3), another storm, this time much colder, approaches Tahoe from the NW with abundant moisture, dynamics, and a colder air mass. Snow levels will start around 7000′ with the Sat. storm, then quickly fall to near lake level by Sat. evening. A foot of snow could fall above 7000′, especially near the crest, erasing the damage done by recent warm temps and rain.

Snow showers, at times heavy, will continue into Sat. night and into Sunday (1/4), becoming steadier as the day progresses, as another impulse impacts the region, bringing more snow to all elevations. By Sun. night, another foot could accumulate in the backcountry above 7000′ with lesser amounts down to lake level.

Here’s a look at GEFS ensemble guidance for freezing levels through Weds. (1/7). Colder air looks to filter in with time along with more chances for snow through early next week.

Worth noting is the significant model spread, ie uncertainty, from Fri. onward. Much could still change as it has over the past 36 hours. Recently models have been trending wetter for the weekend storms and pushing the heaviest precip to Sun.

Despite a bit of sloppiness on New Year’s Eve, the atmosphere looks to get its act together in the name of good snow going into 2026. Happy New Year!