Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0415 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 36.1 deg. & 80% RH

0530 temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 26 deg. w/wind driven flurries

Backcountry obs.:

Gusty winds out of the SW shook the car upon arrival at the TH this morning. On the mountain, strong winds and wind-driven snow graupel provided nice facial exfoliation in the skintrack. Surfaces from the TH to the summit are a mix of crusts, deep ruts and tracks and the occasional stash of cold, soft snow. With the noticeably higher solar angle, snow surfaces are largely dictated by aspect: those with the most southern exposure have the thickest, most supportable crusts, while E and NE aspects hold breakable crusts. Only protected, true N aspects and shaded zones beneath trees hold cold, soft snow.

The warmth and traffic of the past few days has taken its toll on the backcountry and the modest inbound refresh is very much welcome.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Expect strong and gusty SW winds today with snow showers picking up in intensity through the afternoon hours, tapering off after dark. Highs will reach the upper 30’s in mountain communities and not make it above freezing for most backcountry zones. Total accumulations for the area will be light with a coating to an inch around the lake with up to 4-6″ in the mountains before the system kicks out to the east.

Tues. and Weds. will be fair and seasonably chilly with sunshine and highs Tues. around 40 at lake level, moderating 5-10 more degrees for Weds. Lows both nights will be in the 10’s to 20’s from lake level to the backcountry.

Now the big story: a high impact winter storm looks very likely to move into the Tahoe Sierra Thurs. through through the weekend dropping heavy snows at all elevations. A deep low associated with a strong attendant jet stream will drop in from the Gulf of Alaska Thurs.-Sat. bringing high winds, heavy snows and cold temps. This storm will bring feet of snow to the Sierra – and it’s looking ever more likely that big snows fall at lake level too. This morning’s Euro ensemble shows total precip. amounts through Sun. between 4-6″ of water, which could translate to multiple feet of snow on the mountains through the weekend. Colder temps. will also help to boost snow/water ratios. Models are also very consistent in their representation of the track and intensity of this storm across models and ensembles, quite a different tune from the rest of the 2024 winter.

In addition to the snow, this storm will bring high winds making utility interruptions a real possibility. It might not be a bad idea to stock up on essentials in the coming days.

Bottom line: a big, cold storm reminiscent of 2023 is likely to hit Tahoe this weekend…

Forecast and weather thoughts:

I’ve been out on the East Coast for the past week. It’s good to be back in Tahoe to get back into the 2024 winter weather narrative.

This afternoon winds have come up from the SW along with some streaks of high clouds approaching from the NW. Despite this, temps. around the lake have flirted with 50 from Carnelian down to SLT. This glimpse of spring will end abruptly tonight with the arrival of a weak storm system.

Winds and clouds will increase this evening and likely give way to some rain showers by daybreak, transitioning to snow around the lake tomorrow morning. Snow showers should prevail for most of tomorrow before tapering off tomorrow evening. With some luck, backcountry areas could see up to 6″ of new snow by Monday night. Sierra communities will be lucky to see more than an inch.

Cold air behind this system will make things feel again like winter with lows tomorrow night back into the teens and low 20’s with highs on Tues. in the upper 20’s and 30’s. Temps will moderate on Weds. under sunny skies before the next round of big snow approaches the area.

Both the GFS and Euro model are in agreement with a significant cycle of big snow targeting the Tahoe Sierra starting Thurs. and lasting potentially through the weekend. These storms will come in from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska, a classic scenario bringing cold, unstable air and plenty of moisture into the Sierra.

Winter looks far from over.

0400 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 29.1 deg. & 98% RH

8” new storm snow

0500 temp at 8400’ Incline Peak TH: 24 deg.

10-18″ observed new storm snow

Backcountry obs.:

Last night’s storm dropped a healthy refresh of a nearly a foot plus in the Incline Peak zone. At 5:00am moderate snow and SW winds continued to affect the area. Throughout the dawn hours winds eased and snowfall diminished just after dawn. Low, dense cloud cover has held on throughout the morning.

Apart from wind effect noted on open areas near former Incline Lake, little wind effect was noted from bottom to top of the peak. The summit had surprisingly few obvious wind slabs/pillows on lee aspects. Surface snow had some light texture at the summit, but still skied soft, smooth, and powdery.

Digging a few hasty pits revealed some moderate shears within the new snow. However, ski cuts above avalanche terrain and its subsequent skiing did not trigger any instabilities, sluffs included. The new snow appears right side up and increases in depth as you gain elevation on the peak.

Quality-wise, this storm dropped classicly dense Sierra powder. It’s not soppy cement, nor light and blower, but fluffy and forgiving hero pow. For best results and maximum enjoyment, apply speed to elongated turns on steep slopes and weeeee!

The skiing’s great this morning. Go get it.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

After a few days of warmth and calm, last night’s storm signaled the return to an active pattern in the Sierra. Over the next week, at least two more systems look likely to impact the area.

Today expect mostly cloudy skies with diminishing snow showers dropping negligible new snow. Highs around the lake will top out in the mid-upper 30’s while backcountry zones should remain near to well below freezing. Tonight skies begin to break and temps will respond by cooling well into the teens and 20’s.

Fri. through Sat. morning expect a break with sunshine returning and temps in upper 30’s to low 40’s both days. Snow on solar aspects and lower elevation zones should thicken and crust over with the warmth and subsequent freezing temps each night.

Sat. night through Sun. am another system comes into the Sierra from the W. arriving on a zonal (mild) track. Snow levels may be a bit higher than last night’s storm (6500-7000+’). Snowfall amounts also look slightly lower with 6-8″ possible above 8000′, maybe more for zones up along the crest. The track and warmth of this system will likely promote denser snow, especially along the Sierra crest.

Sun. night through Tues./Weds. another potentially more significant storm will impact the region. This storm is will have a strong subtropical moisture tap thanks to a robust Pacific jet extension over SoCal/Northern Baja. The jet will phase with a meandering low that posts up somewhere offshore between southern Oregon and NorCal. The result: a few days of consistent precip. for the Sierra, with the heaviest snowfall likely favoring the central and southern Sierra.

Snow levels are tough to pin down at this point as models don’t suggest a particularly cold or warm event. Expect snow levels to hover around lake level plus or minus a few hundred feet. Confidence in a solid snowfall (1-3 feet) is pretty good for the backcountry and zones above 7000′, but diminishes for lower areas. A subtropical moisture fetch and lack of any strong cold signal make a big dump of heavy snow for lower and mid elevations seem unlikely. Time will tell.

Looking beyond, the pattern continues to look unsettled with the potential for more snow into next weekend (Feb. 24 – 25). Keep it up, winter.