Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.9 deg. & 81% RH

0515 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 27 deg.

1-3″ new windblown snow

Backcountry obs.:

This morning the last system in the recent series of weak disturbances impacted Tahoe with little more than a few flurries and gusty winds. A smidgeon of new snow coated the ground this morning in Carnelian Bay, while above 8000′ in the Rose backcountry, 1-3″ of new natural snow had fallen in the past day.

Consistent SW winds had filled in many of the previous skier tracks from the weekend with only a few crusty edges peering out from the newly buffed out surface. As expected, open areas present a mix of refrozen crusts and buffed out crusty tracks as what little snow that’s been falling, fills in. Sheltered areas in the trees are harvesting the new snow better as a more consistent, 1-3″ of soft buff covers the preexisting old, cold, pre-storm powder.

The skiing is still fun: mainly soft, buffed out powder in the trees and scratchy dust on crust in exposed and steeper terrain. Understanding how to sniff out any small wind deposits is key to maximizing soft turns. It’s a good day for some all-mountain, variable snow training.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Today’s unsettled conditions bringing mostly cloudy skies, occasional snow showers, and gusty winds will continue through the afternoon. Showers may become a bit more convective with afternoon heating late in the day, producing bursts of snow and/or pellet showers. Highs will reach the upper 30s in mountain communities with 20s and 30s in the backcountry. Little, if any, new snow accumulation is expected.

Behind today’s system skies begin clearing and temps drop this evening well into the teens and 20s. Tomorrow expect another cool, breezy day in the upper 30s/low 40s with clouds and sun and winds out of the N.

Weds. night through Fri. AM, winds will shift around to the N and E in response to a building ridge of high pressure off the coast interacting with a trough of low pressure to our E. The gradient will produce strong E winds that will likely strip most cold, unconsolidated snow from NE facing aspects. Goodbye powder.

Fri. through the weekend, sunny skies are still no tap with temps. warming each day. By early next week, highs should reach the low to mid 50s around the lake, with cold nights allowing for snow surface refreezes. Corn snow, here we come.

Beyond the middle of next week, some models begin diverging in their solutions for the middle to end of March. Looking at the upper level flow models in the Pacific, there’s quite a bit of flux. Some runs suggest the strong ridge of high pressure arriving this weekend to lift N and E, with the subtropical branch of the jet reinvigorating near SoCal. This would allow storms to sneak in from the S. While other models suggest another blocking ridge redeveloping near the west coast, keeping us warm and dry.

Spring is nigh; expect change.

0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 30.9 deg. & 87% RH

1″ new snow

Backcountry obs.:

Despite the dry weather and gusty winds, backcountry conditions in the Rose zone around Incline and Relay Peaks this weekend provided a fun mixed bag of crusts, wind effect, and delightful, cold powder in sheltered N facing aspects. Traffic has been heavy in the area, so clean lines are rare in the most popular areas close to trailheads.

The most protected, N. facing trees and micro deposition aspects are still collecting and holding cold snow. Areas with solar and/or wind exposure are covered with a mix of breakable and unbreakable crusts. S aspects near lake level have begun to show signs of baby corn, which will likely expand and climb higher as temps warm and the sun grows stronger with each passing day. It won’t be long (a few days) until the focus shifts from skiing powder to skiing corn.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Some light snow this morning has provided a minor refresh to the backcountry snow from the weekend. Today, expect an overcast morning with a few stray snow showers with the potential for some clearing by midday as the current disturbance moves out of the area. Highs today will approach 40 around lake level and stay near to below freezing in the backcountry. Expect moderate SW winds to prevail and pick up yet again this afternoon with the approach of our next system.

This evening another minor storm system moves in producing gusty winds and light snow that will continue through tomorrow morning before tapering off. Snow totals will range from an inch or two in mountain communities, to up to an additional 6-8″ in the mountains and along the crest. Winds will also pick up out of the SW again this afternoon and evening, increasing tomorrow during the day before backing off a bit Tues. evening. Highs tomorrow will reach the upper 30s around lake level and remain in the 20s and low 30s in the backcountry. Behind the system temps will cool off with lows in town in the low 20s on Tues. night, teens in the mountains.

The weather really starts drying out in a prolonged fashion beginning Weds., but not before a potentially significant – and powder destroying – NE wind event Weds.-Thurs. A building ridge of high pressure off the coast will interact with a cold, dry low dropping through the Great Basin on Weds. The steep gradient between the deep low and the strengthening high will create strong, potentially damaging NE winds for Tahoe communities that will almost certainly strip any cold snow that falls over the next two days from NE aspects and toss it into oblivion. Expect wind hammered conditions on all aspects when it’s all over.

Luckily the Tahoe Sierra finally has a snowpack, so what’s left behind or ground into wind board will likely endure what’s next: a warm up and dry spell, potentially transforming the snow into the second best thing to powder: Sierra corn.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure off the coast responsible for the midweek wind event, will strengthen and move over the area late week through the weekend blocking any chance for precip. and warming up temps 5-10 deg. above average. Expect sunny skies from Thurs. through the weekend and into next week with highs warming into the upper 40s to low 50s by the weekend at lake level. Temps appear to cool efficiently each night, refreezing whatever surface snow melts during the day. This repetition of melt and freeze under sunny skies is the recipe for Sierra’s best corn. Time it right and enjoy!

Looking way out to next week, there are some signs of a trough of low pressure returning unsettled weather to the area, but the corn fest could continue as well. Time will tell.

0630 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 22.8 deg. & 88% RH

0520 temp. at 8400’ Incline Peak TH: 16 deg.

2-4” new snow

Backcountry Obs.:

Expectations for cold, soft snow were next to nothing when I set out this morning. Lo and behold, as soon as the skintrack began climbing Incline Peak, I was delighted to find 2-4″ of new, cold snow atop the windblown, battered surface from the last storm system. Yesterday’s (3/7) round of afternoon snow showers appears to have left some accumulation that touched up the surface with cold, soft fluff, vastly improving ski conditions from Weds. Tracks and ruts from user traffic over the past week still persist, but the additional few inches of snow has softened the wind buffeted surface left behind from last weekend’s big storm. There’s nothing like a little surprise mountain magic to kick off a Friday!

Winds this morning were moderate out of the NE transporting snow along ridgelines and in open areas, but were not strong enough to significantly degrade the surface. Snow transport and deposition was enough to produce small, sensitive wind slabs on lee aspects. A ski cut on a cross loaded gully produced a propagating wind slab – only 2-3″ deep – that released and ran the length of the gully on a bed surface of windboard/suncrust.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

It feels like today is the first truly bluebird day we’ve had in a while. Temps around the lake are in the low 40s with 30s in the backcountry under sunny skies. Expect a cold clear night tonight.

Tomorrow sunshine and similar temps will return, along with an increase in SW winds and the arrival of some clouds presaging the next series of disturbances set to arrive Sun. through Weds.

Sun. night light snows return to the Tahoe Sierra with a few inches (2-4″) possible in mountain communities with maybe 6-8″ accumulating by Mon. morning in the backcountry. Points N and along the crest will likely receive the highest amounts. Snows taper off on Mon. with highs again reaching the upper 30s.

But wait, there’s more! High on the heels of the Sun. PM-Mon. AM system, another disturbance arrives Mon. night into Tues. with chances for more accumulating snows. This system will be similar to the one before it dropping modest amounts, but enough to contribute to a decent refresh from the weekend traffic and prolific wind effect left from last week’s storm. In total, backcountry zones could see an additional 6-12″ from both storms by Weds.

Looking beyond, models show signs of a strong ridge of high pressure building into the west coast around midweek and holding court through at least next weekend, possibly longer. This would bring a series of days with clear skies, warm daytime temps and hopefully cold nights: an ideal setup for the first solid corn cycle of the winter.