Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0600 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 27.0 deg. & 95%RH

New snowfall: 9”

Backcountry obs.:

New snow and little wind overnight will create superb conditions today.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Bands of snow showers will continue adding to the already respectable new snow amounts from yesterday’s storm. Expect up to another foot in the mountains today through Sun. morning.

Early next week skies clear and temps warm into the 50s as a transient ridge swings through the area.

Later in the week another trough of low pressure looks to arrive to Tahoe brining rounds of snow showers late in the week and into next weekend, potentially brining more spring powder to the backcountry.

Get it!

0430 temp. at 6350′: 30.2 deg. & 85% RH

New snowfall: 3″

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 16 deg.

New snowfall: 6-10″

Backcountry obs.:

This morning a measly 3″ of thick, new snow coated the ground just above lake level. As expected, totals increased dramatically with elevation and 6-10″ of cold, new, right side up snow had completely reset the backcountry in the Mt. Rose area.

Gusty winds from the SW – NW accompanied last night’s storm creating various textures and patterns (all soft) across the snow surface and a wide distribution of observable new snow totals. Some areas appeared to have no more than 6″ while others approached a foot. All previous tracks and crusts have been completely covered and are imperceptible underfoot.

While no obvious instabilities occurred while breaking trail to the summit, active windloading occurred on N-E-S aspects throughout the early morning. I anticipated unstable wind slabs on lee facing chutes and bowls, but did not trigger any instabilities despite my intentional efforts. The new snow appeared to have bonded well with underlying soft snow and crusts, and becomes generally lighter towards the top.

All this to say that the skiing is, once again, excellent. Another storm has wandered in and reset the snowpack, allowing skiers to lay down fresh tracks on a deep base. The new snow isn’t blower, but invites opening up elongated, fast powder turns with a springy base and not a hint of crust or hardness underfoot. Today’s a day to open it up and rip the most elegant line possible.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

March 2024 stands out as the gold star month of the winter. It started out with a massive dump of over 60″ at lake level and is now set to finish with a week-long parade of cold, medium-sized storms dropping just enough powder to reset the snow surface with cold, fun snow that has been largely stable.

Looking at the forecast, today will be partly cloudy and cold with highs around the lake in the middle 30s, 20s for the backcountry above 8000′. The strong sun angle and breaks in the clouds will heat up the new snow just enough to form crusts and density changes in sun-exposed areas, but persistent cloud cover will hopefully keep this less widespread than if today were completely bluebird. Tonight will be cold and partly cloudy.

Tomorrow another system arrives just in time for the weekend. Models this morning are trending wetter as the much-watched cut-off low taps into subtropical moisture as it drops south along the West Coast. This won’t be a big storm by Sierra standards, but has the potential to put down more snow than last night’s system over a longer period of time.

Snow showers will pick up in number and intensity tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow night, continuing through Sat. and Sun. before tapering off Sun. evening. Zones above 8000′ and along the crest will receive the highest snow totals, however, decent amounts (3-8″) can be expected around town by storm’s end. In the backcountry up to 6″ falling every 12 hours or so from Fri. PM through Sun. AM looks probable. Temps will be in the 20s at night and 30s during the day with lower values in the mountains. The high sun angle will add instability to the atmosphere each afternoon, promoting convective showers that could put down brief periods of heavy snow (1-3″ per hour). A clap of thunder Sat. and Sun. afternoon isn’t out of the question with these showers.

By the time the system wraps up late Sun., another 12-16″ in the backcountry isn’t out of the question, maybe more if the storm wobbles a bit closer to our area and/or the subtropical jet kicks in a bit more than expected.

Next week starts out with a ridge of high pressure moving into the area promoting warmer temps and sunshine. Spring will return as highs climb into the 50s with lows dipping to freezing and below each night.

Later in the week, more cold, unsettled weather is showing up in medium range forecasts. A return to the cool, showery pattern looks possible, hopefully delivering more spring powder refreshes. Keep it comin’!

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.9 deg. & 88% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ at Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

I headed out today to see how the current sun angle is affecting the snow surface despite cold daytime temps yesterday. In general, any aspect that is open and not facing due N, now has some sort of solar crust, ranging from supportable – but barely edgeable – to breakable and able to quickly toss any backcountry traveler into dreaded combat skiing.

Cold powder is still tenuously holding on in N facing trees and in open bowls and chutes with a steep enough pitch to promote shade and weak sun angles on the snow surface. These zones are still offering delightful skiing.

As the sun rises higher in the sky with each passing day, terrain capable of preserving powder will become ever scanter. Looking ahead into the spring, the only way to score powder from future storms will be by beating the sun to the mountains. Or you could simply embrace the change of season and go for corn snow when temps warm up.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Cool and generally sunny conditions will persist today through much of the day Weds. with highs reaching the lower 40s in mountain communities. A stray snow shower in the afternoon can’t be ruled out later today.

Late in the day Weds. a cut-off low approaches the area from the NW that will deliver a refresh of a few inches to possibly a foot of new snow to the backcountry. Peak snowfall looks to come in on Weds. night lasting into the early morning hours of Thurs. Expect between 2-6″ of snow around the Tahoe Basin, with higher amounts above 7000′ and along the crest. Behind the system moist, unstable air will promote snow showers throughout the day on Thurs. and into Thurs. night with little to maybe a few extra inches accumulating in the backcountry.

Fri. yet another cut-off low approaches the area dropping down the Pacific coast from the N. Models continue to wobble on snow amounts and impacts for our region Fri. – Sat. PM as they struggle to get a handle on how the low will amble down the coast. Today’s runs show the low staying further offshore, keeping the heaviest precip. W. of the Sierra, most likely coming in on Fri. night in to Sat. AM. Tahoe will receive some flavor of snowfall during that time period, but the intensity is all dependent upon the track of the low pressure. A solid refresh in the mountains is probable, but whether that’s 4-6″ or 12″ above 7000′ is TBD. Stay tuned and optimistic…

Behind the early weekend system moist, unstable flow continues off the Pacific into Sun. keeping chances of afternoon showers in the forecast. Temps will moderate as well with highs reaching the mid 40s around the lake. Early next week a ridge of high pressure moves in clearing skies and warming temps a bit more.

The future holds ephemeral windows of great skiing. Get it while you can.