Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.0 deg.

< 1″ of slush accumulated

0530 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 25 deg.

New snow in Tamarack Peak backcountry: est. 6-8″

Backcountry Obs.

Yesterday’s mix of rain and snow at lake level never transitioned back entirely to snow. This morning a juicy, barely frozen slush coated everything. Driving up Mt. Rose Highway, accumulated snow began around 6800′ and increased with elevation. Heavily-rimed trees suggested a very moist storm overnight. Light snow fell through the morning until 0900.

The dense and heavily wind-drifted nature of the new snow made estimating the new snow amounts difficult: approx. 6-8″? I put in the new skin track through a fresh layer of thick Sierra cement, heavily wind affected into drifts and drummy pillows even in flat open areas. Moderate winds continued to blow from the WSW transporting fresh snow onto N and E aspects. Windward aspects and any snow surface exposed to the winds had a slight rime crust. Sheltered and treed areas were soft and creamy mashed potatoes. The snow did suggest a density change about 4″ from the surface as my skis punched through to the tops of my boots.

The skiing today wasn’t exceptional and the mountains felt precariously warm. Despite that, sheltered areas of fresh snow still offered soft, buttery turns that at speed, didn’t require too much effort. Gullies and boulders are fattening up and softening their lines making for super playful features on which to rip big arching turns. The more speed, the better today.

Hopefully the air mass will cool and dry out this evening to help lighten and dry the first few inches of fresh snow to keep cold softish conditions going.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Tonight skies will clear with temps cooling to well below freezing in the mountains and at lake level. Expect freezing fog in depressions and valleys too. Tomorrow temps will begin climbing to near and just above average (low-mid 40’s around the lake) with clear skies. The warmth looks to continue at least through the work week.

The next potential storm comes in Tues./Weds., bringing rain and snow. Models show snow levels high throughout the event between 7000′-8000′. Another cement event for the highest backcountry zones. Hopefully the system adds to the base and coverage in areas near and below 8000′. Temps during the day around 6000′ should get into the low 40’s with lows in the low to mid 30’s at night.

After the storm, transient high pressure will clear things out, but keep mild temps. around through the end of the work week. There are signals for a more active pattern starting back around next weekend, but it doesn’t look like any significant cold air will come in with it. Ensembles show a strong zonal jet stream developing with a conspicuous angle towards Hawaii. That usually signals a solid moisture plume, but warm air. Our area may be playing the rain/snow game for a bit.

For now, time to enjoy the soft, creamy turns of classic Sierra mashed potatoes.

0630 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 30.0 deg. No new precip.

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Snow started picking up around 0830 near lake level. Earlier this morning cloudy skies prevailed with just an occasional flurry. As snow began in earnest, the temp. inched up to and beyond the freezing mark around 0830. Rain will likely mix in from midday onward and hopefully turn back to snow some time tonight. The cold snow is gone at lake level.

But no one really skis in the backcountry at lake level. For zones above 7000’, this will be an all snow event with amounts between 1-2’, especially along the crest and west side of the lake. The snow will be classic Sierra cement, which may be a blessing in disguise. In addition to adding coverage and base to the mountains, the heavy snow may initiate another avalanche cycle that triggers zones that have not yet cycled through the persistent weak layers deep in the snowpack from December, and more recently in the layer from 1/2. The added weight could help flush out those instabilities with a big cycle. What follows is unknown, but it would be nice to put those lurking early season white monsters to bed.

Tomorrow will be a clearing day with cool, but not particularly cold temps.

A ridge of high pressure moves in early in the week bringing mild and dry weather to the area. A system still looks like it could brush by with high snow levels and light precipitation. around midweek, but in general, a January thaw looks all but certain for the next week following this storm.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 20.5 deg.

No new snow

0530 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry Obs.

The stellar powder from yesterday has changed and is no more. NW winds have groomed out the mountains, covering up yesterday’s ski tracks and most hints of the skin track. The snow is still plenty cold and soft and skiing great, albeit a little slower.

Wind is nature’s groomer, distributing the snow in the hollows and thinner areas which is exactly what has happened. The Tamarack snow pack now feels like midwinter, rounded out over features with very few sharks lurking about. Ascending through the trees, the snow remains soft and inviting. Midway up the mountain, NW winds and their effects were obvious. Wind pillows, sastrugi and icy scoured surfaces greeted me in ridgy areas lower down than I typically expect. This continued all they way to the summit.

SE aspects–and anything lee of the recent and on-going winds–are loading with wind drifted snow. Plenty of slabs felt upside down, hollow and drum-like. Considering the recent avalanche activity yesterday, I stayed away from any suspect zones. The most popular ski zones in the area are either scoured or cross loaded this morning. Powder days are so fleeting.

Despite the change in conditions, the descent still skied great with few tracks and rounded out features to hop around and through. Oh, the joy of sliding down snow never fades.

Weather/Forecast Thoughts:

Skies at dawn were mostly cloudy with mid-upper level clouds announcing the arrival of this weekend’s storm. The forecast for 1-2′ up high, mainly above 7000-7500′. The warmth of this storm will make any snow that falls great from a base building and water resource perspective. Most of what we’ve received to date has been very low in SWE (snow water equivalent), so this could help our abysmal Sierra snow pack and water supply. Down around lake level, I’d be happy to see a few inches of slush and fear this might end up being more of a rain and slush event.

Sunday appears to be near average with clearing conditions as the storm kicks out to the east.

The upcoming week will likely feature above average temps. with a break in the storms as a ridge of high pressure builds and settles in. There is a chance of some rain/snow around the middle of the week, but the system doesn’t look significant, nor are the models in agreement. Like most of the winter, models are currently mixed looking about a week out. The GFS leans more on the high pressure/ridging side which would bring warm and dry weather, while the Euro shows a more transient ridge with a strong Pacific jet approaching the California coast from the SW around 1/22. That signal doesn’t appear terribly cold, either…

Models have been so inconsistent this season, that I wouldn’t put too much stock in any given outcome. I would however, anticipate things trending on the warmer side more times than not.

All the more reason to get out and enjoy the cold snow, whatever form it takes, while you can!