Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Forecast and weather thoughts:

I’ve been out on the East Coast for the past week. It’s good to be back in Tahoe to get back into the 2024 winter weather narrative.

This afternoon winds have come up from the SW along with some streaks of high clouds approaching from the NW. Despite this, temps. around the lake have flirted with 50 from Carnelian down to SLT. This glimpse of spring will end abruptly tonight with the arrival of a weak storm system.

Winds and clouds will increase this evening and likely give way to some rain showers by daybreak, transitioning to snow around the lake tomorrow morning. Snow showers should prevail for most of tomorrow before tapering off tomorrow evening. With some luck, backcountry areas could see up to 6″ of new snow by Monday night. Sierra communities will be lucky to see more than an inch.

Cold air behind this system will make things feel again like winter with lows tomorrow night back into the teens and low 20’s with highs on Tues. in the upper 20’s and 30’s. Temps will moderate on Weds. under sunny skies before the next round of big snow approaches the area.

Both the GFS and Euro model are in agreement with a significant cycle of big snow targeting the Tahoe Sierra starting Thurs. and lasting potentially through the weekend. These storms will come in from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska, a classic scenario bringing cold, unstable air and plenty of moisture into the Sierra.

Winter looks far from over.

0400 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 29.1 deg. & 98% RH

8” new storm snow

0500 temp at 8400’ Incline Peak TH: 24 deg.

10-18″ observed new storm snow

Backcountry obs.:

Last night’s storm dropped a healthy refresh of a nearly a foot plus in the Incline Peak zone. At 5:00am moderate snow and SW winds continued to affect the area. Throughout the dawn hours winds eased and snowfall diminished just after dawn. Low, dense cloud cover has held on throughout the morning.

Apart from wind effect noted on open areas near former Incline Lake, little wind effect was noted from bottom to top of the peak. The summit had surprisingly few obvious wind slabs/pillows on lee aspects. Surface snow had some light texture at the summit, but still skied soft, smooth, and powdery.

Digging a few hasty pits revealed some moderate shears within the new snow. However, ski cuts above avalanche terrain and its subsequent skiing did not trigger any instabilities, sluffs included. The new snow appears right side up and increases in depth as you gain elevation on the peak.

Quality-wise, this storm dropped classicly dense Sierra powder. It’s not soppy cement, nor light and blower, but fluffy and forgiving hero pow. For best results and maximum enjoyment, apply speed to elongated turns on steep slopes and weeeee!

The skiing’s great this morning. Go get it.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

After a few days of warmth and calm, last night’s storm signaled the return to an active pattern in the Sierra. Over the next week, at least two more systems look likely to impact the area.

Today expect mostly cloudy skies with diminishing snow showers dropping negligible new snow. Highs around the lake will top out in the mid-upper 30’s while backcountry zones should remain near to well below freezing. Tonight skies begin to break and temps will respond by cooling well into the teens and 20’s.

Fri. through Sat. morning expect a break with sunshine returning and temps in upper 30’s to low 40’s both days. Snow on solar aspects and lower elevation zones should thicken and crust over with the warmth and subsequent freezing temps each night.

Sat. night through Sun. am another system comes into the Sierra from the W. arriving on a zonal (mild) track. Snow levels may be a bit higher than last night’s storm (6500-7000+’). Snowfall amounts also look slightly lower with 6-8″ possible above 8000′, maybe more for zones up along the crest. The track and warmth of this system will likely promote denser snow, especially along the Sierra crest.

Sun. night through Tues./Weds. another potentially more significant storm will impact the region. This storm is will have a strong subtropical moisture tap thanks to a robust Pacific jet extension over SoCal/Northern Baja. The jet will phase with a meandering low that posts up somewhere offshore between southern Oregon and NorCal. The result: a few days of consistent precip. for the Sierra, with the heaviest snowfall likely favoring the central and southern Sierra.

Snow levels are tough to pin down at this point as models don’t suggest a particularly cold or warm event. Expect snow levels to hover around lake level plus or minus a few hundred feet. Confidence in a solid snowfall (1-3 feet) is pretty good for the backcountry and zones above 7000′, but diminishes for lower areas. A subtropical moisture fetch and lack of any strong cold signal make a big dump of heavy snow for lower and mid elevations seem unlikely. Time will tell.

Looking beyond, the pattern continues to look unsettled with the potential for more snow into next weekend (Feb. 24 – 25). Keep it up, winter.

0430 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 31.7 deg. &62% RH

0515 temp. At 8650’ Tamarack TH: 24 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Strong SW winds, fog and light snow greeted the day in the Tamarack zone presaging the arrival of the next storm. As expected, the Rose zone is heavily tracked out, but what unconsolidated snow remains, is blowing about and buffing out the snow surface.

Cold stashes with fun, cold powder still abound in the trees and in protected NW-NE aspects. Near and above tree line and on solar and windward aspects, expect a range of frozen crusts, sastrugi, and wind board.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

What looked like a minor brush by system earlier in the week has evolved into a medium-sized sneaker system that might drop upwards of a foot of new snow this evening and early tomorrow morning in the backcountry. 4-8” totals around the Tahoe Basin aren’t out of the question, with higher amounts to the N and W, lower totals S and E.

Today will be cloudy and blustery with snow showers developing late this afternoon. High temps will top out in the upper 30s in mountain communities, while the mountains and backcountry will stay near to below freezing with increasing winds and flurries/light snow. More consistent and impactful snow will filter into the region late this afternoon with the heaviest amounts coming in after dark. A stretch of 1-2” per hour snowfall rates looks likely from late evening til after midnight.

Tomorrow will have a few snow showers diminishing throughout the day. Expect clouds and sun with highs again around 40 at the lake, low 30s in the mountains.

A brief break is in store for Fri. Before a weaker, quick system moves in Sat. with slightly higher snow levels than today’s system (6500-7000’). Expect a few inches of refresh in the higher zones. Little to nothing around the lake.

Another brief break early Sunday. Looks probable before a larger and more impactful storm may hit the area late Sunday.-Tues. Bringing consistent, potentially significant snowfall. models are still working out timing and track, but for now a decent storm looks likely. Once again, it appears that a wobbly cutoff low near the CA coast will interact with a strong Pacific jet extension near SoCal bringing in a good fetch of subtropical moisture, lifting it up and squeezing it out along the Sierra. Snow levels don’t look super low or super high, so this could bring wet snow to lake level and a dense dump to the backcountry. Time will tell.

For now, fingers crossed that tonight’s system refreshes things completely to kick off the next cycle.