Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.3 deg. & 93% RH

2″ new snow

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 8 deg.

2-4″ new snow

Backcountry obs.:

Cold, soft snow continues to be the rule in the backcountry. A few inches of cold, light refresh rounded out yesterday’s tracks. In wind exposed and southerly facing areas, the cold snow covered a thicker wind board that was still springy and penetrable, but firmer than the snow found on colder, more protected aspects.

The new snow showed no signs of wind effect. Calm winds and cold temps promoted surface hoar growth over night adding another zippy layer atop the soft pow.

Prime time continues.

Weather and forecast thoughts.:

Today’s cold start will give way to temps topping out in the low 30’s under initially partly cloudy skies that will fill in throughout the day. Another small system will drop in from the NW bringing chances for light snow showers and a reinforcing shot of cold air for tonight and tomorrow. Accumulations will be light: less than 2″. Lows tonight will be in the 20’s around the lake and teens in the mountains. Highs tomorrow will flirt with freezing in mountain communities and remain significantly colder in the backcountry.

A ridge of high pressure finally makes moves on the area starting Saturday. This will bring bluebird conditions to the area with seasonably warm high temps (20’s and 30s for the backcountry, 30’s to 40 around the lake) under sunny skies. Nightly inversions look likely during this pattern, which could promote surface hoar growth on the snowpack in low lying areas: “recycled pow” for some, a future weak layer for others.

The ridge holds on into the next work week, but shows signs of flattening and weakening towards next weekend. This could bring some clouds and brush by moisture as storms begin affecting the PacNW. Further out, longer range models are hinting at a reopening of the storm door going into the President’s Day holiday week. It’s a ways out, but a prolonged, multi-week dry stretch seems unlikely.

0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.1 deg.

Trace new snowfall

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 17 deg.

Backcountry obs.

Skiing in the Rose backcountry continues to improve and stabilize as of this morning. Stability improvements may be short-lived as wind slabs grow due to an incoming disturbance bringing modest snowfall and moderate/high winds. Snow totals for the next 24 hours could reach 6″ along the crest and west of the lake, while eastern zones will likely see a few inches.

Moderate to strong winds out of the WNW and cold temps welcomed the day in the predawn hours at the Tamarack TH. No appreciable new snow fell in the past 24 hours, but surfaces on all aspects remain soft and have further consolidated from the upside-down snow left in the wake of the weekend storm. Wind effect on surface snow was notable with modest soft texture in treed and protected zones, to soft, easily turnable buff on direct windward aspects. Ridges are becoming sculpted and firm, but cold temps and new snow are redistributing the fluff rather than allowing winds to deeply scour surfaces.

Thus far this season, this is the week to be in the backcountry. Protected steeps and bowls have cold, fast fluff atop a springy, dense base making for soft, floaty turns. Surface conditions are largely consistent, so opening it up with confidence is easy. Midwinter snow depth also means that the early season sharks have migrated down below 7000′.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Today a weak system will bring moderate winds and generally light snowfall to the region. A reinforcing shot of cold air will accompany the storm, keeping temps. in the low 30’s around the lake, low 20’s in the mountains. Expect generally gray and overcast conditions, but a few peeks of sunshine aren’t out of the question. Snowfall totals through tomorrow morning will range from 1-3″ around the lake to up to 6″ up along the crest. The backcountry should receive a modest surface refresh.

The remainder of the work week still looks to feature periods of light snowfall and cold temps as a couple weak impulses drop into the trough of low pressure that currently sits over the region. As the trough lazily moves eastward, each successive impulse will take a more eastward track becoming progressively drier. The result: a few light snow showers, shots of colder air and breezy conditions eventually giving way to sunshine by Saturday.

The weekend will initiate a calm period of clearer skies and modestly warmer daytime temps in the upper 30’s around the lake, 20’s in the mountains. Drier air will likely still preserve sheltered snow hopefully keeping the backcountry powdery through the weekend on NW-E aspects.

The Sierra looks to remain under the influence of high pressure for the coming week which will translate to fair skies, seasonal temps, and little to no chance of new snow.

Looking way out into the Pacific next week, models show the jet stream remaining strong in the central Pacific and beginning to extend towards the the west coast at the end of the week. What that means is anyone’s guess at this point: too far out.

For now, the gettin’s good. Best to treat this week as the best it could get all season.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.8 deg. & 98% RH

1-2″ new snow

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 18 deg.

2-3″ new snow

Backcountry obs.:

Skiing has vastly improved in the past 24 hours. Cold temps, cloudy skies, and few inches of new snow have primed the backcountry for brilliant mid winter pow skiing. Fast, light surface snow, combined with a dense, springy base underneath made high speed, elongated pow turns and playful pops over pillows and features feel effortless.

Cloud cover and cold temps. expected today should preserve conditions and maintain the trend towards improving post-storm stability.

Overcast skies, cold temps, and very light winds graced the backcountry this morning. A dusting of 2-3″ of new, cold snow filled yesterday’s tracks. Areas of patchy fog and low clouds drifted gently through the forests and along the ridge tops all morning.

The recent storm snow has begun to settle and consolidate. Vigorous pole plunges still easily reach 1-2′ deep. A few density changes are noted when probing, but they are more subtle than yesterday. Outside the skin track, skis drop in about 3-6″ into the snow when breaking trail without a collapsing trap door feel. Surface snow is cold and light with supportable, dense storm snow beneath.

Winds were very light this morning from the TH to the summit. Soft surfaces without wind texture extended all the way to above treeline terrain.

No obvious signs of instability were noted today. It feels like the snowpack is settling down.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today cold temps and cloudy skies will prevail across the region with a few snow showers developing from late morning through the afternoon. New snowfall amounts should be less than an inch in mountain communities up to a couple inches in the backcountry. Tonight will be cold and cloudy with stray showers passing through. Little accumulation can be expected tonight. Temps today will range from the low to mid 30’s around lake level to low to mid 20’s in the mountains above 8000′.

Weather the rest of the week will be similar to today with chances of snow showers each day and seasonably cold temps in the 20s and 30s. Temps. cool off a degree or two Weds. – Fri with another impulse of energy passing through late in the work week with the potential to drop a few more inches of cold snow on the mountains. Winds look to remain light.

A large scale trough of low pressure in the wake of the weekend storm is slowly moving W to E across our region. The trough allows small surface low pressure systems to drop in from the N and W generating instability and a few snow showers as they pass. Additionally, each wave will bring a modest reinforcement of cold air. Expect this pattern to keep backcountry snow conditions in excellent shape through the work week.

As the trough progresses east at the end of the week, a final shot of light snow and cold air will drop in late Thurs./Fri. before a ridge of high pressure begins building for the weekend and next week. The ridge will deflect Pacific storms to the N and S of the Sierra and modestly warm temps. This weekend could be sunny and bluebird.

Models indicate the ridge of high pressure holding on for next week keeping our weather fairly quiet.

Get it while you can.