Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 18.9 deg. & 75% RH

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

No backcountry obs. this morning as a look at remote sensors shows blistering E winds raking the Sierra crest, especially points S. This morning Kirkwood recorded a 181 mph gust along the ridge at 9100′. As of this writing, winds are still sustained over 100mph and gusting in the 120-130mph range. Impressive. Around N. Lake Tahoe, winds are still very strong out of the E, with gusts along the crest well over 100mph. The one exception appears to be Slide Mtn where winds are sustained in the 30mph zone with gusts up to 50-60mph.

The wind event should continue through today and tonight before finally subsiding Fri. All along the Tahoe Sierra, expect most cold snow in N-E aspects to be pounded and sculpted into unbreakable board and sastrugi. I don’t anticipate treed zones to make it out unscathed, but it’ll be worth a look tomorrow morning.

Once the winds diminish tomorrow, expect high pressure to take over this weekend lasting into the middle of next week with clear skies, light winds, and warm temps. Highs will be in the low 50s at lake level this weekend, reaching the middle 50s by Mon.-Weds. Temps. in the mountains won’t be much cooler: good bye powder. Lows do look to approach freezing each night in the backcountry under a dry airmass. The combo of cool temps with radiational and evaporative cooling should allowing for modest surface refreezes each night. Translation: a decent to good corn cycle appears likely.

By the middle of next week, models continue hinting at a return to unsettled weather and the potential for storms in the final weeks of March. There’s no solid indication on how cold or strong these will be, but a prolonged warm and dry stretch lasting indefinitely looks unlikely.

And that’s good. The snowpack is in decent shape in the Tahoe Sierra and a bit below average on the Eastside. As things stand now, barring a sudden and prolonged warm up, there’s probably enough snow to ski through the middle – end of April in the backcountry. However, a few more dumps would be most welcome to top things off for an extended Sierra corn season to run well into May.

0430 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 25.5 deg. & 89% RH

0515 temp. at 7150’ Grouse Rock/Upper Ward TH: 20 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

As expected, systems over the past few days have dropped considerably more snow along the crest than points east. This morning, up to about 6″ of cold soft, wind groomed snow rested atop the snowpack. Tracks from previous days had been completely erased by recent winds. N. facing trees and sheltered zones hosted soft, moderately dense powder while exposed zones below treeline and along ridges in near treeline terrain had soft wind buff, board, and breakable crust.

Despite the wind and lackluster storms, the snow is still skiing great on N aspects. Soft, bouncy turns made up the majority of the descent, while a few scratchy crust turns added spice to the skiing in open areas within the last couple hundred vertical feet of the run.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.9 deg. & 81% RH

0515 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 27 deg.

1-3″ new windblown snow

Backcountry obs.:

This morning the last system in the recent series of weak disturbances impacted Tahoe with little more than a few flurries and gusty winds. A smidgeon of new snow coated the ground this morning in Carnelian Bay, while above 8000′ in the Rose backcountry, 1-3″ of new natural snow had fallen in the past day.

Consistent SW winds had filled in many of the previous skier tracks from the weekend with only a few crusty edges peering out from the newly buffed out surface. As expected, open areas present a mix of refrozen crusts and buffed out crusty tracks as what little snow that’s been falling, fills in. Sheltered areas in the trees are harvesting the new snow better as a more consistent, 1-3″ of soft buff covers the preexisting old, cold, pre-storm powder.

The skiing is still fun: mainly soft, buffed out powder in the trees and scratchy dust on crust in exposed and steeper terrain. Understanding how to sniff out any small wind deposits is key to maximizing soft turns. It’s a good day for some all-mountain, variable snow training.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Today’s unsettled conditions bringing mostly cloudy skies, occasional snow showers, and gusty winds will continue through the afternoon. Showers may become a bit more convective with afternoon heating late in the day, producing bursts of snow and/or pellet showers. Highs will reach the upper 30s in mountain communities with 20s and 30s in the backcountry. Little, if any, new snow accumulation is expected.

Behind today’s system skies begin clearing and temps drop this evening well into the teens and 20s. Tomorrow expect another cool, breezy day in the upper 30s/low 40s with clouds and sun and winds out of the N.

Weds. night through Fri. AM, winds will shift around to the N and E in response to a building ridge of high pressure off the coast interacting with a trough of low pressure to our E. The gradient will produce strong E winds that will likely strip most cold, unconsolidated snow from NE facing aspects. Goodbye powder.

Fri. through the weekend, sunny skies are still no tap with temps. warming each day. By early next week, highs should reach the low to mid 50s around the lake, with cold nights allowing for snow surface refreezes. Corn snow, here we come.

Beyond the middle of next week, some models begin diverging in their solutions for the middle to end of March. Looking at the upper level flow models in the Pacific, there’s quite a bit of flux. Some runs suggest the strong ridge of high pressure arriving this weekend to lift N and E, with the subtropical branch of the jet reinvigorating near SoCal. This would allow storms to sneak in from the S. While other models suggest another blocking ridge redeveloping near the west coast, keeping us warm and dry.

Spring is nigh; expect change.