Tahoe Backcountry Snow

  • Winter 25-26 Forecasting JournalSeasonal forecasting narrative and journal.
  • Current Wx. at 6350′Current weather station info at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay.
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  • Quantity over quality

    March 6th, 2024

    0415 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 26.9 deg. & 94% RH

    0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 21 deg.

    Backcountry obs.:

    Mt. Rose Highway reopened yesterday afternoon (3/5), so I opted to head out to the Tamarack zone to check on the new snow from the big storm. Light winds and cloudy skies greeted the morning, along with snow banks now double their pre-storm height.

    Skinning out to Galena Peaks, few tracks were evident on the snow surface and those that had been laid had filled in with wind drifted snow overnight. All snow surfaces on all aspects, elevations, and even in the most sheltered treed zones, have some form of wind effect. In the most sheltered N facing areas, a rippled texture accents the soft snow surface. In any exposed terrain, wind board of all varieties abounds. The most solar and windward aspects are non breakable, while lee and colder N aspects are have a dense, yet penetrable surface. Solar crusts are minimal in this area and were noted in a few limited areas with true S aspects. Abundant cloud cover since the storm has likely contributed to the lack of sun crust.

    The skiing? Variable and sporty. Because even the soft snow grains have been ground down in the wind into fragments, the snow is skiing slow and fairly grabby. Each turn provides the excitement of providing a soft, buttery experience, a firm unbreakable wind crust, or breakable board requiring considerable effort. These aren’t conditions worth traveling for, but are great backcountry training.

    On the plus side, no signs of instability were noted. It could be a good time for a multi-day deep into the backcountry in search of soft snow, or maybe a hut trip? Stability and coverage are good, so why not head out for some exploration?

    While the storm did set the area up for at least another month of great coverage, vastly improving a bleak season up to last week, another shot of cold, light snow would be most welcome to bring back the joys of effortless pow skiing.

    Forecast and weather thoughts:

    The weather over the next few days will be rather lackluster and will do little to improve surface conditions.

    Expect highs Weds.-Sat. in the upper 30s to low 40s in Tahoe communities with generally mostly cloudy skies lasting through Fri. Backcountry highs each afternoon will likely hit the mid 30s. Expect the snow to thicken and continue crusting each day. A few snow showers could grace the area Weds. and Thurs. dropping a dusting at best along the crest and points N of Tahoe. Lows each night will drop below freezing into the 20s with high humidities each night.

    Fri. a narrow ridge passes over the region that will usher in sunny skies and temps into the low 40s.

    The weekend continues the ho-hum rhythm: cool and mostly cloudy days with highs into the low 40s at the lake, mid 30s in the backcountry with modest chances for decorative, yet non-consequential snow showers. Lows will cool efficiently into the 20s each night.

    The next potential storm signal comes Sun. – Weds. with two rounds of precip. approaching the area from the Pacific. These look rather modest, but could bring a needed refresh to zones above 7000′. Snow levels don’t appear particularly low with either storm. While unimpressive, any new snow would be a welcome refresh to cover up the wind battered surface left by the excesses of the Great Blizzard of 2024.

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  • Buttery pow

    March 5th, 2024

    0415 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 26.8 deg. & 98% RH

    Trace new snow

    0515 temp. at 7450′ Rose Knob TH: 27 deg.

    Backcountry obs.:

    Snow has consolidated considerably in the lower portions of the Tahoe backcountry over the past 48 hours making travel easier and turns buttery soft.

    Little to no new snow had accumulated overnight on Rose Knob and low clouds and fog hung over the peaks along the NE corner of the lake. Winds were generally light. The snow surface on NE-S aspects between 7400′ and 8900′ was soft and cold across all aspects, but had wind effect in open areas and on SE – S aspects. The raging winds of last weekend’s storm scoured most SW aspects down to bare ground in some areas and left ridge tops icy and textured with large cornices hanging to the lee. Just beneath ridgelines, soft wind pillows, drifts, and waves exist, adding some spice and features to the first few turns of descents. Open areas have some light wind texture atop soft snow.

    Despite cold temps. and cloudy skies since the end of the storm, the snow has thickened and lost its light, blower consistency in favor of a thicker, buttery – but still super fun – powder. Speed and wide turns suggested. My guess is that the combination of March solar energy and high winds slightly heated and ground down snow grains into a more compact surface.

    If your goal is anything with a S. facing or solar aspect, today might be the last opportunity for soft snow before suncrusts take over. The feet of snow left in the wake of the weekend storm have improved coverage dramatically from summit to lake shore bringing mid winter coverage to all backcountry zones in the Basin. It took forever, but was worth the wait.

    Weather and forecast thoughts:

    Today will bring a mix of clouds and sun with slightly warmer temps bringing highs into the mid 30’s around the lake and upper 20’s to low 30’s in the backcountry. High RH values will continue to promote thicker powder, even in colder areas. A few light snow showers may develop during the afternoon and early evening hours, but little to no accumulation is expected. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail tonight with lows again dropping into the 20’s.

    Tomorrow and Thurs. expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s around the lake. Snow showers are possible both days with areas along the crest receiving the best chances for a dusting or light surface refresh. Lows will efficiently cool each night into the teens – 20’s for the backcountry, likely preserving the fresh snow on sheltered and N facing areas.

    Skies clear out Fri. and Sat. with slightly warmer temps and drier air: low 40’s at lake level/30’s in the backcountry. Lows will cool well into the teens and 20’s.

    The end of the weekend and early next week bring back chances for snow showers with decently cold temps on Mon., but nothing that looks that impressive. Peeking out into the Pacific beyond the weekend, no big storms appear on the horizon. Some models hint at a stretch of high pressure building in starting around the middle of next week.

    For now, it’s open season in the backcountry.

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  • Great 2024 Blizzard recap

    March 3rd, 2024

    0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 19.9 deg.

    24 hr. new snow as of 0800: 24″

    Total storm total since Thurs., 2/29 at 0800: 62″

    Backcountry obs.:

    Backcountry obs have been limited throughout the storm due to lack of power and being snowed in. However, I did head out again to the 7000′ high point between Tahoe Vista and Agate Bay this morning. It’s deep. Very deep. Breaking trail, I sank down to knee/thigh depth with each step. Snow is right side up, but the upper 2-3′ of the new snowpack is not consolidated and comprised of cold, fluffy powder.

    Strong SW winds continue to rake the area. Some wind effect and pillows cover windward SW aspects, but the snow surface in these areas is still soft. Unstable wind slabs are surely large and easy to trigger in steeper avalanche terrain.

    The incredibly deep powder made turning unnecessary on the descent–gentle steering would be more accurate. The snow could use a day of two to consolidate to improve skiing in the backcountry.

    Forecast and weather thoughts:

    This has been quite the storm. All the anticipation and excitement was largely warranted as forecast snow totals have verified. Personally, I made a forecast for snow total amounts at my house with a friend for 56″ from Thurs. at 0800 through Sun. at 0800 and landed at 62″, and the snow continues falling. Here’s a breakdown:

    2/29: 0800-2000: 2.5″

    2/29-3/1: 2000-0800: 7.5″

    3/1: 0800-2000: 9″

    3/1-3/2: 2000-0800: 19″

    3/2: 0800-2000: 14″

    3/2-3/3: 2000-0800: 10″

    Beyond snow totals, the hype surrounding wind speeds and blizzard conditions was justified as well. Widespread power outrages affected the Tahoe Basin on Fri. night as wind gusts whipped snow laden trees and branches onto power lines and utility infrastructure. Roads over the major passes in the area closed as well. There is still no projected opening time for I-80 & NV 431 in N. Lake and CA 88 in S. Lake as of this writing. Impressively, the summit of Alpine Meadows recorded a 184 mph wind gust around 9:15pm on the evening of 3/1. It was around this time that many in N. Lake lost power.

    Things are winding down this afternoon, with intense bands of snow showers intermixed with brief peaks of sunshine. Gusty winds are still creating occasional whiteouts as they send tree laden snow airborne. Expect highs today to reach the mid to upper 20’s around the lake and teens in the backcountry.

    Tonight snow showers will continue with modest accumulations of anywhere from 3-12″ depending on elevation and proximity to the crest. Winds will still gust from time to time, but should begin trending downward.

    Tomorrow brings partly sunny skies and break with a few scattered snow showers firing up, especially in the afternoon hours bringing light accumulations. Temps will modify a bit to reach freezing in Sierra communities, while the backcountry will remain cold. Tomorrow could be an incredible day…

    More on the forecast tomorrow. Time to start digging out.

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