Tahoe Backcountry Snow

  • Winter 25-26 Forecasting JournalSeasonal forecasting narrative and journal.
  • Current Wx. at 6350′Current weather station info at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay.
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  • Corn season ho!

    March 15th, 2024

    0430 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 30.7 deg. & 75% RH

    0515 temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 17 deg.

    Backcountry obs.:

    This morning I expected to find blasted wind board all over the backcountry, but was pleasantly surprised to find soft, wind-buffed snow in shady, sheltered areas and stiff pillows, wind board, and sun crusts elsewhere. Sastrugi near and above treeline was present, yet manageable. Popular N and E facing bowls are mostly scoured down to bed surfaces and heavily textured by the wind. However, it still is possible to sniff out areas of soft, wind deposited snow on the lee side of ridgelines and features in open bowls.

    Considering the expectations for combat skiing, conditions aren’t that bad and actually still pretty fun.

    Weather and forecast thoughts:

    Cold, windy weather will begin to wane today as winds slacken and temps start their climb. Today will be partly cloudy with highs getting into the low 40s around the lake and 30s in the mountains.

    This weekend and into early next week, spring arrives in earnest with warm temps, sunny skies, and light winds. Expect highs in the 40s and 50s for both Sat. and Sun with lows below freezing in a dry air mass. The trend continues into Mon.-Weds. Cool nights with low dewpoints should aid in refreezing snow surfaces overnight, promoting more widespread corn snow across the backcountry.

    South faces have already received plenty of sun and warmth over the past week, so corn should already be present, especially at lower elevations. The weekend warm up and sunny skies will begin “corning” up the snow at higher elevations on E-S-W aspects. Timing is key with corn, so if you head out, be sure to get an early start to ensure a firm, frozen climb and smooth, buttery descent.

    Models continue to show storminess returning to the area toward the end of next week, through the end of the month. Details are scant, but it could be something to look forward to. For now, there’s plenty of corn and sunshine to harvest in the coming days. Get it!

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  • Wicked east wind, then spring

    March 14th, 2024

    0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 18.9 deg. & 75% RH

    No backcountry obs. today

    Weather and forecast thoughts:

    No backcountry obs. this morning as a look at remote sensors shows blistering E winds raking the Sierra crest, especially points S. This morning Kirkwood recorded a 181 mph gust along the ridge at 9100′. As of this writing, winds are still sustained over 100mph and gusting in the 120-130mph range. Impressive. Around N. Lake Tahoe, winds are still very strong out of the E, with gusts along the crest well over 100mph. The one exception appears to be Slide Mtn where winds are sustained in the 30mph zone with gusts up to 50-60mph.

    The wind event should continue through today and tonight before finally subsiding Fri. All along the Tahoe Sierra, expect most cold snow in N-E aspects to be pounded and sculpted into unbreakable board and sastrugi. I don’t anticipate treed zones to make it out unscathed, but it’ll be worth a look tomorrow morning.

    Once the winds diminish tomorrow, expect high pressure to take over this weekend lasting into the middle of next week with clear skies, light winds, and warm temps. Highs will be in the low 50s at lake level this weekend, reaching the middle 50s by Mon.-Weds. Temps. in the mountains won’t be much cooler: good bye powder. Lows do look to approach freezing each night in the backcountry under a dry airmass. The combo of cool temps with radiational and evaporative cooling should allowing for modest surface refreezes each night. Translation: a decent to good corn cycle appears likely.

    By the middle of next week, models continue hinting at a return to unsettled weather and the potential for storms in the final weeks of March. There’s no solid indication on how cold or strong these will be, but a prolonged warm and dry stretch lasting indefinitely looks unlikely.

    And that’s good. The snowpack is in decent shape in the Tahoe Sierra and a bit below average on the Eastside. As things stand now, barring a sudden and prolonged warm up, there’s probably enough snow to ski through the middle – end of April in the backcountry. However, a few more dumps would be most welcome to top things off for an extended Sierra corn season to run well into May.

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  • Fluffy turns hold on

    March 13th, 2024

    0430 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 25.5 deg. & 89% RH

    0515 temp. at 7150’ Grouse Rock/Upper Ward TH: 20 deg.

    Backcountry obs.:

    As expected, systems over the past few days have dropped considerably more snow along the crest than points east. This morning, up to about 6″ of cold soft, wind groomed snow rested atop the snowpack. Tracks from previous days had been completely erased by recent winds. N. facing trees and sheltered zones hosted soft, moderately dense powder while exposed zones below treeline and along ridges in near treeline terrain had soft wind buff, board, and breakable crust.

    Despite the wind and lackluster storms, the snow is still skiing great on N aspects. Soft, bouncy turns made up the majority of the descent, while a few scratchy crust turns added spice to the skiing in open areas within the last couple hundred vertical feet of the run.

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