Tahoe Backcountry Snow

  • Winter 25-26 Forecasting JournalSeasonal forecasting narrative and journal.
  • Current Wx. at 6350′Current weather station info at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay.
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  • Eastside obs. April 13 -14: McGee Creek & Pine Creek

    April 15th, 2024

    0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 29.8 deg. & 93% RH

    Trace new snow

    Backcountry obs.:

    I headed out to the Eastside on Sat. and Sun., April 13-14 and skied in the McGee Creek and Pine Creek drainages. Snow is transitioning to a spring-like corn snow in the mid to upper elevations, but as of this weekend, it had not fully formed and is still in a transitional state from 8000′-10000′. Above 10,000′, snow is still cold and wintry on N-NE aspects, especially in steep and protected bowls and couloirs.

    The week of April 8-12 brought high temps in the 50s and 60s and mostly clear skies to much of the eastern Sierra, quickly warming the cold snowpack. Initially cold nights with solid refreezes followed the warm days, but towards the end of the week, temps peaked and poor refreezes due to nightly temperature inversions kept the snowpack warm and wet. As a result, widespread wet slide activity can be seen throughout the range on all aspects in terrain steeper than 35 deg. Many popular couloirs slid late last week and are choked with avy debris.

    In the McGee Creek drainage, the summer trail is clear from the TH up canyon nearly 2 miles. Descents on the N facing slopes of McGee Creek Peak are well filled in with coverage running down to the creek. The snow surface is transitioning to spring snow from 8000′-10,000′, but not quite there. A few more days of melt and solid refreeze will bring the snow into corn territory from its current state. Above 10,000′, sun crust and powdery wind deposits are still holding on in sheltered, steep N facing nooks.

    Similar conditions existed in the Pine Creek drainage further south near Bishop on Sun., 4/14. A cold storm had given the snow a good refreeze and between 1-5″ of new snow on Sat. PM and Sun., 4/13-14, making for great travel and ski conditions. Snow is above the TH and requires a mile or so of walking along the summer trail/old mining road up into the Pine Creek drainage before reaching snow.

    Much like McGee Creek, the signs of a rapidly-cooked transitioning snowpack are everywhere as massive wet slides have cleared out most gullies and couloirs. Underneath the light amounts of new snow, the base surface from 8000′-11,000′ was firm and sun affected, yet pleasantly edgeable and fast. Above 10,000′ enough new snow had fallen on Sun. to provide great dust on crust/powder conditions. This new snow will need a few extra days to transition into melt/freeze conditions. Above 11,000′, N facing terrain, couloirs and bowls still host cold, winter snow that will likely prevail for the next week.

    In summary, coverage on the Eastside is generally average to just below and snow is well on its way to becoming corny, dreamy goodness. Another week of sunny skies, warm days and cold nights should do the trick.

    Weather/forecast thoughts:

    No storms are on the horizon for the next week or so as a beautiful spring pattern takes hold over the Sierra. Sunshine and highs approaching 60 each day this week look likely through the weekend. Lows will cool off into the 30s with lower temps in the mountains promoting at least modest surface refreezes. As long as temps cool off sufficiently each night, this could be the week for great corn snow up and down the Sierra.

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  • Spring conditions now; another cold, erratic system for the weekend

    April 11th, 2024

    0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.1 deg. & 86% RH

    Backcountry obs.:

    Yesterday morning I toured in the Tamarack backcountry and found widespread supportable spring snow that had received a solid refreeze overnight Tues. – Weds. Temps at the 8650′ TH registered 31 at the car.

    Travel was quick and efficient on the firm surface. The surface had been textured by daily melt/freeze cycles making skins grip easily, even on fairly steep uphill runs. Supportable melt/freeze surfaces existed on nearly all aspects from 8650′ to 9200′ atop Galena Peak on all aspects except sheltered or steep N. slopes and gullies.

    In those few exceptional areas, breakable transitional crust was abundant in N. facing trees, while soft, moderately dense, old powder existed in a sheltered, 45 deg. N facing chute.

    Due to the early hour, the skiing was firm and fast, but likely warmed to buttery corn by 8-10am. If headed into terrain with any consequence, carry a whippet, especially in the morning.

    Weather and forecast thoughts:

    What looked like a calm, warm, spring pattern late last week is now, yet again getting interrupted by a cold, cut off low this weekend. This skier’s dreams of long, corn descents in a Hawaiian shirt have been shelved for the time being as showers and accumulating snows look likely in the mountains for the weekend.

    Today is the last solid, warm spring day in the Sierra until early next week. Highs will get into the upper 50s to maybe 60 around the lake. Expect temps to be a few degrees cooler in the mountains, but on the snow it’ll feel plenty hot.

    Tomorrow will be warm, but as the cutoff low from the N approaches, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will likely fire up with initially high snow levels, dropping through tomorrow evening and setting up camp some where in the 6000′ – 7000′ range. S and SW winds will pick up as the low approaches too.

    Sat. looks to be the day with the greatest chance for meaningful precip as the low progresses down the CA coast and syncs with daytime warming instability. Areas west of the crest will receive the most snow – maybe up to 6″ or locally more – while Tahoe communities pick up a dusting to an inch or two Sat. pm into the overnight. Scattered showers and cool conditions will prevail into Sun. before tapering off Sun. night into Mon.

    As is common in the Sierra in spring, showers and cloud cover will likely increase throughout the day both Sat. and Sun. as convective heating further destabilizes the atmosphere, enhancing showers. Rumbles of thunder and graupel/pellet showers are very possible too. Where the more intense showers set up, especially high in the backcountry, respectable amounts of snow could fall bringing totals up. This is a scenario where cold temps will solidify the corn surface in the backcountry and new snowfall could create a dust on crust, or with some luck, even a sneaky spring powder refresh for the highest elevations and N. facing aspects.

    Winds will pick up with this system, making for less than pleasant spring travel through the backcountry. If enough snow falls, wind slabs on lee aspects will be suspect and merit caution.

    By Mon., a few lingering showers could fire on the crest, but most areas will see a return to sunny skies and milder temps in the 40s and 50s. Looking into next week, no storms appear in the models just yet, but cooler temps and generally clear skies seem probable as a dominant trough of low pressure settles into the western third of the continent.

    It’s not the weekend for Hawaiian shirts, but with some luck, another spring powder session could be in the cards.

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  • Last call for pow?

    April 5th, 2024

    0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 15.2 deg. & 94% RH

    ~ 2″ new snow

    0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 4 deg.

    6-8″ new 48 hr. snow

    Backcountry obs.:

    Despite last week’s warmup even at the highest elevations, the recent trough of low pressure and successive waves have left the Tamarack backcountry covered in 6-8″ of cold, blower powder resting atop a firm suncrust. The past two days have been cold and unsettled with heavy convective showers popping up each afternoon, adding fresh snow to the mountains. Yesterday afternoon a few cells dropped 1-2″ of cold snow in 15 minutes around North Lake Tahoe.

    The result this morning was brilliant, cold pow under mainly clear skies and light winds that skied beautifully. Some wind effect and settling had thickened the new snow such that turning into the crusty bed layer beneath was a nearly nonexistent concern on the highest reaches of above treeline bowls and chutes. Only at the bottom of each run was the crust from last week’s warmth evident. What a way to bid farewell to the many excellent powder filled dawn patrols of 2024!

    Expect crusts to begin forming today as the new snow warms, especially on solar aspects, and begins transitioning to spring snow by the middle of the week. Corn takes time, so it may be until the middle to end of the week before many areas host a plentiful corn bounty if conditions (warm sunny days, refreezing, clear nights) align and hold.

    Weather and forecast thoughts:

    Last night was likely the coldest night of the spring and possibly the last very cold night of the season. Starting today, temps. begin moderating under sunny skies with highs reaching the upper 30s around the lake, 20s in the backcountry. Tonight will once again be cold – but not as bone chilling as last night – leading into a few more degrees of warming and sunshine for tomorrow. A weak disturbance wanders into the northern Sierra tomorrow afternoon, which could kick off a stray snow shower or two along the Crest, but mainly north of Tahoe.

    Spring returns on Mon. as sunny skies and warmer temps take hold. Highs by the middle of the week will reach well into the 50s, even flirting with 60 by the end of the week, under mainly clear skies. Nights will cool off, but towards the end of the week don’t appear to offer solid refreezes – maybe just modest surface refreezes in open areas. If things don’t get too warm, this could be a prime spring skiing window, especially around the middle to end of the week as recent snows need time to melt and freeze to form corn.

    Models for next weekend are mixed with quite a few showing a trough of low pressure coming into the PacNW, and possibly dropping a weak cold front into the Sierra. This may cool off high temps 5-10 degrees, increase SW winds, and maybe bring in a few more clouds.

    Spring looks to continue further out with no major storms or significant cool downs on the horizon. The focus now shifts to monitoring the daily melt/freeze conditions to see if Tahoe gets a good corn season.

    The tide has turned and the snowpack will quickly begin dwindling at middle elevations and even higher as the days warm and lengthen. Spring can bring late season storms in April and May, but with the accelerating melt ahead, this morning was likely last call for Tahoe backcountry powder in 2024.

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