Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0400 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.0 deg. W/ 78% RH

0515 temp. at 8650’ TH in Mt. Rose backcountry: 21 deg.

0645 temp. at 9000′: 24.9 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

A strong NE wind event over the past few days has created variable wind affected surfaces throughout the Tahoe backcountry: wind-scoured, firm surfaces exist above treeline, crispy refrozen suncrust on solar aspects, and cold, soft, wind-textured snow in sheltered, shady trees and lee aspects. It’s worth getting out and sniffing around.

Mon. morning (1/6), tracks and deep ruts left by the holiday stampede covered the backcountry across Tahoe. However, the inside slider that pushed into the area late Monday (1/6) dropped a skiff of snow, increased NE winds, and cooled temps. Most prime, NE facing areas above treeline had their snow stripped and tossed miles to the SW by the ripping NE winds. What snow didn’t get flung into the Central Valley has been smashed and sculpted into firm windboard and sastrugi along ridgetops and above treeline on N-NE-E aspects.

But fear not! Areas below treeline, even in shaded NW-NE facing areas host cold, oldish snow that remains soft, and in many cases, has filled in the tracks and covered the sins left by the holiday masses.

This morning, cold temps, light winds, and fast, dried-out powder on a spingy base made for gleeful skiing in the Mt. Rose area above 8500′. Many giggles were had.

The dreaded NE winds have been merciful.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Cold and dry conditions persist for the foreseeable future with no storms yet on the horizon.

Today will be another cool and clear day in the backcountry with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s with light to moderate NE winds.

Tomorrow (1/10) will be the warmest day of the next week with highs reaching well into the 30s to possibly 40 around 8000′ under clear, sunny skies. Should lower humidities hold in shady, sheltered areas, soft snow may persist.

Another inside slider bringing a renewed shot of NE winds and colder temps–but no new snow–returns late Fri. SW winds pick up ahead of the system Fri night, but will turn to N late ushering in a colder, continental flow. Highs in the backcountry on Sat will be brisk, only reaching the mid 20s under sunny skies.

Rinse and repeat for Sun and early next week as another dry, cold, slider brings a reinforcing shot of cold air back to the area with no precip.

Forecast models are pretty consistent showing a cold, dry pattern locked in through at least mid month. The culprit? A large, reinforcing omega block in the jet stream has taken up residence in the eastern Pacific. Tahoe sits on the far eastern edge of this feature, where the jet stream is angled at the Sierra from the N bringing cold air in on weak, moisture-starved systems.

Beyond next week, the trend in models shows this pattern largely hanging on. However, there are a few that introduce the possibility of some moisture working in.

Nothing lasts forever.

0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 20.2 deg w/ 94% RH

10″ new 24 hr. snowfall (1/3 storm)

0530 temp. at 6800′ W. Shore TH: 19 deg.

0700 temp. at 8800′: 17.2 deg.

6-12″ new 24 hr. snowfall (1/3 storm)

Backcountry obs.:

Friday’s (1/3) quick hitting storm that looked to bring negligible amounts of snow to the region, over-performed yet again! Even at lake level, precip. started as snow in earnest around noon and continued until nightfall. Temps fell quickly during the storm with the majority of snow falling under a below freezing airmass. To top it all off, another round of cold, light snow fell during the late evening hours, adding another couple inches to afternoon accumulations. By daybreak Sat. (1/4), the storm had left 10″ on North Lake. So much for “inconsequential snow at lake level.”

Sat. I headed out to the West Shore to see how the snowpack is holding up and check on new snow amounts from Friday’s storm. Below 7500′ it’s still low tide with rocks, bushes and the like lurking just beneath the new snow. 5-6″ had fallen near 6800′. Climbing through 7000′, the snowpack builds considerably and so too had new snow amounts from the 1/3 storm. Above 8000′ a solid 12″ of new, lower density snow rested atop a bulletproof rain crust. Even higher up in the backcountry, the new snow had not yet bonded well to the underlying crusts, creating slippy trailbreaking, especially on steep traverses. Snow depths above 8000′ range between 3-5′.

The recent storm vastly improved skiing in the backcountry. While there is a decent snowpack up high on the west shore, it’s still somewhat lumpy in bouldery areas and in some cases, rocks are only covered with the most recent snow. Sharks still lurk. Up high, fast, fluffy initial turns bottomed out with rough, abrupt scrapes underfoot. A few turns conjured the question,”Was that ice or granite?”

Further down-mountain, the lurking crust made itself ever more known into the low tide zone where the greater probability of skiing into a barely-covered rock or snag added a dash of spicy anxiety to each turn.

It’s good and fun out there, but more snow, please.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The desire for more snow is going to be put on hold for the next few weeks as a pattern dominated by high pressure with few storms and generally above average temps looks to set in to mid-month. Expect sunshine and generally mild temps during the day with highs in the 40s at the lake, 30s in the backcountry.

Early this week a backdoor slider will increase NE winds and drop temps late Mon and Tues (1/6 -1/7). A few snow showers aren’t out of the question with this system, but models are trending pretty dry this morning. Temps behind the system will cool with highs only around freezing for Tues at lake level.

Mainly sunny and mild conditions will return for the rest of the work week with highs in the low 40s, slowly moderating to the upper 40s by late week. Expect inversions to return with morning fog, low clouds and cool temps around the lake, while peaks and ridges experience warmer temps under a dryer airmass. The dry air may help preserve any shady pockets of cold, soft snow in the backcountry that remain from the most recent storm.

This pattern looks to hold strong into the second full week of Jan. with no consistent signals for big storms on the horizon.

0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.5 deg. w/ 99% RH

0530 temp. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 32 deg.

0630 temp. at 9900′: 30.2 deg.

Backcountry obs:

The second morning of 2025 dawned warm, foggy, and damp in the backcountry. The freezing line hovered around or just above 8500′ on the drive up to the Rose area amidst dense fog, especially above 8000′. No new snow or precip appears to have fallen since the last system, but a thin, breakable, and zippy 2-4mm crust covers all aspects from at least 8600′ – 9900′, getting thinner in the higher elevations. Beneath this layer, ~ 6″ of soft, yet dense snow from the last storm system sits atop a stout rain crust.

Despite the recent warmth, the snowpack has grown above 8000′ throughout the end of Dec. Coverage is generally solid with low tide conditions beginning to give way. Storms bringing warmth and occasional rain, followed by snow and cold, have soaked and refrozen the snowpack into what feels like a solid, stable blob. Below 8000′, depth falls off considerably reflecting the recent pattern of warm storms and high snow levels.

It’s still skiable out there, but be prepared for some combat in making each heavy, crusty turn. Somewhere down the line there’s sure to be a payoff for this season’s extended run of crossfit skiing.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The recent run of warm, mediocre storms looks to be coming to an end in the next few days, but not before one more storm delivers another quick shot of wind, rain, and snow. And after this storm, models show the tap turning off for the near future.

Today (1/2) expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs reaching the upper 40s around the lake, upper 30s – lower 40s in the backcountry. Tonight winds increase ahead of the next system with temps cooling only modestly to lower 30s in the backcountry, mid-upper 30s in town.

Late tomorrow morning, the next round of precip arrives with a mix of moderate rain and snow below 7000′, before snow levels fall below 6000′ in the early afternoon. The storm will arrive with a quick burst of snow, depositing 6-8″+ in the backcountry above 7000′ to 1-3″ around the lake, before tapering off late tomorrow afternoon to just a few showers into the overnight on Friday.

Temps will fall throughout the day Fri (1/3), and continue dropping Friday night as the storm departs, leaving a cooler airmass under clearing skies. By dawn on Sat, low temps should be in the 10s above 7000′ with low 20s at lake level under mostly clear skies.

This weekend will be sunny and cool with highs in the 30s on Sat and lower 40s on Sun. Lows will recover each night with 10s and 20s, helping to preserve whatever snow falls from Friday’s storm.

And we’ll take whatever cold we can get. Beyond the weekend, models agree on high pressure and dry conditions for at least the next week, maybe out til mid-month.

Get what you can, while you can.