Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Back to winter

March 3rd, 2025
0400 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 26.1° / 22.1° dew point / 84% RH/ 2″ new snow.

0515 wx. at 7140′ west shore TH: 23°/ 4″ new snow

0630 wx. at 8640′ pinnacle along the Sierra Crest: 18.3° / dew point 16.2° /relative humidity 95% / over cast with light freezing fog / SW winds at 7 mph, gusting to 10 mph

Backcountry obs.:

The backcountry is in transition back to winter! This weekend, a morning tour on southerly aspects in the Mt. Rose area revealed very springlike conditions with refrozen melt freeze crusts at dawn, softening to smooth corn by mid morning. By afternoon on Sat. (3/1), warm temps. baked solar aspects into thick, over ripened corn, sliced and diced with deep trenches by snow sliders.

Rapidly falling temps. associated with the arrival of a weak storm late Sat. refroze all old snow surfaces into hard crusts by evening. On Sunday, the system dropped a light refresh of dust on crust, mainly near the Sierra crest, with lower elevation and eastern zones receiving barely a trace.

This morning (3/3), a predawn tour along the west shore up to the Sierra crest revealed 6-8″ of new, moderate density snow resting atop frozen crusts from the recent warm period. Some wind affected surfaces existed near treeline along ridges, but coverage was minimal and confined to only the most exposed ridge features. Animal tracks left from the overnight hours remained fresh and unaffected by wind throughout forested areas in the new snow.

The new snow felt generally right-side up and did not evidence any obvious instabilities. Turns on sheltered, NE aspects were mainly fluffy, bouncy and smooth with only a few scrapes along underlying crusts on wind-exposed features. A sneaker pow morning, indeed.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The weak storm that began impacting the area on Sunday (3/2) has departed this afternoon (3/3), leaving cool temps., clearing skies, and a few inches of new snow across the Tahoe backcountry.

Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the teens and low 20s above 7000’.

Tomorrow (3/4), skies will start out mostly sunny, before a weak frontal system ushers in SW breezes, increasing clouds and chances for snow showers into the afternoon and evening. Any accumulations will be an inch or less tomorrow. Highs above 7000′ should top out in the mid 30s.

Another weak to moderate system is poised to move into the area later Tues. pm through Weds. and into Thurs., bringing chances for more snow, especially from Tahoe southward. Models as of this afternoon indicate growing confidence in the development of a cold Tonopah low, which, with a little luck, can bring surprising amounts of cold snow to the Sierra, especially to the Carson Range. 6-12” of cold, light snow looks very possible for the Tahoe backcountry Weds.-Thurs. afternoon (3/5-3/6). Locally higher amounts could materialize depending on the strength and positioning of the low.

Another break in the action rolls in for the weekend with mostly clear skies, light winds and cool temps across the backcountry for Sat. and Sun. (3/8-3/9). Temps. will warm on Sun. approaching the low 40s for backcountry areas near and above 7000′.

As the weekend winds down, models show another parade of storms rolling through next week, potentially more significant than the modest refreshes this week. While timing and specifics still vary from model to model, the overall trend across is for wetter and cooler than average conditions. Additionally, signals for stronger, cold storms throughout the week are consistently showing up across model runs. Confidence in at least one significant storm is growing, but clarity on specifics remains elusive. Winter has more to give.
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Taste of spring before winter’s return; and a note about NOAA

February 28th, 2025
0500 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 33.1° / 22.6° dew point / mostly clear skies / calm winds

Backcountry conditions:

Snow in the Rose backcountry over the past week has been largely stable and spring-like. Cold mornings have refrozen snow surfaces into hard melt-freeze crusts that soften each morning and early afternoon under warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

Nights have been largely clear and dry, promoting efficient cooling and below freezing temps on snow surfaces. On Thurs. morning (2/27) at 0630, I observed air temps at 1.5m above the surface at 34.5° on the summit of Tamarack Peak, while temps on the snow surface registered 24°. The dry airmass and evaporational cooling, along with clear skies, helped keep snow frozen even in above freezing temps!

As previously noted, timing and aspect selection are key to finding the perfect snow softness in this spring regime: too early and snow is hard and chattery, too late and it’s all mush and sweaty mashed potatoes.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Change is a’comin! Spring will hold out today and tomorrow (2/28-3/1) with mostly sunny skies and warm afternoon temps into the upper 40s to near 50 throughout the Tahoe backcountry. Overnight Sat. and into Sun., a modest, yet cold storm will move into the area bringing a quick hit of snow to the area, likely refreshing backcountry surfaces with cold, soft powder.

Timing for the Sun. storm has recently pushed back a bit, with the most impactful snowfall rates coming throughout the day on Sun., tapering off in the evening. Current models show the storm favoring areas along the crest from Tahoe southward. Expect anywhere from 2-8″ of new snow by Mon. morning (3/3), with highest amounts falling along the crest and south.

SW winds will increase as the storm moves in on Sat. night and early Sun., although they look fairly modest by Sierra standards.

By Mon. (3/3), the storm moves out leaving cooler temps., partly cloudy skies, and lingering snow showers in its wake. Expect highs above 7000′ in the 20s to low 30s for Mon. and Tues.

A more significant storm — yet still not a whopper by Sierra standards — looks likely for the middle of next week: Weds-Fri. (3/5-3/7). This one is again looking cold, bringing additional snow to all backcountry zones above 6000′. As of today, the mid-week storm looks to favor areas from Tahoe southward.

Luckily, the pattern looks cold and wet heading into the middle of March, with more opportunities for larger systems to impact the Sierra and boost snowpack. Current extended outlooks show high probabilities for above normal precip. and below normal temps.

Most years the Sierra crescendos throughout March and into early April. The best is still yet to come…

A note about NOAA and NWS:

Yesterday, hundreds of federal employees at NOAA and NWS were summarily fired by DOGE and the Trump administration. This first round of firings affected probationary and temporary employees, those who are either recent hires or recently promoted to senior level positions. The jobs lost affected people across the board, including data scientists, hydrologists, and shift meteorologists at local NWS offices. Fire weather forecasters and incident meteorologists were not spared either.

The losses and impacts on the public will be significant. Many of the lost positions are mission critical to protecting public safety and infrastructure around the country. The work of NOAA provides the backbone for our understanding of the climate: how to stay safe, prosper within it, and adapt to a changing future. Since their inception, these agencies have provided a critical public good enjoyed by all Americans.

More RIFs (parlance for ‘reduction in force’) are imminent across NOAA and NWS with public plans of nearly 60% of the total workforce being dismissed in the coming year. Yesterday was just the first round.

If you appreciate the work of NOAA and NWS and want to do something, please contact your respective member of Congress by phone and voice your opinion directly. Ask them to advocate for our local forecasters and public that benefit from their work.

In the Sierra, those representatives are Mark Amodei of NV (775-686-5760) and Kevin Kiley of CA (916-724-2575).

Thank you.
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A warm week, then return to winter

February 25th, 2025
0410 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 31.8° / 17.4° dew point / 54% RH

0515 wx. at 8400′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 31° / mostly clear skies / light SW winds with moderate gusts

0630 wx. at 9500′: 28.7° / -11.8° dew point / 16.8% RH / clear skies / SW winds at 8 mph, gusting to 14 mph.

Backcountry obs.:

Hard. Scratchy. Slippy. Loud. Hateful. Any of the aforementioned adjectives can be used alone or together to accurately describe both the skin up and descent conditions currently found in the backcountry. Cold snow that persisted in the higher elevations over the weekend is largely gone, cooked into melt/freeze surfaces across the majority of elevations and aspects.

Stout, supportable melt-freeze surfaces exist on E-S-NW aspects at all elevations. In sheltered N and NE zones below treeline, a 1/4 to 1/2″ non-supportable crust tops remnant soft snow. The breakable crust offers a slight reprieve from edge slipping and backsliding now common in skintracks. Minimize misery; bring ski crampons.

Heavy usage from the past two weekends, especially during warm periods, has left the snowpack tracked and rutted in popular zones, providing rough, chattery dawn descents.

Warm temps. continuing throughout the workweek should quickly soften snow surfaces each morning, providing buttery corn turns if timed just right in the late morning/early afternoon.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Well-above average, spring-like temps will continue throughout the work week under mostly clear skies. Highs through Fri (2/28) will reach the middle to upper 40s above 7000′, with lows dipping to near or just below freezing each night. A generally dry airmass will also aid in nightly surface refreezes through evaporational cooling.

While cold mornings make for hard, leg-pounding dawn patrol laps, this spring pattern does create prime conditions for an early season corn harvest for those that can time the snow just right.

Looking ahead, winter is plotting a return around the beginning of March. Forecast ensembles show a return to a colder, more active pattern starting this coming weekend (3/1-3/2). A modest system could begin impacting the area by late Sat (3/1), bringing good chances for snow showers and light accumulations into Sun and possibly Mon (3/2-3/3). Temps will cool with the new pattern, bringing snow levels below 7000′. Precip. amounts look light and variable at this time, but a surface refresh from the first system isn’t out of the question.

Looking ahead to later in the week, there are hints for increasingly impactful systems with the potential to drop more significant amounts of snow. Additionally, the upper level flow appears to continue steering storms into the Sierra into the second week of the month.
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Back to winter

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Taste of spring before winter’s return; and a note about NOAA

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A warm week, then return to winter

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