Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry obs:

0515 wx. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 30°F / mostly cloudy / calm winds / new snow: trace – .5″

0720 wx. at 9800′ backcountry summit: 27.0°F / 24.2°F dew point / RH 89% / mostly cloudy / winds SW 5-10mph / new snow: .5-1″

Cooler temps and some light flurries descended upon the Mt. Rose backcountry early this morning as evidenced by refrozen surface rain crusts covered with a light dusting of new snow. Snow levels at 0500 hovered around 8500′, slowly descending throughout the early morning.

On the snow, conditions are generally scratchy, crusty, and skied out. Tracks leftover from the holiday week have melted and refrozen into immovable ruts and chunks, perfect for testing supple, early season legs. Breakable crusts cover all elevations and aspects due to the uniform warmth and generally light rainfall over the past 36 hours. In untracked areas, crusts are barely supportable enough for smooth turns at speed. It’s another good early season training day.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Despite today’s break in the action, this weekend two rounds of new snow and wind will affect the Tahoe backcountry starting in the wee hours of Sat. morning (1/3), lasting through Mon. (1/5). Expect the heaviest precip. Sat AM through Sat. late afternoon, then again Sun. at daybreak through late Sun. night. By the time the storm system winds down late on Monday, another 1-2′ of new snow is likely above 7000′ with higher amounts favored on the West Shore and along the Sierra Crest. Down around lake level, precip. will start as rain and snow on Sat. morning, before transitioning to all snow late on Sat. afternoon and lasting through Mon. afternoon.

Today’s (1/2) weather has largely provided a break in the storm action with mild temps and mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Highs today will reach the low to mid 30s in most locations above 7000′ under a hazy, filtered sun.

Tonight clouds and winds increase ahead of a series of disturbances that will likely drop between 1-2′ of new snow above 7000′ from Sat – Mon (1/3-1/5) as a trough of low pressure deepens off the CA coast, ushering in colder air and ample Pacific moisture into the Sierra.

Much like previous storms this year, precip. will initially start as rain on Sat. morning as high as 7500′-8000′ before transitioning to snow throughout the day as snow levels quickly crash. By late Sat., snow levels will likely be at or just above lake level and slowly falling throughout the evening, bringing accumulating snows back to Tahoe communities through late on Mon (1/5). Much like the Christmas storm, temps may struggle to drop below freezing at lake level until colder air arrives with round 2 on Sun. However, it’ll be all snow for the backcountry above 7000′.

Unlike earlier in the week when models displayed a wide range of outcomes, latest ensemble guidance for snow levels and precip. has come into better alignment today.

After this round of storms, models hint at another cold system potentially impacting the Sierra mid-late next week bringing another refresh to the snow pack.

Looking way out into the second week of the month, ensembles suggest a ridge of high pressure building in the central-eastern Pacific, placing the Sierra in the descending branch of the jet stream in a cooler and drier than average pattern. It’s a long way out, but such patterns tend to be conducive for “inside sliders”, producing cold temps and light snow.

Buckle up. It’s about to get good again.

Backcountry obs.:

While beneficial snowfall and abundant powder graced the final week of 2025 across the Tahoe Sierra, the last day of the year featured warm, cooked snow and generally sloppy conditions in the backcountry.

Dawn broke this morning with overcast skies, inverted temps, warm winds, and cooked powder on the West Shore. Ascending from 7000′, temps at 0530 hovered at or just below freezing and large surface hoar coated the snow surface in open areas along still-open creeks. Ascending out of the drainage on a north facing slope, temps quickly warmed into the mid 30s and the forest hissed with the sound of water dripping off tree limbs onto soft snow beneath. Topping out at 8500′, balmy temps hovered around 40°F with a 36°F dew point. I could almost taste the warm, salty air mass inbound from the subtropics.

The snow skied as expected: warm, grabby, and strenuous. Good early season training. Lingering lower elevation inversions held the best snow and fastest turns. Too bad they were only a few hundred feet above the car. Now come the rains.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

For the rest of the week, the backcounty will enter a reset period with warmth and rain reaching the highest Tahoe summits Thurs (1/1) and Fri (1/2) before cold air and snow return, deepening and refreshing the backcountry above 7000′. This weekend two pulses of moisture and cold air will likely drop between 1-2′ of new snow above 7000′, while lower elevations see a mix of rain and snow, eventually turning to all snow late Sat through the remainder of the weekend. Early next week models depict more cold storminess with additional impulses shipping more snow inbound to Tahoe.

Today through early Friday (12/31-1/2) a warm, wet low will bring light to moderate rainfall across all backcountry areas, spoiling whatever good snow remains.

While the current system is warm with snow levels above 10k’, its approach from the south, coupled with weak dynamic forcing will limit rainfall amounts to less than 1″ through New Years Day, with lesser amounts east of the Sierra Crest. Snow levels eventually fall on New Years Day, just in time for precip to end.

Friday (1/2) will be mostly dry and cool with a few errant showers possible across the mountains. Temps will be in the 20s to low 30s above 7000′ under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

By early Sat morning (1/3), another storm, this time much colder, approaches Tahoe from the NW with abundant moisture, dynamics, and a colder air mass. Snow levels will start around 7000′ with the Sat. storm, then quickly fall to near lake level by Sat. evening. A foot of snow could fall above 7000′, especially near the crest, erasing the damage done by recent warm temps and rain.

Snow showers, at times heavy, will continue into Sat. night and into Sunday (1/4), becoming steadier as the day progresses, as another impulse impacts the region, bringing more snow to all elevations. By Sun. night, another foot could accumulate in the backcountry above 7000′ with lesser amounts down to lake level.

Here’s a look at GEFS ensemble guidance for freezing levels through Weds. (1/7). Colder air looks to filter in with time along with more chances for snow through early next week.

Worth noting is the significant model spread, ie uncertainty, from Fri. onward. Much could still change as it has over the past 36 hours. Recently models have been trending wetter for the weekend storms and pushing the heaviest precip to Sun.

Despite a bit of sloppiness on New Year’s Eve, the atmosphere looks to get its act together in the name of good snow going into 2026. Happy New Year!

Total snow accumulations at 6350′ from 12/24-12/26: 21″

Total observed snow depth at 8900′ in Mt. Rose backcountry on 12/29 @ 0642: 78.7″

Backcountry obs:

Across the Tahoe Sierra, the Christmas week storm train dropped anywhere from 4-6′ of new snow in the backcountry above 7000′. Because snow levels started high, upper elevations received notably more snow. The backcountry is now set with a base for the season, even in zones down to 7000′. Because much of the snow fell heavy and wet with inches of SWE, then lightened towards the end of the cycle with the arrival of colder air, most bushes, stumps, rock, and other sharky features have been smashed and covered. There’s a solid, reliable base out there. It’s hard to believe that only a week ago people rode mountain bikes through many of the same areas now covered in white.

Cold temps on the backside of the system have only helped set the snowpack and prolong the great skiing. Apart from storm instabilities, the snowpack set up generally right side up and has gained strength since Fri (12/26).

Snow surfaces over the weekend have remained cold, but now host a variable bag of conditions due to sunshine and strong northeasterly winds. In sheltered, shady aspects, cold, light surface snow hosts fluffy turns atop a dense base. Solar aspects have breakable surface crusts worth avoiding and prime NE facing terrain above treeline is now afflicted with variably supportable wind stiffened powder/board, thanks to the recent NE wind event. Massaging your aspect and adding some pop to turns are key to making the happiest lines.

But despite the variety bag conditions, there’s skiable, beautiful snow across all elevations and aspects. What once felt like an impossible luxury is now abundant. And more of everything is around the corner…

Weather and forecast thoughts:

A building ridge of high pressure of Western Canada and the PacNW will bring calm conditions with seasonably cool temps for the next few days. After remaining in the 20s on Sat and Sun (12/27-12/28), temps will moderate into the upper 20s to low 30s above 7000′ for the remainder of 2025, with lows in the 20s each night.

Inversions that developed last night will continue early in the week under the stable air mass. This morning it was 6°F in Martis Valley, 15°F at the 8650′ Rose backcountry TH and 26.9°F on a 9100′ ridge top. Skies through the middle of the week will be generally sunny, though clouds will likely creep back into the region around New Year’s Eve, heralding the arrival of the next system. The coming storm has the potential to bring more rain and snow to the Sierra starting around New Year’s Day and potentially lasting through much of the first weekend of 2026.

Worth noting is the high likelihood of elevated snow levels, especially when the next storm moves in. Currently the system, a cutoff low off Baja, is faffing about pumping warm, moisture rich air deep into the atmosphere in the subtropical eastern Pacific.

Eventually models depict this low merging with a developing trough extending from the Gulf of Alaska down the West Coast, which will likely introduce colder air into the system.

This is a complicated pattern. Over the coming days models and their forecasts will likely shift more than a few times. The challenge is understanding how air masses from two distinct regions will phase and where a storm develops as they meet. Those details will determine how much precip. falls on the Sierra, in what form, and where.

For example, the latest ensembles forecasting freezing levels and precip. for the Tahoe Basin are all over the map. From New Years Day through the first few days of January, there’s decent agreement of precip. and high snow levels initially above 9000′, but quite a bit of spread in both timing, how much precip., and how high freezing levels will be.

Stepping back from it all, expect 2026 to start with an unsettled pattern dishing out just about everything starting with rain and warmth, then trending colder.

Enjoy the present conditions while they last. The future’s a mixed bag.