0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.5 deg. w/ 99% RH
0530 temp. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 32 deg.
0630 temp. at 9900′: 30.2 deg.
Backcountry obs:
The second morning of 2025 dawned warm, foggy, and damp in the backcountry. The freezing line hovered around or just above 8500′ on the drive up to the Rose area amidst dense fog, especially above 8000′. No new snow or precip appears to have fallen since the last system, but a thin, breakable, and zippy 2-4mm crust covers all aspects from at least 8600′ – 9900′, getting thinner in the higher elevations. Beneath this layer, ~ 6″ of soft, yet dense snow from the last storm system sits atop a stout rain crust.
Despite the recent warmth, the snowpack has grown above 8000′ throughout the end of Dec. Coverage is generally solid with low tide conditions beginning to give way. Storms bringing warmth and occasional rain, followed by snow and cold, have soaked and refrozen the snowpack into what feels like a solid, stable blob. Below 8000′, depth falls off considerably reflecting the recent pattern of warm storms and high snow levels.
It’s still skiable out there, but be prepared for some combat in making each heavy, crusty turn. Somewhere down the line there’s sure to be a payoff for this season’s extended run of crossfit skiing.
Weather and forecast thoughts:
The recent run of warm, mediocre storms looks to be coming to an end in the next few days, but not before one more storm delivers another quick shot of wind, rain, and snow. And after this storm, models show the tap turning off for the near future.
Today (1/2) expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs reaching the upper 40s around the lake, upper 30s – lower 40s in the backcountry. Tonight winds increase ahead of the next system with temps cooling only modestly to lower 30s in the backcountry, mid-upper 30s in town.
Late tomorrow morning, the next round of precip arrives with a mix of moderate rain and snow below 7000′, before snow levels fall below 6000′ in the early afternoon. The storm will arrive with a quick burst of snow, depositing 6-8″+ in the backcountry above 7000′ to 1-3″ around the lake, before tapering off late tomorrow afternoon to just a few showers into the overnight on Friday.
Temps will fall throughout the day Fri (1/3), and continue dropping Friday night as the storm departs, leaving a cooler airmass under clearing skies. By dawn on Sat, low temps should be in the 10s above 7000′ with low 20s at lake level under mostly clear skies.
This weekend will be sunny and cool with highs in the 30s on Sat and lower 40s on Sun. Lows will recover each night with 10s and 20s, helping to preserve whatever snow falls from Friday’s storm.
And we’ll take whatever cold we can get. Beyond the weekend, models agree on high pressure and dry conditions for at least the next week, maybe out til mid-month.
Get what you can, while you can.
Tahoe Backcountry Snow 