Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 26.1 deg. & 89% RH / .5″ new snow

No obs. from the backcountry today as the next storm affects the region.

Forecast Thoughts:

NWS Reno is more bullish with the snow totals for the incoming storm with a solid 1-2′ for the Tahoe Basin.

It’s been snowing lightly since last night and this morning has begun to pick up in intensity with short waves ahead of the main system. The bulk of the energy looks to arrive late morning and into the afternoon and evening. This is perfect timing for the storm to get an extra boost from afternoon convective energy. Hopefully we can get some intense snow bands setting up with snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour later today.

Although this system has some similarity’s to the 1/6 event, every storm is unique. Today’s storm is coming in a bit warmer, so expect the snow character, especially below 7000′ to be a bit denser. This is good news for adding a base to the backcountry snow pack and hopefully making more zones accessible. A solid base also adds resilience to the snow pack in the event of a prolonged warm/dry spell later this winter.

The system showing up for Sat/Sun is still looking likely, but it doesn’t look to be major by any stretch. Models are still mixed on whether the bulk of the energy will come into the PacNW or a bit further south towards the northern Sierra. Either way, this one will favor areas to the north with the eastern Sierra south of Tahoe largely missing out. There will also be more warmth with this system as snow levels look to begin tickling lake level, 6229′.

Quieter weather and a slow moderating trend follow the weekend system. Looking at models out in the Pacific, the storm door doesn’t appear to be closing, but discerning any specifics on storms, timing, and their flavor for the next week and beyond is next to impossible. Just gotta wait and see, and ski the new snow falling today.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.6 deg. / No new snow.

0530 temp. at 8600′ Tamarack TH: 24 deg. / No new snow.

Backcountry Obs.

I woke up to some lenticulars mixed with starry skies this morning, but this quickly turned into fog and intense WNW winds in the backcountry. Skinning up from the Tamarack TH, WNW gusts raked the ridge connecting E and W Galena Peaks with a deafening roar. Occasional gusts made it down to my level kicking up spin drifts and blowing snow, but nothing strong enough to turn me around.

Snow surface in the trees was textured, but still soft and becoming more consolidated since the 1/6 storm. As I climbed towards treeline and the summit of Tamarack, winds increased and their effects on the snow surface did too. Consistent buffed powder turned into wind board, drummy wind pillows and even some exposed crust. Plenty of snow was available for transport being deposited in lee E-SE aspects.

The skiing this morning is varied with assorted cold wind affected surfaces. As such, each turn offered something different for the whole family: crust, soft buff, scratchy cold board, textured soft powder, you name it! Other than the obvious wind loading, I noted no other obvious signs of instability.

Forecast Thoughts:

Today will be a bit milder than the past few days with highs in the 30’s under a mix of clouds, sun, and snow showers. Not much accumulation is expected with highest amounts along the crest.

NWS Reno hoisted a winter storm warning for the Wednesday storm and has trended up a bit in the snow forecast: 8-14″ around the lake with 1-2′ above 7000′. Like the 1/6 event, this one looks to come in as a NW slider complete with intense prefrontal winds and a quick, cold shot of snow starting Wednesday morning and tapering off in the evening. Snowfall rates of 1-3″ per hour during the main event appear likely. Highs tomorrow will be lucky to hit 30 in Tahoe communities, while the mountains will stay nice and cold as the snow dumps.

The outlook for the weekend and beyond continues to confound. The GFS shows a milder storm gracing our area with a glancing blow. The Euro favors a more significant storm, but also a bit warmer than the sliders we’ve experienced recently. The issue at play is the placement of the low pressure associated with the storm: the GFS brings the low in near the Puget Sound, while the Euro brings it in near the CA/OR border. The other global forecasting models are equally split between the two solutions. Only time will tell which flavor of weather we’ll have over MLK weekend. We’re going to get something, just how big and how warm is the kicker.

Beyond next weekend is even more uncertain. The latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks published yesterday. Both indicated greater chances of above average precip. and above average temps. The deterministic models are all over the place, changing with each run. All the uncertainty definitely makes looking ahead and trying to decipher what’s to come more exciting.

For now though, the snow will only get better from tomorrow through the rest of the work week. Best get out there and enjoy while it’s here.

6:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.9 deg.

No new snow in the past 24 hours.

Forecast Thoughts:

After heaping bowls of powder yesterday, I took a day off today. No backcountry report.

This morning dawned cold and clear, but quickly clouded over from the N shortly after daybreak. Low clouds look to be streaming in from the PacNW from some warm air advecting into the region in the upper levels. Highs today should get near to just above freezing around the lake.

Tomorrow a small disturbance comes through dropping some light snow, but likely nothing more than an inch and change at most.

Wednesday’s system looks to be holding together and appears very similar to the Saturday storm in track, duration, and snow amounts. The storm will tumble down from the NW bringing strong winds and 4-6 hours of heavy snow in the 1-2″ per hour range, before quickly tapering off to showers and clear skies by Wednesday night/Thurs. AM. Expect cold temps on Thurs. am. I think anywhere from 4″ on the east shore to 10″ on the west at lake level isn’t too much to expect from this one. Amounts will increase with elevation and proximity to the crest, with the higher backcountry zones hopefully getting a foot or more.

This weekend the script begins to change. Models aren’t really settling on anything specific beyond a solid chance of unsettled weather and a storm coming into the west coast. The atmospheric dynamics that have been keeping us cold with blower pow-type storms are going to start changing. A high pressure center SW of CA near 130W will greatly impact the storm track and how much/what we get. If it nudges a few hundred miles further W, that’ll help us get a decent cold storm. If it comes closer to us, the energy will be deflected into the PacNW and then east of us with milder temps. Most models bring the temps up to what looks like a 5-6k’ snow line–better snow for building a base in the mountains. However, when forecasts bring snow levels up, I get a little nervous to see how high they will actually go.

Some models bring the storm and the bulk of its moisture in over the PacNW, then out towards Utah and Colorado, others bring it further south. Whatever the track, it is different from our current pattern or NW sliders coming in from the Gulf of Alaska.

There are 5-6 days between now and then, so more time will help models iron out the inconsistencies and clarify the pattern’s evolution. For now, there’s some more cold smoke on the way midweek. Best get out and enjoy it while it’s here.