Tahoe Backcountry Snow

10pm temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.2 deg. & 84% RH

No info from the backcountry today.

Forecast/current weather thoughts:

It finally feels like winter is here with consistently colder temperatures since Saturday. Lows in the twenties and highs in the upper thirties to maybe 40 for only a few hours. Now if we can just get some precipitation…

Models continue to be shaky in the long term, but continue showing something affecting Tahoe every few days or so. The next storm comes tomorrow night through early am Thursday. Both the GFS and Euro are consistently betting on a solid few inches to a foot or so in the Tahoe Sierra with snow at all elevations.

Additional snowfall looks to come around the weekend, but confidence in that system’s strength is low. Could do the cutoff dance again.

So far this season it feels like the cutoff low has reigned which makes predictability tough. Getting a system with a strong jet phasing with subtropical moisture and a North Pacific low just seems impossible. Such a difference from last season.

Either way, the next few days hold hope for more snow, so I eagerly await the outcome.

5am temp at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.3 deg.

5:30am car temp from 8600’ Tamarack TH: 12 deg.

New snow in Tamarack zone: 1-3’

Not sure I would call 1-3″ a full refresh, but it was nice to have some fresh snow on the ground this morning. All old tracks and crusts are still visible or noticeable while descending. The new snow did improve skinning and skiing conditions with some cold softness in each turn before hitting the crust or old soft snow beneath.

There was little if any wind affect to the snow surface, even high up on the ridges. No instabilities or red flags noted either.

Forecast Thoughts:

Models continue to show disturbances every few days for the coming week. One comes in from the NW around midweek, another next weekend. Both don’t look impressive by Sierra standards as they both seem to lack any strong fetch of subtropical moisture, in addition to having a closed low character that could drag them down along the coast keeping most moisture west of the Crest. Both do appear to be quite cold, so anything that falls will likely be snow, even at lake level.

Here’s to a new year and hoping that we get some decent snowfall to refresh the backcountry in the coming days. Or with some luck, build up a base so folks can spread out to more zones in the region.

5:00am temp at 6350′: 33.8 / RH 89%

5:45am temp at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 34

New snow in last 24hrs: 0 in.

I toured this morning in the Mt. Rose area around Tamarack Peak to check to see if the shady NW-E aspects are holding cold snow and if the last little system dropped anything.

I observed no new snow from the last wave that passed through overnight 12/27-28. The sensor on top of Slide Mtn. crested freezing yesterday (12/28)–and remained above freezing for most of the night– but RH stayed fairly low, so I hoped evaporational cooling would keep snow grains from melting. Driving up from lake level suggested some mild inversions with the temp at the lake just a bit lower than up at the TH along with some low hanging freezing fog around a few meadows. Obs this morning on my tour showed that to be the case. Some pockets of cold snow remain in shaded areas, but anything receiving direct sunlight or any disturbance has crusted over. The Tamarack zone has been hit hard with skier traffic looking more like a resort at 4pm on a powder day than the backcountry. Refresh needed.

Mid-upper level passing clouds and moderate S/SW winds on the summit seem to be announcing the arrival of the next disturbance. Little to no snow available for wind transport.

Forecast Thoughts:

NWS Reno hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight through Sat. PM in the Tahoe Basin for the next impulse: 8-12″ on the crest with 1-4″ around the lake level. Overnight models trended down a touch for precip. It looks like the backcountry will likely get a surface refresh, maybe a bit more with some luck. I’m not expecting this one to open up any more zones further down mountain, but anything helps our meager snowpack at this point. An aesthetic few inches at lake level would also be appreciated so that it feels like winter.

The trend towards an active and cooler pattern with waves of moisture every few days still shows this morning, but nothing looks impressive and consistent enough to instill confidence. After the Fri-Sat system, a cutoff low looks to develop and swing south of the SoCal coast 12/31-1/1, followed by a modest system around the 3rd that could give us another few inches of refresh. Beyond that, models continue to ebb and flow showing disturbances with variations between each model run.

For now, I’ll just keep hope alive for a refresh.