Tahoe Backcountry Snow

4:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.3 deg.

New snow: 3.5 in.

5:30am temp. at 8600′ Tamarack Peak TH: 16 deg.

New snow observed in the Tamarack BC: 3-7 in.

Backcountry Obs.

Tahoe finally got some measurable snowfall for the first time in at least a few weeks, even though in a big year, this storm would barely be noticeable. Snow started last night around 6:30pm and continued through the night. This morning the main band of snow has departed and left light flurries/snow showers in its wake with mostly cloudy skies in the Tahoe Basin. As predicted, points on the western side of the basin and along the crest received the most snow.

This morning I intended to finally ski something different and opted for Incline Peak. But after noticing how little snow appeared to have fallen in that area, I pushed on to Tamarack Peak. I found 3 inches or so had accumulated near the trailhead with some wind sculpting on the surface. All previous tracks from weeks of heavy use have been buffed and filled into a virgin surface. Higher up near the summit, 6-7 in. seemed to have fallen, but exact amounts were tough to measure due to wind affect. Moderate SW winds increased in intensity as I climbed and light snow fell during my whole tour.

The descent was excellent, likely feeling even better due to the weeks of anticipation of any snow surface that wasn’t crust, rocks and stumps. Exposed ridges and bowls did have some wind effect/slight stiffness, but the trees skied soft, fluffy and fast: fast pow!

I observed no obvious stability red flags like whumping or shooting cracks. There was a fair amount of wind transport onto N-E exposed slopes and I did see some growing wind slabs. Along the far east ridge of Tamarack a hand pit revealed a growing slab around 6 in. deep. Stomps and ski cuts did not produce results.

Forecast Thoughts:

The long-hinted at colder and active pattern seems to be upon us. NWS Reno has been consistent in their outlook for the weekend storm putting down the most snow of the season at all elevations–still not saying much. However, a solid foot on the crest and in the backcountry might have 50% or better odds. Lake level would likely be half that. I’m not getting too excited as the models have seemed more tepid than the official forecast shows. Need to wait and see.

A small inside slider type disturbance will precede the weekend storm and could give a dandruffing to the area at best.

Further out, another storm shows up for early/middle of next week and more every few days thereafter. Models do show quite a bit of variation on the storms that are further out, so this is keeping confidence in snow amounts low. Some look much like what we’ve been getting, others show some big boys around the middle of the month. However, there is consistency in that the GFS and Euro ensembles do show an active pattern.

I’ll take whatever we can get.

10pm temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.2 deg. & 84% RH

No info from the backcountry today.

Forecast/current weather thoughts:

It finally feels like winter is here with consistently colder temperatures since Saturday. Lows in the twenties and highs in the upper thirties to maybe 40 for only a few hours. Now if we can just get some precipitation…

Models continue to be shaky in the long term, but continue showing something affecting Tahoe every few days or so. The next storm comes tomorrow night through early am Thursday. Both the GFS and Euro are consistently betting on a solid few inches to a foot or so in the Tahoe Sierra with snow at all elevations.

Additional snowfall looks to come around the weekend, but confidence in that system’s strength is low. Could do the cutoff dance again.

So far this season it feels like the cutoff low has reigned which makes predictability tough. Getting a system with a strong jet phasing with subtropical moisture and a North Pacific low just seems impossible. Such a difference from last season.

Either way, the next few days hold hope for more snow, so I eagerly await the outcome.

5am temp at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.3 deg.

5:30am car temp from 8600’ Tamarack TH: 12 deg.

New snow in Tamarack zone: 1-3’

Not sure I would call 1-3″ a full refresh, but it was nice to have some fresh snow on the ground this morning. All old tracks and crusts are still visible or noticeable while descending. The new snow did improve skinning and skiing conditions with some cold softness in each turn before hitting the crust or old soft snow beneath.

There was little if any wind affect to the snow surface, even high up on the ridges. No instabilities or red flags noted either.

Forecast Thoughts:

Models continue to show disturbances every few days for the coming week. One comes in from the NW around midweek, another next weekend. Both don’t look impressive by Sierra standards as they both seem to lack any strong fetch of subtropical moisture, in addition to having a closed low character that could drag them down along the coast keeping most moisture west of the Crest. Both do appear to be quite cold, so anything that falls will likely be snow, even at lake level.

Here’s to a new year and hoping that we get some decent snowfall to refresh the backcountry in the coming days. Or with some luck, build up a base so folks can spread out to more zones in the region.