Tahoe Backcountry Snow

4:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian: 18.1 deg.

24hr. snow total: 10.5″.

5:30am temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 11 deg.

Observed new snow from storm on Incline Peak: 12-16″.

Backcountry Obs.

It was a cold, windy morning on Incline Peak. Light, Utah-like powder greeted me as I descended to the meadow from the trailhead. In the trees and down low, some light wind affect on the snow surface added some visual delight to the newly refreshed winter landscape, but little else to disturb the fluffy goodness underfoot.

Climbing the peak, northerly breezes stiffened moving snow through the trees on the N side of the mountain, but did not appreciably degrade the powder. As the trees thinned within a couple hundred feet of the summit, I noted wind scouring, soft sastrugi and significant wind transport of snow from N aspects to S and SE aspects. Coverage has continued to improve, but the ultra light snow from this last storm has done little to fully bury the larger rocks and logs.

Our crew did note one whumph in the skin track as it descended a compression near a large fallen tree. Off the skinner, a density change was apparent in the new storm snow. On my first drop, I ski cut a leeward loading convexity and did trigger a fracture, but it only propagated along the feature.

The skiing is excellent today. Light, dry powder below the near treeline zones makes for big smiles floating through the trees and hopping over granite boulders fat and fluffy with new snow.

A few sharks still lurk beneath the surface. Tips up!

Storm Post Mortem and Forecast Thoughts:

The storm came and delivered as advertised. Snow began around 10am yesterday in Carnelian with strong SW winds. Temps were in the low 30’s, then crashed as the snow moved in and saturated the airmass, remaining in the 22-23 deg. range during the rest of the event. As evening fell snowfall rates began to ebb and flow as the main body of the storm moved to our south. By 8pm, skies cleared and only a few flurries remained. 10.5″ had fallen.

Many of us up here are taking a collective sigh of relief to have gotten a decent snowfall, finally. Personally, living with the omnipresent specter of climate change, it feels like each winter could be the last. The warm December storms felt unsettling and I began to wonder, “will we ever be able to get a cold storm this season? Or is it just too warm?”

The snow has come and I’m reminded: Never waste a powder day.

Looking ahead, the week starts out quite cold with highs reaching the low to mid 30’s through Tues, when a small disturbance might deliver a dusting to a few inches on the crest. Weds.-Thurs., a storm similar to this last one (cold and quick), might drop 6-12″ around the area, mainly on Weds. afternoon into evening. A nice addition, but again nothing game changing in terms of opening more terrain. No base to start out really keeps only the highest zones in play until more substantial snows fall.

The pattern looks to stay cold and unsettled for the end of the week with hints of a bigger storm next weekend. The Euro is more aggressive with this system than the GFS today, so confidence remains low. Beyond 7 days the models are still struggling, so it’s anyone’s guess. I remain hopeful.

For now, it’s time to ski. Finally.

4:15am temp at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.1 deg. Trace new snow.

5:30am temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry Obs.:

It was a cold and windy morning in the Mt. Rose backcountry today. Strong NE winds were moving lots of snow from the trailhead to the summit. At dawn along the higher ridges huge plumes of snow were being tossed onto SW aspects as the NE winds stripped any loose snow from windward exposed bowls and faces. Those denuded aspects will have a firm bed surface upon which the snow from the incoming storm will need to bond. Snow loading on other lee aspects likely poses some risk of wind slab development today.

Skiing in the trees was still cold and soft, despite the wind and occasional buffed texture. Good fun out there!

Forecast Thoughts:

The forecast for the biggest and coldest storm of the season to date is still holding. Snow moves in tomorrow am, peaks during the afternoon/evening, and then will taper to showers in the lingering cold, unstable airmass. North winds behind the system along with relatively warm waters could fire some lake effect snow bands on the south shore. Those are always fun to see. I think 1-2 feet is a safe bet depending on elevation and location.

We get a break early next week before more cold systems potentially affect the area mid/late week.

4:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.1 deg. with 89% RH

5:20am temp. at 7100′ TH in Ward Canyon: 12 deg.

Backcountry Snow Obs.:

I headed out on a tour this morning into the Ward Canyon backcountry on Tahoe’s west shore to get a sense of how the last storm came in on the crest.

Around 10 in. of new snow greeted us at the 7100′. Amounts increased up to nearly 14 in. of new snow up to the crest at 8500′. Snow character was low density, light and dry. Some snags and small trees are still poking through lower down. The earlier warm storms that dropped cement higher up in the Rose area dropped mainly rain in this area, so there is not nearly the base that other higher elevation areas currently have.

The snow skied well, but I skied mindfully keeping my tips up in the deep powder to not tag a shark. Our group also skied conservatively avoiding avalanche terrain. Yesterday parties triggered a few slides that appeared to fail on the buried persistent weak layer (PWL) lurking just below this last storm’s layer. We did observe one slide below treeline that failed on the pre-storm melt/freeze crust and the new snow on an ENE rollover into a gully. The crown wrapped a couple hundred feet across the feature and ran a few hundred feet into the gully. The party triggering the slide submitted an ob. on the Sierra Avalanche Center page.

The snow’s great, but the white monster lurks beneath.

Forecast Thoughts:

NWS Reno hoisted a Winter Storm Warning for the area for Saturday into Sunday for the next storm. We’ve been burned so far this season, but the forecast for this one seems to hold together. It also looks to be a cold storm with light dry pow throughout the event and some decent winds as well. Winds will start out of the SW, then turn around to the NW and N, so this is something to look out for in terms of loading on features and aspects that are less often associated with wind slabs.

I’m hoping for 8-10 in. at the house at 6350′ and 1-2 ft. out in the backcountry, with highest amounts on the west side of the lake above 7000′ and along the crest. Even with these amounts, the light character of the snow probably won’t open a ton of new terrain lower down below 7000′–there’s just not much of a base for it to fall on. However, maybe the grinding effect of snow grains blowing around on the ground will increase the new snow density a bit to fill in areas that don’t have a ton of snow. All in all, this one should bring more zones into play and help spread out the crowds.

Looking beyond the weekend storm, things look to remain relatively cool and unstable going into next week. More storms appear in the long range forecast for the middle/end of next week, along with another shot of colder air. Any snow that falls will be light and dry, but amounts and timing are still tough to discern.

Looking out into the Pacific, next week models show a large ridge of high pressure building from the mid latitudes of the eastern Pacific up into the Gulf of Alaska sending the jet northward, then crashing south along the west coast. This is likely going to keep funneling cold air down from the north into our area. This isn’t a scenario that tends to tap into subtropical moisture for big storms, but it could keep things cold and fluffy. Just gotta wait and see how things develop.