Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0630 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 30.0 deg. No new precip.

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Snow started picking up around 0830 near lake level. Earlier this morning cloudy skies prevailed with just an occasional flurry. As snow began in earnest, the temp. inched up to and beyond the freezing mark around 0830. Rain will likely mix in from midday onward and hopefully turn back to snow some time tonight. The cold snow is gone at lake level.

But no one really skis in the backcountry at lake level. For zones above 7000’, this will be an all snow event with amounts between 1-2’, especially along the crest and west side of the lake. The snow will be classic Sierra cement, which may be a blessing in disguise. In addition to adding coverage and base to the mountains, the heavy snow may initiate another avalanche cycle that triggers zones that have not yet cycled through the persistent weak layers deep in the snowpack from December, and more recently in the layer from 1/2. The added weight could help flush out those instabilities with a big cycle. What follows is unknown, but it would be nice to put those lurking early season white monsters to bed.

Tomorrow will be a clearing day with cool, but not particularly cold temps.

A ridge of high pressure moves in early in the week bringing mild and dry weather to the area. A system still looks like it could brush by with high snow levels and light precipitation. around midweek, but in general, a January thaw looks all but certain for the next week following this storm.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 20.5 deg.

No new snow

0530 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry Obs.

The stellar powder from yesterday has changed and is no more. NW winds have groomed out the mountains, covering up yesterday’s ski tracks and most hints of the skin track. The snow is still plenty cold and soft and skiing great, albeit a little slower.

Wind is nature’s groomer, distributing the snow in the hollows and thinner areas which is exactly what has happened. The Tamarack snow pack now feels like midwinter, rounded out over features with very few sharks lurking about. Ascending through the trees, the snow remains soft and inviting. Midway up the mountain, NW winds and their effects were obvious. Wind pillows, sastrugi and icy scoured surfaces greeted me in ridgy areas lower down than I typically expect. This continued all they way to the summit.

SE aspects–and anything lee of the recent and on-going winds–are loading with wind drifted snow. Plenty of slabs felt upside down, hollow and drum-like. Considering the recent avalanche activity yesterday, I stayed away from any suspect zones. The most popular ski zones in the area are either scoured or cross loaded this morning. Powder days are so fleeting.

Despite the change in conditions, the descent still skied great with few tracks and rounded out features to hop around and through. Oh, the joy of sliding down snow never fades.

Weather/Forecast Thoughts:

Skies at dawn were mostly cloudy with mid-upper level clouds announcing the arrival of this weekend’s storm. The forecast for 1-2′ up high, mainly above 7000-7500′. The warmth of this storm will make any snow that falls great from a base building and water resource perspective. Most of what we’ve received to date has been very low in SWE (snow water equivalent), so this could help our abysmal Sierra snow pack and water supply. Down around lake level, I’d be happy to see a few inches of slush and fear this might end up being more of a rain and slush event.

Sunday appears to be near average with clearing conditions as the storm kicks out to the east.

The upcoming week will likely feature above average temps. with a break in the storms as a ridge of high pressure builds and settles in. There is a chance of some rain/snow around the middle of the week, but the system doesn’t look significant, nor are the models in agreement. Like most of the winter, models are currently mixed looking about a week out. The GFS leans more on the high pressure/ridging side which would bring warm and dry weather, while the Euro shows a more transient ridge with a strong Pacific jet approaching the California coast from the SW around 1/22. That signal doesn’t appear terribly cold, either…

Models have been so inconsistent this season, that I wouldn’t put too much stock in any given outcome. I would however, anticipate things trending on the warmer side more times than not.

All the more reason to get out and enjoy the cold snow, whatever form it takes, while you can!

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.3 deg. and 89% RH

24 hr. new snow total: 9″

0530 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 1 deg.

Est. 24 hr. new snow 12-16″

Backcountry Obs.

It was crystalline and cold this morning in the Incline Peak backcountry. Beautiful cold, light, shin deep snow greeted us at the trailhead continuing all the way to treeline near the summit. Some density changes and layers in the new snow were noticeable breaking trail, but no whumphs or cracks appeared on our skin to the the peak. Near and above treeline there were some wind affected pillows, sastugi, and scouring, but nothing that sniffing around the corner couldn’t fix.

The skiing today was by far the best of the season. Today is the day you dream about in the fall and remember deep into next summer. The recent snow from 1/6 has consolidated a bit providing better coverage over the rocks and logs that lurked sneakily just beneath the surface last weekend. The added snow from yesterday’s storm provided cushioning between skier and stump/log/boulder. The result is a super-fun setup where one can point it top to bottom making fluffy, bottomless turns. Terrain features are mainly covered and soft, making for playful pops, jumps, and powder spraying turns. I gently grazed one boulder in a turn, but could care less. It’s just that good.

Powder days are unique and fleeting. Get it if you can.

Forecast Thoughts:

It’s tough to care about anything but the present when it’s this good. But more snow just means more fun. Another system comes into the region Fri. PM-Sat. PM and could deliver 1-2′ of new snow, mainly for the higher elevations above 7000′. This one is going to be warmer with snow levels likely at or slightly above lake level beginning on Saturday, but starting out as snow on Fri. night. NWS Reno has issued a winter storm watch for the region. The GFS has come into line this morning with what the Euro was showing for much of the week: the center of low pressure developing further south near the central/southern Oregon coast.

This brings in a juicier storm with a deeper moisture plume for the Tahoe Sierra rather than a glancing blow. The onset of the storm is 36 hours out and forecast confidence remains moderate while model agreement is just now beginning to fall in line. This leads me to think that this one could surprise us either way. The record warm waters currently in the Eastern Pacific tend to add favor to higher snow levels, but also a wetter system.

My thinking is that lake level will see a soppy few inches with rain mixing in on Saturday PM. Above 7000′, this will most likely fall entirely as dense Sierra cement. The snow won’t be blower powder, but additional coverage and resource rich snow is good for everyone, on mountain and off.

The weekend storm will clear out on Saturday night and early Sunday leaving the remaining two days of the holiday weekend sunny and seasonable, but not frigid like today. Expect highs flirting with 40 near lake level, cooler in the mountains. Lows will dip well below freezing everywhere.

Next week looks like a toss up between completely dry and mild or a mild and weak disturbance arriving midweek. All the more reason to get out now and enjoy the beautiful powder day.