Tahoe Backcountry Snow

6:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.9 deg.

No new snow in the past 24 hours.

Forecast Thoughts:

After heaping bowls of powder yesterday, I took a day off today. No backcountry report.

This morning dawned cold and clear, but quickly clouded over from the N shortly after daybreak. Low clouds look to be streaming in from the PacNW from some warm air advecting into the region in the upper levels. Highs today should get near to just above freezing around the lake.

Tomorrow a small disturbance comes through dropping some light snow, but likely nothing more than an inch and change at most.

Wednesday’s system looks to be holding together and appears very similar to the Saturday storm in track, duration, and snow amounts. The storm will tumble down from the NW bringing strong winds and 4-6 hours of heavy snow in the 1-2″ per hour range, before quickly tapering off to showers and clear skies by Wednesday night/Thurs. AM. Expect cold temps on Thurs. am. I think anywhere from 4″ on the east shore to 10″ on the west at lake level isn’t too much to expect from this one. Amounts will increase with elevation and proximity to the crest, with the higher backcountry zones hopefully getting a foot or more.

This weekend the script begins to change. Models aren’t really settling on anything specific beyond a solid chance of unsettled weather and a storm coming into the west coast. The atmospheric dynamics that have been keeping us cold with blower pow-type storms are going to start changing. A high pressure center SW of CA near 130W will greatly impact the storm track and how much/what we get. If it nudges a few hundred miles further W, that’ll help us get a decent cold storm. If it comes closer to us, the energy will be deflected into the PacNW and then east of us with milder temps. Most models bring the temps up to what looks like a 5-6k’ snow line–better snow for building a base in the mountains. However, when forecasts bring snow levels up, I get a little nervous to see how high they will actually go.

Some models bring the storm and the bulk of its moisture in over the PacNW, then out towards Utah and Colorado, others bring it further south. Whatever the track, it is different from our current pattern or NW sliders coming in from the Gulf of Alaska.

There are 5-6 days between now and then, so more time will help models iron out the inconsistencies and clarify the pattern’s evolution. For now, there’s some more cold smoke on the way midweek. Best get out and enjoy it while it’s here.

4:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian: 18.1 deg.

24hr. snow total: 10.5″.

5:30am temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 11 deg.

Observed new snow from storm on Incline Peak: 12-16″.

Backcountry Obs.

It was a cold, windy morning on Incline Peak. Light, Utah-like powder greeted me as I descended to the meadow from the trailhead. In the trees and down low, some light wind affect on the snow surface added some visual delight to the newly refreshed winter landscape, but little else to disturb the fluffy goodness underfoot.

Climbing the peak, northerly breezes stiffened moving snow through the trees on the N side of the mountain, but did not appreciably degrade the powder. As the trees thinned within a couple hundred feet of the summit, I noted wind scouring, soft sastrugi and significant wind transport of snow from N aspects to S and SE aspects. Coverage has continued to improve, but the ultra light snow from this last storm has done little to fully bury the larger rocks and logs.

Our crew did note one whumph in the skin track as it descended a compression near a large fallen tree. Off the skinner, a density change was apparent in the new storm snow. On my first drop, I ski cut a leeward loading convexity and did trigger a fracture, but it only propagated along the feature.

The skiing is excellent today. Light, dry powder below the near treeline zones makes for big smiles floating through the trees and hopping over granite boulders fat and fluffy with new snow.

A few sharks still lurk beneath the surface. Tips up!

Storm Post Mortem and Forecast Thoughts:

The storm came and delivered as advertised. Snow began around 10am yesterday in Carnelian with strong SW winds. Temps were in the low 30’s, then crashed as the snow moved in and saturated the airmass, remaining in the 22-23 deg. range during the rest of the event. As evening fell snowfall rates began to ebb and flow as the main body of the storm moved to our south. By 8pm, skies cleared and only a few flurries remained. 10.5″ had fallen.

Many of us up here are taking a collective sigh of relief to have gotten a decent snowfall, finally. Personally, living with the omnipresent specter of climate change, it feels like each winter could be the last. The warm December storms felt unsettling and I began to wonder, “will we ever be able to get a cold storm this season? Or is it just too warm?”

The snow has come and I’m reminded: Never waste a powder day.

Looking ahead, the week starts out quite cold with highs reaching the low to mid 30’s through Tues, when a small disturbance might deliver a dusting to a few inches on the crest. Weds.-Thurs., a storm similar to this last one (cold and quick), might drop 6-12″ around the area, mainly on Weds. afternoon into evening. A nice addition, but again nothing game changing in terms of opening more terrain. No base to start out really keeps only the highest zones in play until more substantial snows fall.

The pattern looks to stay cold and unsettled for the end of the week with hints of a bigger storm next weekend. The Euro is more aggressive with this system than the GFS today, so confidence remains low. Beyond 7 days the models are still struggling, so it’s anyone’s guess. I remain hopeful.

For now, it’s time to ski. Finally.

4:15am temp at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 28.1 deg. Trace new snow.

5:30am temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry Obs.:

It was a cold and windy morning in the Mt. Rose backcountry today. Strong NE winds were moving lots of snow from the trailhead to the summit. At dawn along the higher ridges huge plumes of snow were being tossed onto SW aspects as the NE winds stripped any loose snow from windward exposed bowls and faces. Those denuded aspects will have a firm bed surface upon which the snow from the incoming storm will need to bond. Snow loading on other lee aspects likely poses some risk of wind slab development today.

Skiing in the trees was still cold and soft, despite the wind and occasional buffed texture. Good fun out there!

Forecast Thoughts:

The forecast for the biggest and coldest storm of the season to date is still holding. Snow moves in tomorrow am, peaks during the afternoon/evening, and then will taper to showers in the lingering cold, unstable airmass. North winds behind the system along with relatively warm waters could fire some lake effect snow bands on the south shore. Those are always fun to see. I think 1-2 feet is a safe bet depending on elevation and location.

We get a break early next week before more cold systems potentially affect the area mid/late week.