Tahoe Backcountry Snow

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.3 deg. and 89% RH

24 hr. new snow total: 9″

0530 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 1 deg.

Est. 24 hr. new snow 12-16″

Backcountry Obs.

It was crystalline and cold this morning in the Incline Peak backcountry. Beautiful cold, light, shin deep snow greeted us at the trailhead continuing all the way to treeline near the summit. Some density changes and layers in the new snow were noticeable breaking trail, but no whumphs or cracks appeared on our skin to the the peak. Near and above treeline there were some wind affected pillows, sastugi, and scouring, but nothing that sniffing around the corner couldn’t fix.

The skiing today was by far the best of the season. Today is the day you dream about in the fall and remember deep into next summer. The recent snow from 1/6 has consolidated a bit providing better coverage over the rocks and logs that lurked sneakily just beneath the surface last weekend. The added snow from yesterday’s storm provided cushioning between skier and stump/log/boulder. The result is a super-fun setup where one can point it top to bottom making fluffy, bottomless turns. Terrain features are mainly covered and soft, making for playful pops, jumps, and powder spraying turns. I gently grazed one boulder in a turn, but could care less. It’s just that good.

Powder days are unique and fleeting. Get it if you can.

Forecast Thoughts:

It’s tough to care about anything but the present when it’s this good. But more snow just means more fun. Another system comes into the region Fri. PM-Sat. PM and could deliver 1-2′ of new snow, mainly for the higher elevations above 7000′. This one is going to be warmer with snow levels likely at or slightly above lake level beginning on Saturday, but starting out as snow on Fri. night. NWS Reno has issued a winter storm watch for the region. The GFS has come into line this morning with what the Euro was showing for much of the week: the center of low pressure developing further south near the central/southern Oregon coast.

This brings in a juicier storm with a deeper moisture plume for the Tahoe Sierra rather than a glancing blow. The onset of the storm is 36 hours out and forecast confidence remains moderate while model agreement is just now beginning to fall in line. This leads me to think that this one could surprise us either way. The record warm waters currently in the Eastern Pacific tend to add favor to higher snow levels, but also a wetter system.

My thinking is that lake level will see a soppy few inches with rain mixing in on Saturday PM. Above 7000′, this will most likely fall entirely as dense Sierra cement. The snow won’t be blower powder, but additional coverage and resource rich snow is good for everyone, on mountain and off.

The weekend storm will clear out on Saturday night and early Sunday leaving the remaining two days of the holiday weekend sunny and seasonable, but not frigid like today. Expect highs flirting with 40 near lake level, cooler in the mountains. Lows will dip well below freezing everywhere.

Next week looks like a toss up between completely dry and mild or a mild and weak disturbance arriving midweek. All the more reason to get out now and enjoy the beautiful powder day.

0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 26.1 deg. & 89% RH / .5″ new snow

No obs. from the backcountry today as the next storm affects the region.

Forecast Thoughts:

NWS Reno is more bullish with the snow totals for the incoming storm with a solid 1-2′ for the Tahoe Basin.

It’s been snowing lightly since last night and this morning has begun to pick up in intensity with short waves ahead of the main system. The bulk of the energy looks to arrive late morning and into the afternoon and evening. This is perfect timing for the storm to get an extra boost from afternoon convective energy. Hopefully we can get some intense snow bands setting up with snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour later today.

Although this system has some similarity’s to the 1/6 event, every storm is unique. Today’s storm is coming in a bit warmer, so expect the snow character, especially below 7000′ to be a bit denser. This is good news for adding a base to the backcountry snow pack and hopefully making more zones accessible. A solid base also adds resilience to the snow pack in the event of a prolonged warm/dry spell later this winter.

The system showing up for Sat/Sun is still looking likely, but it doesn’t look to be major by any stretch. Models are still mixed on whether the bulk of the energy will come into the PacNW or a bit further south towards the northern Sierra. Either way, this one will favor areas to the north with the eastern Sierra south of Tahoe largely missing out. There will also be more warmth with this system as snow levels look to begin tickling lake level, 6229′.

Quieter weather and a slow moderating trend follow the weekend system. Looking at models out in the Pacific, the storm door doesn’t appear to be closing, but discerning any specifics on storms, timing, and their flavor for the next week and beyond is next to impossible. Just gotta wait and see, and ski the new snow falling today.

0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.6 deg. / No new snow.

0530 temp. at 8600′ Tamarack TH: 24 deg. / No new snow.

Backcountry Obs.

I woke up to some lenticulars mixed with starry skies this morning, but this quickly turned into fog and intense WNW winds in the backcountry. Skinning up from the Tamarack TH, WNW gusts raked the ridge connecting E and W Galena Peaks with a deafening roar. Occasional gusts made it down to my level kicking up spin drifts and blowing snow, but nothing strong enough to turn me around.

Snow surface in the trees was textured, but still soft and becoming more consolidated since the 1/6 storm. As I climbed towards treeline and the summit of Tamarack, winds increased and their effects on the snow surface did too. Consistent buffed powder turned into wind board, drummy wind pillows and even some exposed crust. Plenty of snow was available for transport being deposited in lee E-SE aspects.

The skiing this morning is varied with assorted cold wind affected surfaces. As such, each turn offered something different for the whole family: crust, soft buff, scratchy cold board, textured soft powder, you name it! Other than the obvious wind loading, I noted no other obvious signs of instability.

Forecast Thoughts:

Today will be a bit milder than the past few days with highs in the 30’s under a mix of clouds, sun, and snow showers. Not much accumulation is expected with highest amounts along the crest.

NWS Reno hoisted a winter storm warning for the Wednesday storm and has trended up a bit in the snow forecast: 8-14″ around the lake with 1-2′ above 7000′. Like the 1/6 event, this one looks to come in as a NW slider complete with intense prefrontal winds and a quick, cold shot of snow starting Wednesday morning and tapering off in the evening. Snowfall rates of 1-3″ per hour during the main event appear likely. Highs tomorrow will be lucky to hit 30 in Tahoe communities, while the mountains will stay nice and cold as the snow dumps.

The outlook for the weekend and beyond continues to confound. The GFS shows a milder storm gracing our area with a glancing blow. The Euro favors a more significant storm, but also a bit warmer than the sliders we’ve experienced recently. The issue at play is the placement of the low pressure associated with the storm: the GFS brings the low in near the Puget Sound, while the Euro brings it in near the CA/OR border. The other global forecasting models are equally split between the two solutions. Only time will tell which flavor of weather we’ll have over MLK weekend. We’re going to get something, just how big and how warm is the kicker.

Beyond next weekend is even more uncertain. The latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks published yesterday. Both indicated greater chances of above average precip. and above average temps. The deterministic models are all over the place, changing with each run. All the uncertainty definitely makes looking ahead and trying to decipher what’s to come more exciting.

For now though, the snow will only get better from tomorrow through the rest of the work week. Best get out there and enjoy while it’s here.