Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Closing out 2024 with showers and warmth.

December 26th, 2024
0400 conditions at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 33.1 deg w/ 83% RH. Light flurries and no accumulation

0530 conditions at 8650’ in Mt. Rose backcountry: 25 deg mod snow. Gusty winds. 1-2″ new snow overnight.

0630 conditions at 9800′ in Mt. Rose backcountry: 22.9 deg with fog and moderate snow

Backcountry obs:

Conditions have vastly improved since 12/23 with the Christmas Eve storm bringing anywhere from 6-8″ of new snow atop the 12/23 rain crust. Gusty winds, moderate snow and low visibility greeted the dawn of Boxing Day 2024. The winds and new snow have reset most surfaces in the backcountry with only wind-scoured areas hosting firm surfaces.

Most areas below treeline hold a soft, yet thick and grabby 6-8″ of fresh snow sitting atop the 12/23 rain crust. However, the top 1-2″ of new snow is noticeably denser and of higher water content. This layer has been compressed by the wind and forms a grabby, hollow wind board resting atop the softer Christmas Eve snow.

The result is soft new snow and breakable windboard that skis sluggishly. Warm snow wax on the sticks, an assertive pop to your turn, and a steeper line will all help add giggle to today’s descents, and those of the next few days as conditions don’t look get substantially colder anytime soon.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

A procession of mild, mediocre storms off the Pacific continues to line up to greet the Tahoe Sierra today through the coming weekend. While each system will yield modest rain/snow amounts to the snowpack, gains will mainly be confined to zones above 8000′ as the storms trend progressively warmer through the coming weekend and into the final days of 2024. Models show two main pulses of energy late Thurs – Fri (12/26-27), and then again on Sun – Mon AM(12/29-30). Next week looks mainly quiet with sunny skies returning and average to slightly above average temperatures.

Today started out with light snow and gusty winds around daybreak that lazily transitioned to snain (snow/rain) around 10am at lake level. Light to moderate snow and strong winds blasted the backcountry with vigor above 8000′ this morning, and will continue through much of today as a moist, zonal flow off the Pacific directs mild moisture into the Tahoe Sierra. Much of the same is in store for tonight and tomorrow with a peak in rain/snow amounts late tonight, before backing off to more showery weather Fri night into Sat.

Highs today (12/26) will be in the mid-upper 30s around the lake and mid 20s to lower 30s in the backcountry above 7500′. Tonight temps will cool by only a few degrees in all areas, then begin a slow climb upward Fri through Sun as snow levels climb to upwards of 9000′ by Sun (12/29).

Up to .75″+ of rain is expected over the next 24-36 hrs around town, translating to 6-8″ of dense, new snow above 8000′. Showers could produce another .10-.25″ or liquid Sat – Sat PM before the next storm approaches the area on Sun.

Sunday’s storm appears to be the most robust of the series bringing a period of very strong SW winds early Sun, followed by a prolonged burst of high elevation snow and rain throughout the day. Snow levels will start out tickling 9000′, before falling below 6000′ by the storm’s end late Sun night/early Mon morning (12/30). Elevation will be the name of the game with this storm as appreciable snow accumulation looks unlikely below 7000′.

Long range models suggest a calmer pattern for the first week of 2025 with few storms (if any) slightly above average temps.
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Rain on snow; warm active pattern continues

December 22nd, 2024
0415 conditions at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 35.8 degrees. 0.15″ rain in the past 24 hrs

0530 conditions at 8650’: Moderate snow, 31 deg. Trace to 1-2” new snow

Backcountry obs:

Warm air has overtaken the backcountry, pushing snow levels above all passes and even most summits in Tahoe. Snow levels over the past 24 hours reached at least 9600’ as evidenced by a rain crust and saturated soft snow from trailhead to summit. Temps returned below freezing overnight (12/22) and falling snow levels have left 1-2″ of creamy, windblown new snow that just barely covers the newly formed crusts.

Still skis great! Well, not really. Hoppy, committed turns help ward off the edge-grabbing, crust demons, pulling at your skis with each turn, especially at lower elevations where the crust and snow are heavy and saturated. It’s time to patiently await the return of frozen snow, even above 8000′.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The active pattern that kicked off with yesterday’s storm will continue for the foreseeable future through the end of 2024. However, most models show the incoming storms as mild at best, and warm at worst, with a few looking to bring more balmy air to all elevations throughout the Tahoe backcountry. The best chance for new snow comes Christmas Eve and Boxing Day (12/26) before warm storms return late in the week.

The rest of today (12/22) a mix of clouds, sun and a few scattered showers, mainly confined to the Sierra crest, will grace the region. Tonight temps will struggle to drop below freezing in all areas below 8000′ in the warm, soggy, saturated airmass.

Monday will be another warm day with highs in the mid 40s around town, middle to upper 30s in the backcountry, under a mix of clouds and sun.

Monday night SW winds and precip will increase with the arrival of a more potent storm. Snow levels will yet again start high (8500-9000′) in the overnight hours, before dropping throughout the day on Tues, Christmas Eve. Lows on Mon night will be in the mid-upper 30s around the lake, lower to mid 30s on the mountains.

Moderate to heavy rain and snow will impact Tahoe throughout the day on Christmas Eve before precip. winds down just after nightfall. Temps will fall throughout the day with rain changing to snow at all elevations by early afternoon. At storm’s end, snow levels look to bottom out below 6000′ bringing light, festive accumulations to Tahoe communities, with substantially more snow higher on the mountains. Lows on Christmas Eve will reach the teens to lower 20s.

Snowfall totals are highly dependent upon how fast cold air arrives with the bulk of precipitation throughout the day on Christmas Eve. Current projections show up to a foot+ falling above 8000′ along the crest, with areas in the Mt. Rose backcountry receiving 8-12″ by daybreak on Christmas morning. 1-4″ can be expected in mountain communities near 6000′.

Christmas day will be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with highs in the 30s between 6000-7500′, 20s in mountains above 7500′.

Christmas night, another storm approaches the area in the wee hours bringing more snow throughout the day on Thurs (12/26), continuing into Thurs night and Fri. Current projections show the storm starting cold with snow for all elevations, before a warmer airmass intrudes on Friday, marching snow levels back up to over 8000′.

Looking into next weekend, the warm air looks to hold strong as models indicate the possibility of a few more warm storms bringing more rain than snow.
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Variable snow with warm and showery pattern on the way

December 20th, 2024
0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 31.1 deg. w/ 99% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ in Mt. Rose backcountry: 39 deg.

Backcountry obs:

Above 8500′, the Mt. Rose backcountry is a mix of breakable crust and old, warm powder, heavily tracked out.

Temps on the Slide Mt. sensor have held well above freezing for the past few days (30s to low 40s), yet with low humidity. I got out this morning to see how things are holding up through the warm spell and whether any cold snow is hanging on. It is, if only in pockets.

From the TH, there is still soft snow in tree shadows and in shaded, N and NE aspects. However, anywhere that receives sun exposure, even at the winter solstice, has a healthy, breakable crust. Higher up near and above treeline, N facing zones now host edgeable wind pillows along ridges and exposed faces, especially on spines and convexities.

Coverage remains at low tide, but is still good. Most rocks and branches are covered, but a few sharks and bare dirt spots still remain, especially in areas prone to channeling wind.

The variable conditions make for good training, and that’s how the backcountry skied this morning. Edgeable windboard, thick pow, and breakable crust demanded attention from mind and body. Moments of soft turning bliss could quickly turn into spicy crust management, then back to sneaky pow all within a few turns. Conditions aren’t great, but they’re still worthwhile and fun.

Weather/forecast thoughts:

Today should be the last day of stagnant air, low clouds, and inversions for the lower elevations as a series of storms begins affecting the region late tonight and into tomorrow (12/21) with high winds and showers. The unsettled pattern will take effect tomorrow and last through Christmas week as a procession of mild AR-fueled storms impacts the Tahoe Sierra.

The first system in the series will have its aim on southern Oregon and extreme northern CA. As such, Tahoe will remain on the warmer side of the storm with occasional showers around the lake and higher elevation intermittent snow starting between 7000-8000′. Accumulating snow will be confined to higher zones above 8000′ with only a few dense inches expected. The greatest impact from the Sat system will likely be high SW winds that could gust well in excess of hurricane force (75mph +) along ridgelines late Fri night and Sat.

Temps in the backcountry will be in the low to mid 30s on Sat with lows in the 20s and 30s. on Sat night. Around town expect low 40s on Sat with lows only at or just above freezing by Sun morning.

Spotty showers could linger Sun and into Mon with warm temps and high snow levels making for soppy snow below under a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

The next significant system looks to arrive on Christmas Eve. Models have been trimming precip. amounts back over the past day, but a moderate storm can still be expected Mon night – Christmas morning (12/23-12/25). The system will have a good fetch of subtropical moisture starting warm and ending cool. Snow levels around 8500-9000′ at the onset will drop throughout the day on Christmas Eve before bottoming out below 6000′ in the wee hours of Christmas morning as precip ends. A fresh white Christmas looks like a decent bet with maybe 1’+ above 8000′, while lower elevations could receive a few festive inches.

Beyond Christmas, models suggest that mild storms could keep rolling in.
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Closing out 2024 with showers and warmth.

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Rain on snow; warm active pattern continues

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Variable snow with warm and showery pattern on the way

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