Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry surprises & AR bluster, but more chances for meaningful snow this weekend

November 22nd, 2024
0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 46.4 deg. w/ 67% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 36 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Warm temps and blustery winds greeted me in the Mt. Rose area early this morning. Winds shook my parked car as I took a few extra sips of coffee, psyching myself up to head out into the loud, dark forest before dawn.

Touring between 8650′-9200′ in mostly sheltered, forested terrain, I was surprised to find between 6-14″ of snow. Strong winds raked the snow surface, skittering all types of pine matter across the surface. On the plus side, the wind had distributed snow in and around features, maximizing coverage. Nature’s snowcat, as I call it. In sheltered areas, cold snow reigned, whereas more wind exposed areas had some light, but breakable surface crusts. The wind and warmer temps added some density to the early snowpack giving it a thick pow feeling underfoot. Numerous rocks, stumps, twigs, wildflower stalks, and sage thickets still protrude or lurk just beneath the surface. Skinable, but not rip-able if you value your gear and joints.

Digging a few handpits showed a layered snowpack with 2-3 noticeable crusts and density changes. The thickest crust sits just 2-3″ above the ground with loose facets occupying the space beneath it to the ground. This potential weak layer could be from the first few storms in late Oct/early Nov.

If the coming storms deliver this weekend, it might be game on…

Weather/Forecast thoughts:

The noteworthy AR affecting NorCal since late Tues (11/19) has largely missed Tahoe, despite setting 1 day all time rainfall records for areas in Sonoma County. A round of snow and rain affected N. Lake Tahoe, around nightfall on Weds, changing over to rain late in the overnight, but not before dropping a sloppy inch of snow. My weather station recorded .24″ of liquid by Thurs. AM (11/21). Since then, strong SW winds and cool clouds have been the main headline.

Beginning this afternoon, the AR will begin drifting south, taking aim on Tahoe before passing to the south and east late Sat. Heavy rain and snow should begin this afternoon and last through midday Saturday, turning more showery in nature Sat. PM. Snow levels will begin quite high (7500-8000′) before wandering down to lake level and below on Sat. AM. A foot or more is possible in the backcountry, especially above 8000′, with higher amounts on the western side of the basin and along the crest.

A reprieve is in store for Sat. night and most of Sun. Temps will remain chilly with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs not breaking freezing in the backcountry above 7000-8000′, while Tahoe communities climb into the mid 30s. A few stray snow showers will likely pass through with a few hanging up on the surrounding peaks adding light accumulations to whatever falls Fri. PM and Sat. Expect breezy SW winds to persist.

Late Sun. into Mon. another system arrives with the potential for more significant snow (1-2′) in the mountains with moderate amounts (2-6″) around the lake. This system will have colder air in place when it arrives, so snow levels should start around lake level, then wobble around 6000-7000′ on Mon. afternoon, before falling back below lake level for Mon. night and Tues.

With some luck, touring season may be just a few days out.
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Robust AR inbound

November 19th, 2024
0515 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 19.9 deg. w/ 84% RH

Backcountry Obs.:

I took a quick dawn patrol tour in the Tahoe Meadows – Relay Peak area on Sun., 11/17 between 8800-9200′ and noted around 2-6″ of snow cover. Snow was cold, but turning warm and gloppy as temps climbed above freezing, even in the predawn hours. Occasional spritzes of rain even showered down as I skinned through dense fog and moderate SW winds.

A weak, yet cold, storm passed through on Sun night into Mon (11/18) dropping a trace of snow at lake level and 1-2″ above 7k. An attendant cold front left midwinter temps in its wake.

Forecast thoughts:

Late last week, most models indicated a dry, calm pattern for this week. But oh have the tables turned!

Very wet and unsettled weather looks to arrive late tonight (11/19) and last until the weekend–and maybe beyond!–as an AR takes aim on NorCal, bringing multiple waves of heavy rain and snow to Tahoe. Models are in good agreement that the flow of moisture will set up over NorCal, mainly from Tahoe north to southern Oregon, stall there through the remainder of the work week, then drift south.

The cuprit? A deep, rapidly strengthening low off the PacNW coast that will steer an intense upper level jet right over NorCal and southern Oregon.

Snow levels will start low tonight in the antecedent cold airmass left in the wake of the Sun-Mon system, then rise with the arrival of a subtropical moisture flow off the Pacific. Light accumulations could fall around the lake tonight, before turning to rain until the weekend as snow levels rise to 8500′-9000′ by Wednesday through the end of the work week. As the AR begins to push south, so too will colder air, bringing snow levels back down into the backcountry for the weekend.

While this storm will bring mainly rain to Tahoe, the mountains could receive a foot or more of dense, heavy, Sierra cement before everything wraps up late next weekend or early next week. And while snow is always preferable to rain, the high snow levels and heavy rain may melt any existing snow below 9000′ and/or saturate whatever remains before the changeover back to snow.

For the backcountry, this could end up being a big positive as it would destroy any weak, faceted old snow that may be lingering in the coldest nooks and crannies, replacing it with a solid base of dense Sierra cement.

At this point, the snow portion of this event is still a long way out. And just as the forecast changed from tranquil to stormy, big changes could sneak in between now and the weekend. Either way, buckle up — and quietly get your gear ready — winter might be just around the corner.
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An inch here, a few inches there

November 14th, 2024
0400 temp at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.2 deg.

0530 temp at 8565’ at Tahoe Meadows: 28 deg.

New snow: 1-2″ new snow

Backcountry obs:

A quick jaunt up Incline Lake Peak in the Mt. Rose area this morning revealed very light amounts of new snow from the previous two impulses this week. 1-2″ of new snow had fallen around Tahoe Meadows while forested N aspects above 9000′ held up to 4″ atop dry, dusty ground. Near treeline terrain and shaded N and NE forested aspects above 9200′ host a contiguous 4-8″ shallow snowpack with old crusty layers from early Nov. storms beneath. Other aspects more exposed to wind and sun have nary a dusting to an inch of recent snow cover.

Any recreating on snow in this area remains confined to dirt roads.

Weather/forecast thoughts:

The weak, unsettled pattern forecast for this week has largely played out: an inch here, an inch there with each system. Greater amounts have fallen across the W portion of the Tahoe Basin and along the Sierra Crest. High SW winds winds have presaged each system creating big lake waves and spectacular sunrise lenticular and Sierra wave cloud shows.

Today (11/14) another slightly more potent system will approach Tahoe with increasing winds and cool temps in the upper 30s to low 40s below 7000′. Snow showers may affect the region throughout the day, especially along the crest, steadily advancing further E across the basin throughout the afternoon.

Tonight temps fall behind a cold front allowing for snow levels to drop below 6000′ as bands of snow showers organize and increase in intensity throughout the overnight hours and into Fri. Temps around the lake will just barely break freezing tomorrow as widespread snowfall starts the day and tapers by evening. In total, another 2-5″ could fall for Basin communities while backcountry zones have a decent chance of receiving 4-8″ of fresh snow. Higher amounts could pan out near the crest, with some favored zones possibly seeing up to a foot.

Saturday a transient ridge of high pressure will bring sunny skies and cool temps in the 30s and 40s. Another modest system could bring another few inches to the backcountry Sun. and Mon. before a less active pattern takes over for remainder of next week.
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Backcountry surprises & AR bluster, but more chances for meaningful snow this weekend

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Robust AR inbound

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An inch here, a few inches there

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