0700 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 25.2 °/ 20.3° dew point / 82% RH / Mostly clear skies / trace new snow

Backcountry obs.:

The recent return to cold and unsettled weather has brought a few inches of new snow to backcountry locations, buffing out surfaces and improving skiing. New snow amounts have been very localized, but areas along the crest picked up between 3-6″ since the pattern change on Thurs (3/27), with lesser amounts in the Mt. Rose area.

Touring in the Mt. Rose backcountry on Fri (3/28), revealed a refrozen spring snowpack with 1-3″ of freshly fallen, cold snow. The new snow smoothed out crusty imperfections, creating dust on crust conditions. Pockets of soft, smooth skiing are available to the most perceptible skiers who sniff out wind deposits in lee areas.

In wind scoured areas, recent cold temps and wind have refrozen the base, into a stiff, yet brittle and edgeable surface. Refrozen crusts should soften this afternoon on southerly aspects providing buttery spring skiing.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The Tahoe Sierra is currently locked into a cold, unsettled, spring pattern bringing periods of snow and wind, cool temps — and even breaks of brilliant sunshine — lasting well into the first week of April. By the middle of next week, new snow accumulations of 1-2+ are likely throughout the Tahoe backcountry.

The remainder of this afternoon will feature mostly sunny skies with calm to light SW winds and highs reaching the upper 20s to low 30s above 7000′. Shady aspects should still hold soft snow, while southernmost exposures should soften providing good spring skiing. Any breezes that do develop will likely keep crusts hard and frozen.

The next wave of snow moves into the area tomorrow morning (3/30) as a trough of low pressure settles in off the PacNW coast, sending a couple of cool disturbances into the Sierra Sun – Tues (3/30 – 4/1). Increasing SW winds, and a return of widespread snow showers will announce the storm’s arrival. By late afternoon tomorrow, expect on and off snow showers, possibly mixing with rain at lower elevations, and blustery conditions across the mountains. Highs tomorrow will top out in the low to mid 30s across the backcountry.

Snow showers and cold temps will continue Sunday night with an additional 3-6″ possible. Lows Sun night will bottom out in the mid-upper 20s.

Monday (3/31), a more substantial wave of instability moves in, creating heavier and more persistent snow showers throughout the day. Some snow showers may be particularly heavy in the afternoon as convective energy lends an additional kick to atmospheric instability. Snowfall rates could reach 2″ per hour in localized zones, especially over higher terrain. Temps on Mon will remain cool and below freezing above 7000′. By nightfall, another 8-14″ of new snow will likely have fallen across the backcountry.

Mon night accumulating snow showers continue across the Sierra with cold overnight low temps in the 10s and low 20s. Another 3-6″ of cold, fresh snow could continue falling during the overnight hours.

April kicks off on Tues (4/1) with another impulse keeping snow showers firing throughout the day and into the afternoon with moderate accumulations likely. Highs on Tues will remain cold, allowing new snow to continue piling up, before tapering off during the overnight Tues/Weds.

By Weds morning (4/2) the backcountry will likely have received between 1-2’+ of new snow since Sunday. A solid reset, indeed.

The second half of the coming week looks to remain cool and slightly below average, but with lesser chances of accumulating snow. The long wave trough responsible for the coming storm will linger over the Sierra and Great Basin, promoting cold temps, clouds, and daily chances of snow showers across the mountains.