0430 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 35.4° / 30.4° dew point / 82% RH / light snow showers (graupel) / WNW winds at 3mph

0530 wx. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 25° / periods of light-moderate snow showers (graupel) / blustery WSW winds

0630 wx. at 9515′ in Mt. Rose backcountry: 23.1° / 23.1° dew point / 100% RH / light to moderate snow showers (graupel) and passing dense fog / blustery SW-NW winds at 12mph, gusting to 16mph

Backcountry obs.:

This morning the backcountry was cold, blustery, with passing graupel showers throughout the predawn hours as the first in a series of storms moves into the Sierra. Conditions throughout today should deteriorate as the storm arrives, accompanied by strong winds and increasing snowfall rates.

Light to moderate snow showers of graupel and ice pellets had only accumulated to trace amounts by daybreak, much of which blew erratically across the snow with each passing wind gust. Snow surfaces varied with a mix of breakable and supportable crusts on all but the most protected aspects. On N and protected NE terrain, cold, soft, moderately dense snow remains.

The new snow is sorely needed: popular backcountry routes have been heavily masticated by recent powder-starved crowds.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

As noted in the backcountry this morning, the next winter storm is already settling in with preliminary bands of snow showers and high winds impacting the backcountry. Snow will increase in intensity this afternoon, peaking this evening through the early morning hours tomorrow (3/13).

Highs today will flirt with freezing around 7000′, then quickly drop this afternoon with the onset of the most intense snowfall. Around lake level, rain mixing in with snow isn’t out of the question around midday/early afternoon, before transitioning to heavy snowfall this evening and overnight tonight. The warm start and cool progression during the storm should produce a generally right-side up snow structure.

Tomorrow will be cold and unsettled with additional convective snow showers adding a few more inches to the bulk of the snowfall that falls today and tonight. By tomorrow evening, 1.5-2′ of new snow can be expected around the Tahoe backcountry above 7000′, with up to 3’+ along the crest. Down at lake level, 8-16″ is likely with the highest amounts on the west shore and along highway 89.

Highs tomorrow above 7000′ will remain in the 20s with temps. at or just below freezing at lake level.

Friday (3/14), another weaker system will bring more snow to the area throughout the day. Temps will remain cold, keeping snow levels below 6000′. Anywhere from 4-8″ of new fresh is likely to keep the party going by Sat AM (3/15).

We’ll have a break on Sat and most of Sun (3/15-16) with moderating temps. and partly sunny skies. A few lingering snow showers are likely, especially in the afternoon Sat. as a cold, unstable air mass remains in place over the Sierra. Highs Sat will stay in the 20s and low 30s for the backcountry.

Sun (3/16) will start out mostly clear and cold, before temps moderate a few more degrees over Saturday’s highs into the middle to upper 30s above 7000′. High clouds and increasing ridgetop winds should arrive into the area later in the day, heralding the arrival of the next storm for the first part of the coming week.

Current model projections show the Mon (3/17) storm bringing another round of heavy snow to the area, lasting into the wee hours of Tues AM (3/18). This one could be a little warmer with snow levels starting out between 6500-7000′.

The remainder of next week continues to look cool and unsettled with another weaker system possible around Thurs (3/20).

Bring it!