0500 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 33.1° / 22.6° dew point / mostly clear skies / calm winds

Backcountry conditions:

Snow in the Rose backcountry over the past week has been largely stable and spring-like. Cold mornings have refrozen snow surfaces into hard melt-freeze crusts that soften each morning and early afternoon under warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

Nights have been largely clear and dry, promoting efficient cooling and below freezing temps on snow surfaces. On Thurs. morning (2/27) at 0630, I observed air temps at 1.5m above the surface at 34.5° on the summit of Tamarack Peak, while temps on the snow surface registered 24°. The dry airmass and evaporational cooling, along with clear skies, helped keep snow frozen even in above freezing temps!

As previously noted, timing and aspect selection are key to finding the perfect snow softness in this spring regime: too early and snow is hard and chattery, too late and it’s all mush and sweaty mashed potatoes.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Change is a’comin! Spring will hold out today and tomorrow (2/28-3/1) with mostly sunny skies and warm afternoon temps into the upper 40s to near 50 throughout the Tahoe backcountry. Overnight Sat. and into Sun., a modest, yet cold storm will move into the area bringing a quick hit of snow to the area, likely refreshing backcountry surfaces with cold, soft powder.

Timing for the Sun. storm has recently pushed back a bit, with the most impactful snowfall rates coming throughout the day on Sun., tapering off in the evening. Current models show the storm favoring areas along the crest from Tahoe southward. Expect anywhere from 2-8″ of new snow by Mon. morning (3/3), with highest amounts falling along the crest and south.

SW winds will increase as the storm moves in on Sat. night and early Sun., although they look fairly modest by Sierra standards.

By Mon. (3/3), the storm moves out leaving cooler temps., partly cloudy skies, and lingering snow showers in its wake. Expect highs above 7000′ in the 20s to low 30s for Mon. and Tues.

A more significant storm — yet still not a whopper by Sierra standards — looks likely for the middle of next week: Weds-Fri. (3/5-3/7). This one is again looking cold, bringing additional snow to all backcountry zones above 6000′. As of today, the mid-week storm looks to favor areas from Tahoe southward.

Luckily, the pattern looks cold and wet heading into the middle of March, with more opportunities for larger systems to impact the Sierra and boost snowpack. Current extended outlooks show high probabilities for above normal precip. and below normal temps.

Most years the Sierra crescendos throughout March and into early April. The best is still yet to come…

A note about NOAA and NWS:

Yesterday, hundreds of federal employees at NOAA and NWS were summarily fired by DOGE and the Trump administration. This first round of firings affected probationary and temporary employees, those who are either recent hires or recently promoted to senior level positions. The jobs lost affected people across the board, including data scientists, hydrologists, and shift meteorologists at local NWS offices. Fire weather forecasters and incident meteorologists were not spared either.

The losses and impacts on the public will be significant. Many of the lost positions are mission critical to protecting public safety and infrastructure around the country. The work of NOAA provides the backbone for our understanding of the climate: how to stay safe, prosper within it, and adapt to a changing future. Since their inception, these agencies have provided a critical public good enjoyed by all Americans.

More RIFs (parlance for ‘reduction in force’) are imminent across NOAA and NWS with public plans of nearly 60% of the total workforce being dismissed in the coming year. Yesterday was just the first round.

If you appreciate the work of NOAA and NWS and want to do something, please contact your respective member of Congress by phone and voice your opinion directly. Ask them to advocate for our local forecasters and public that benefit from their work.

In the Sierra, those representatives are Mark Amodei of NV (775-686-5760) and Kevin Kiley of CA (916-724-2575).

Thank you.