0400 wx. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 18.9 deg. / 15.8 deg. dew point / 88% / calm winds / partly cloudy skies

0515 wx. At 8460’ Rose backcountry trailhead: 15 deg. / low broken overcast / light winds / flurries

Backcountry obs.:

Early morning tours in the Rose area on Sun. (2/9) and Tues. (2/11) revealed a substantially improved snowpack above 8000’, with cold snow surfaces throughout all sheltered NW-N-NE-E aspects. Below average temps over the past few days have largely preserved cold, soft snow. Solar aspects are the exception where cold, brittle sun crusts can quickly interrupt fluffy turns, should an unsuspecting skier drift awry of shadier aspects. Some wind sculpting has increased snow density on near treeline terrain and created a firm, yet edgeable surfaces above treeline into the alpine.

Aside from resort like tracks covering the most popular zones, the snow skis as fast, fun pow with a supportable, springy-firm base underfoot. Steeper exposed terrain is firm, but edgeable. Soft protected nooks and crannies hold wind-deposited fluff.

Weather and forecast obs.:

Today will be the last day to enjoy the calm reprieve before another storm arrives with heavy snow to close out the work week. By nightfall Friday, an additional 2-4 feet of new snow could fall above 7000 ft from Tahoe south through the Eastern Sierra. Lesser amounts between 1-2′ are possible at lake level.

Today, expect mostly sunny skies with cold temps. Highs will stay in the 20s above 7000’. A N-NW flow will increase by the afternoon, bringing an increase in cloud cover and chances for light snow showers as a weak, precursor system begins approaching the area. Winds may also tick up this afternoon.

Tonight temps will plummet under mostly clear skies. Colder valleys could drop below zero, while most locations will bottom out in the single digits to low teens.

Tomorrow (2/12) clouds and winds increase with the arrival of the weak slider from the NW, bringing chances for light snow showers throughout the day. Accumulations will be minimal at best. Highs tomorrow will remain in the 20s above 7000’, with low to mid 30s between 6000-7000’.

The main event starts in earnest overnight Wednesday (2/12) as a potent storm begins assailing the Sierra with heavy snow and high winds. Models are in good agreement that this could be the most potent storm of the season to date. Snow should begin falling late night on Weds., and pick up in intensity through the morning Thurs. During peak intensity Thurs. through Thurs. evening, snowfall rates could reach a few inches per hour. The storm will go strong into the early hours of Fri. (2/14), before waning around daybreak and transitioning to convective snow showers for most of Friday. Friday’s showers will produce additional accumulations, especially in higher terrain. By Fri. evening, the storm moves out, leaving clearing skies and cool temps. in its wake.

One bit of uncertainty with the coming storm is just how high snow levels reach on Thurs. The moisture arriving on Weds. PM will encounter a cold airmass and snow levels will start out around 4500-5000′. However, snow levels may begin flirting with 6000′ Thurs. afternoon, before falling again in the evening for the remainder of the event. Rain mixing in at lake level is a very real possibility, yet again. At higher elevations, the intrusion of warm air into the system will likely create a noticeable density change within the storm snow: lighter density snow at the start, followed by a layer of denser snow, finished off with lighter density snow at storm’s end.

Partly sunny skies and a few stray snow showers are possible on Sat. (2/15), but with light accumulations, if any. Highs Sat. look relatively mild for a post storm airmass midwinter, reaching the upper 20s to low 30s above 7000′.

Another weak system could impact the area on Sun. and Mon. (2/16-17), but with most impacts from Tahoe north. Milder air will also filter in on Sun. and Mon. bringing temps near to slightly above freezing in the backcountry.

A pattern change looks likely for next week bringing mild temps and dry weather for the foreseeable future.

Let’s hope it’s a good one.