0400 wx at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 39.6 deg. /25 deg. dew point / 56% RH / overcast skies / 24hr. rainfall: .50″ / 2.76″ rainfall since Fri (1/31)

0515 wx. at 8650′ Mt. Rose backcountry TH: 29 deg. / SW winds ~ 10mph / overcast skies

Backcountry obs.:

The weekend storm produced, just not below 8000′. Snow levels started off around lake level on Fri (1/31), but rose above 9000′ on Sat. night (2/1) before settling around 8200′ for much of Sun. (2/2).

As a result, there’s little new accumulation below 8000′ in the Mt. Rose area, but the snow stacks up, especially at and above 8500′ where 1-2′ of new, ultra dense snow fell, recharging the snowpack. The new snow has been heavily groomed by strong winds creating a supportable, yet delightfully edgeable — and ripable — surface. 1-3″ of soft, unconsolidated surface snow exists in sheltered treed areas while a few isolated wind-exposed areas host a 1/4″ breakable rain crust.

The quantity and spackle-like quality of the snow has dramatically improved coverage and skier confidence. Gone are the days of fearing knee snapping snags and stumps lurking just beneath the surface. The tide has risen! Let the fast, fearless turns begin!

Forecast and weather thoughts:

While round 1 of the prolonged atmospheric river (AR) brought the warm and wet, and the next two waves look to bring equally intense precip. rates, but with the gift of progressively colder temps. Expect the next round of heavy snow to impact the backcountry Mon PM (2/3) into Weds AM (2/5). There will likely be a brief break Weds AM – Weds PM, before the coldest wave in the series brings heavy snow to all elevations in Tahoe starting overnight Weds/Thurs (2/5) and lasting through Fri AM (2/6).

By Fri evening, model ensembles show total snowfall amounts between 2-4′ above 7000′. Locally higher amounts are plausible near the crest and at higher elevations.

Today’s break in the rain and snow will quickly end this evening as a plume of AR moisture descends upon the central Sierra from the north. Snow levels will initially start around 6500′, then gradually rise up to or slightly above 7000′ by Tues morning. Rain and snow will fall in earnest on Tues as a surface low and powerful upper level jet accompany the moisture plume, providing strong atmospheric dynamics for enhanced precip. rates, especially along the crest. By Tues evening, colder air works into the system dropping snow levels down to lake level. As precip. winds down Weds AM, 1-3′ of new snow is likely above 7000′, while anywhere from 4-12″ could coat areas below 7000′. Lower elevation snow totals will be highly dependent upon how fast cold air phases into the storm.

The daylight hours of Weds (2/5) will provide a brief reprieve before the final — and coldest — round of the sequence arrives Weds evening. Models are in good agreement for another strong and dynamic system with a deeper source of cold air, creating heavy snow Weds PM through Fri AM (2/7).

It’s taken a while, but winter finally looks to be turning on.