0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.9 deg. w/ 88% RH

0530 temp. at 8650′ TH in Mt. Rose backcountry: 22 deg.

0630 temp. at 9000′: 27 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Backcountry conditions this week in the Mt. Rose area have improved slightly over last week, but remain uninspiring. Dry, cold air worked to degrade thin crusts in sheltered areas on NW-NE aspects over the past few days, making for decent skiing in these areas. Zones that receive weak and minimal sunlight still have soft snow, but the trick is finding untouched lanes to put down fresh turns.

Exposed zones near treeline and E-W aspects all still host a nasty breakable crust, thanks to the brief warmup on 1/10. Despite the cold and dry conditions, these crusts are just too thick to erode away. Above treeline hard sastrugi, windboard, and unbreakable crust welcome the skier willing to test their edges and agility. Whippets and ski crampons suggested for steeper, exposed pitches.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Dry January continues. No new precip. is in the forecast, nor on the horizon for the next week or more. Expect sunny skies and seasonably cool temps (low to mid 30s in the backcountry) for the foreseeable future. Occasionally a dry inside slider will pass to our east, cooling temps and increasing winds from the N and E for a few days. Expect a cool down of this order over the coming MLK weekend. The coldest day of the period will be Mon (1/20), with highs holding in the 20s, before temps moderate once again. Nights will be seasonably cold with periodic inversions in between pulses of cold air.

What gives? Persistent ridging in the jet stream over the eastern Pacific is locked in and reinforcing itself every few days. Disturbances encountering this feature ride up and over it in the eastern Pacific, before diving south through the eastern Great Basin. The resulting weather systems are moisture starved, yet cold, generally passing too far to our east to deliver anything more than cooler temps, increased NE winds, and maybe a few upslope clouds.

Long term model ensembles do show some modest wobble of the dominant ridge westward into the central Pacific the last few days of the month. However, signs of impactful storms reaching Tahoe around that time are currently nonexistent.

It’s a good time to test out the power of prayer.