0415 conditions at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 35.8 degrees. 0.15″ rain in the past 24 hrs

0530 conditions at 8650’: Moderate snow, 31 deg. Trace to 1-2” new snow

Backcountry obs:

Warm air has overtaken the backcountry, pushing snow levels above all passes and even most summits in Tahoe. Snow levels over the past 24 hours reached at least 9600’ as evidenced by a rain crust and saturated soft snow from trailhead to summit. Temps returned below freezing overnight (12/22) and falling snow levels have left 1-2″ of creamy, windblown new snow that just barely covers the newly formed crusts.

Still skis great! Well, not really. Hoppy, committed turns help ward off the edge-grabbing, crust demons, pulling at your skis with each turn, especially at lower elevations where the crust and snow are heavy and saturated. It’s time to patiently await the return of frozen snow, even above 8000′.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The active pattern that kicked off with yesterday’s storm will continue for the foreseeable future through the end of 2024. However, most models show the incoming storms as mild at best, and warm at worst, with a few looking to bring more balmy air to all elevations throughout the Tahoe backcountry. The best chance for new snow comes Christmas Eve and Boxing Day (12/26) before warm storms return late in the week.

The rest of today (12/22) a mix of clouds, sun and a few scattered showers, mainly confined to the Sierra crest, will grace the region. Tonight temps will struggle to drop below freezing in all areas below 8000′ in the warm, soggy, saturated airmass.

Monday will be another warm day with highs in the mid 40s around town, middle to upper 30s in the backcountry, under a mix of clouds and sun.

Monday night SW winds and precip will increase with the arrival of a more potent storm. Snow levels will yet again start high (8500-9000′) in the overnight hours, before dropping throughout the day on Tues, Christmas Eve. Lows on Mon night will be in the mid-upper 30s around the lake, lower to mid 30s on the mountains.

Moderate to heavy rain and snow will impact Tahoe throughout the day on Christmas Eve before precip. winds down just after nightfall. Temps will fall throughout the day with rain changing to snow at all elevations by early afternoon. At storm’s end, snow levels look to bottom out below 6000′ bringing light, festive accumulations to Tahoe communities, with substantially more snow higher on the mountains. Lows on Christmas Eve will reach the teens to lower 20s.

Snowfall totals are highly dependent upon how fast cold air arrives with the bulk of precipitation throughout the day on Christmas Eve. Current projections show up to a foot+ falling above 8000′ along the crest, with areas in the Mt. Rose backcountry receiving 8-12″ by daybreak on Christmas morning. 1-4″ can be expected in mountain communities near 6000′.

Christmas day will be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with highs in the 30s between 6000-7500′, 20s in mountains above 7500′.

Christmas night, another storm approaches the area in the wee hours bringing more snow throughout the day on Thurs (12/26), continuing into Thurs night and Fri. Current projections show the storm starting cold with snow for all elevations, before a warmer airmass intrudes on Friday, marching snow levels back up to over 8000′.

Looking into next weekend, the warm air looks to hold strong as models indicate the possibility of a few more warm storms bringing more rain than snow.