0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 31.1 deg. w/ 99% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ in Mt. Rose backcountry: 39 deg.

Backcountry obs:

Above 8500′, the Mt. Rose backcountry is a mix of breakable crust and old, warm powder, heavily tracked out.

Temps on the Slide Mt. sensor have held well above freezing for the past few days (30s to low 40s), yet with low humidity. I got out this morning to see how things are holding up through the warm spell and whether any cold snow is hanging on. It is, if only in pockets.

From the TH, there is still soft snow in tree shadows and in shaded, N and NE aspects. However, anywhere that receives sun exposure, even at the winter solstice, has a healthy, breakable crust. Higher up near and above treeline, N facing zones now host edgeable wind pillows along ridges and exposed faces, especially on spines and convexities.

Coverage remains at low tide, but is still good. Most rocks and branches are covered, but a few sharks and bare dirt spots still remain, especially in areas prone to channeling wind.

The variable conditions make for good training, and that’s how the backcountry skied this morning. Edgeable windboard, thick pow, and breakable crust demanded attention from mind and body. Moments of soft turning bliss could quickly turn into spicy crust management, then back to sneaky pow all within a few turns. Conditions aren’t great, but they’re still worthwhile and fun.

Weather/forecast thoughts:

Today should be the last day of stagnant air, low clouds, and inversions for the lower elevations as a series of storms begins affecting the region late tonight and into tomorrow (12/21) with high winds and showers. The unsettled pattern will take effect tomorrow and last through Christmas week as a procession of mild AR-fueled storms impacts the Tahoe Sierra.

The first system in the series will have its aim on southern Oregon and extreme northern CA. As such, Tahoe will remain on the warmer side of the storm with occasional showers around the lake and higher elevation intermittent snow starting between 7000-8000′. Accumulating snow will be confined to higher zones above 8000′ with only a few dense inches expected. The greatest impact from the Sat system will likely be high SW winds that could gust well in excess of hurricane force (75mph +) along ridgelines late Fri night and Sat.

Temps in the backcountry will be in the low to mid 30s on Sat with lows in the 20s and 30s. on Sat night. Around town expect low 40s on Sat with lows only at or just above freezing by Sun morning.

Spotty showers could linger Sun and into Mon with warm temps and high snow levels making for soppy snow below under a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

The next significant system looks to arrive on Christmas Eve. Models have been trimming precip. amounts back over the past day, but a moderate storm can still be expected Mon night – Christmas morning (12/23-12/25). The system will have a good fetch of subtropical moisture starting warm and ending cool. Snow levels around 8500-9000′ at the onset will drop throughout the day on Christmas Eve before bottoming out below 6000′ in the wee hours of Christmas morning as precip ends. A fresh white Christmas looks like a decent bet with maybe 1’+ above 8000′, while lower elevations could receive a few festive inches.

Beyond Christmas, models suggest that mild storms could keep rolling in.