0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 46.4 deg. w/ 67% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 36 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Warm temps and blustery winds greeted me in the Mt. Rose area early this morning. Winds shook my parked car as I took a few extra sips of coffee, psyching myself up to head out into the loud, dark forest before dawn.

Touring between 8650′-9200′ in mostly sheltered, forested terrain, I was surprised to find between 6-14″ of snow. Strong winds raked the snow surface, skittering all types of pine matter across the surface. On the plus side, the wind had distributed snow in and around features, maximizing coverage. Nature’s snowcat, as I call it. In sheltered areas, cold snow reigned, whereas more wind exposed areas had some light, but breakable surface crusts. The wind and warmer temps added some density to the early snowpack giving it a thick pow feeling underfoot. Numerous rocks, stumps, twigs, wildflower stalks, and sage thickets still protrude or lurk just beneath the surface. Skinable, but not rip-able if you value your gear and joints.

Digging a few handpits showed a layered snowpack with 2-3 noticeable crusts and density changes. The thickest crust sits just 2-3″ above the ground with loose facets occupying the space beneath it to the ground. This potential weak layer could be from the first few storms in late Oct/early Nov.

If the coming storms deliver this weekend, it might be game on…

Weather/Forecast thoughts:

The noteworthy AR affecting NorCal since late Tues (11/19) has largely missed Tahoe, despite setting 1 day all time rainfall records for areas in Sonoma County. A round of snow and rain affected N. Lake Tahoe, around nightfall on Weds, changing over to rain late in the overnight, but not before dropping a sloppy inch of snow. My weather station recorded .24″ of liquid by Thurs. AM (11/21). Since then, strong SW winds and cool clouds have been the main headline.

Beginning this afternoon, the AR will begin drifting south, taking aim on Tahoe before passing to the south and east late Sat. Heavy rain and snow should begin this afternoon and last through midday Saturday, turning more showery in nature Sat. PM. Snow levels will begin quite high (7500-8000′) before wandering down to lake level and below on Sat. AM. A foot or more is possible in the backcountry, especially above 8000′, with higher amounts on the western side of the basin and along the crest.

A reprieve is in store for Sat. night and most of Sun. Temps will remain chilly with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs not breaking freezing in the backcountry above 7000-8000′, while Tahoe communities climb into the mid 30s. A few stray snow showers will likely pass through with a few hanging up on the surrounding peaks adding light accumulations to whatever falls Fri. PM and Sat. Expect breezy SW winds to persist.

Late Sun. into Mon. another system arrives with the potential for more significant snow (1-2′) in the mountains with moderate amounts (2-6″) around the lake. This system will have colder air in place when it arrives, so snow levels should start around lake level, then wobble around 6000-7000′ on Mon. afternoon, before falling back below lake level for Mon. night and Tues.

With some luck, touring season may be just a few days out.