0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.1 deg. & 86% RH

Backcountry obs.:

Yesterday morning I toured in the Tamarack backcountry and found widespread supportable spring snow that had received a solid refreeze overnight Tues. – Weds. Temps at the 8650′ TH registered 31 at the car.

Travel was quick and efficient on the firm surface. The surface had been textured by daily melt/freeze cycles making skins grip easily, even on fairly steep uphill runs. Supportable melt/freeze surfaces existed on nearly all aspects from 8650′ to 9200′ atop Galena Peak on all aspects except sheltered or steep N. slopes and gullies.

In those few exceptional areas, breakable transitional crust was abundant in N. facing trees, while soft, moderately dense, old powder existed in a sheltered, 45 deg. N facing chute.

Due to the early hour, the skiing was firm and fast, but likely warmed to buttery corn by 8-10am. If headed into terrain with any consequence, carry a whippet, especially in the morning.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

What looked like a calm, warm, spring pattern late last week is now, yet again getting interrupted by a cold, cut off low this weekend. This skier’s dreams of long, corn descents in a Hawaiian shirt have been shelved for the time being as showers and accumulating snows look likely in the mountains for the weekend.

Today is the last solid, warm spring day in the Sierra until early next week. Highs will get into the upper 50s to maybe 60 around the lake. Expect temps to be a few degrees cooler in the mountains, but on the snow it’ll feel plenty hot.

Tomorrow will be warm, but as the cutoff low from the N approaches, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will likely fire up with initially high snow levels, dropping through tomorrow evening and setting up camp some where in the 6000′ – 7000′ range. S and SW winds will pick up as the low approaches too.

Sat. looks to be the day with the greatest chance for meaningful precip as the low progresses down the CA coast and syncs with daytime warming instability. Areas west of the crest will receive the most snow – maybe up to 6″ or locally more – while Tahoe communities pick up a dusting to an inch or two Sat. pm into the overnight. Scattered showers and cool conditions will prevail into Sun. before tapering off Sun. night into Mon.

As is common in the Sierra in spring, showers and cloud cover will likely increase throughout the day both Sat. and Sun. as convective heating further destabilizes the atmosphere, enhancing showers. Rumbles of thunder and graupel/pellet showers are very possible too. Where the more intense showers set up, especially high in the backcountry, respectable amounts of snow could fall bringing totals up. This is a scenario where cold temps will solidify the corn surface in the backcountry and new snowfall could create a dust on crust, or with some luck, even a sneaky spring powder refresh for the highest elevations and N. facing aspects.

Winds will pick up with this system, making for less than pleasant spring travel through the backcountry. If enough snow falls, wind slabs on lee aspects will be suspect and merit caution.

By Mon., a few lingering showers could fire on the crest, but most areas will see a return to sunny skies and milder temps in the 40s and 50s. Looking into next week, no storms appear in the models just yet, but cooler temps and generally clear skies seem probable as a dominant trough of low pressure settles into the western third of the continent.

It’s not the weekend for Hawaiian shirts, but with some luck, another spring powder session could be in the cards.