0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.9 deg. & 88% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ at Tamarack TH: 22 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

I headed out today to see how the current sun angle is affecting the snow surface despite cold daytime temps yesterday. In general, any aspect that is open and not facing due N, now has some sort of solar crust, ranging from supportable – but barely edgeable – to breakable and able to quickly toss any backcountry traveler into dreaded combat skiing.

Cold powder is still tenuously holding on in N facing trees and in open bowls and chutes with a steep enough pitch to promote shade and weak sun angles on the snow surface. These zones are still offering delightful skiing.

As the sun rises higher in the sky with each passing day, terrain capable of preserving powder will become ever scanter. Looking ahead into the spring, the only way to score powder from future storms will be by beating the sun to the mountains. Or you could simply embrace the change of season and go for corn snow when temps warm up.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Cool and generally sunny conditions will persist today through much of the day Weds. with highs reaching the lower 40s in mountain communities. A stray snow shower in the afternoon can’t be ruled out later today.

Late in the day Weds. a cut-off low approaches the area from the NW that will deliver a refresh of a few inches to possibly a foot of new snow to the backcountry. Peak snowfall looks to come in on Weds. night lasting into the early morning hours of Thurs. Expect between 2-6″ of snow around the Tahoe Basin, with higher amounts above 7000′ and along the crest. Behind the system moist, unstable air will promote snow showers throughout the day on Thurs. and into Thurs. night with little to maybe a few extra inches accumulating in the backcountry.

Fri. yet another cut-off low approaches the area dropping down the Pacific coast from the N. Models continue to wobble on snow amounts and impacts for our region Fri. – Sat. PM as they struggle to get a handle on how the low will amble down the coast. Today’s runs show the low staying further offshore, keeping the heaviest precip. W. of the Sierra, most likely coming in on Fri. night in to Sat. AM. Tahoe will receive some flavor of snowfall during that time period, but the intensity is all dependent upon the track of the low pressure. A solid refresh in the mountains is probable, but whether that’s 4-6″ or 12″ above 7000′ is TBD. Stay tuned and optimistic…

Behind the early weekend system moist, unstable flow continues off the Pacific into Sun. keeping chances of afternoon showers in the forecast. Temps will moderate as well with highs reaching the mid 40s around the lake. Early next week a ridge of high pressure moves in clearing skies and warming temps a bit more.

The future holds ephemeral windows of great skiing. Get it while you can.