0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 31.7 deg. & 89% RH

Backcountry obs.:

No real backcountry obs to speak of over the past few days beyond touring inbounds at Diamond Peak. Early morning backcountry conditions have remained consistent with hard, heavily rutted and tracked out surfaces until softened by sunlight and daily warming. Lows each night have been around freezing at lake level and well below higher into the mountains. The spring skiing has been a hoot, but changes are afoot…

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today may be the last mainly dry day for a while as a trough of low pressure moves into the Sierra bringing a new round of snow over the weekend. A mix of clouds and sun will start out today before clouds thicken, winds increase and precip. starts late this afternoon into the evening. Snow levels will start above lake level (7000′ or so), then quickly come down after a frontal passage late in the evening. Expect highs today to reach the upper 40s around the lake. Tonight’s lows will drop into the 20’s allowing for snow to accumulate and the backcountry to get a complete refresh. By tomorrow morning, 2-6″ are possible in mountain communities while 4-10″ may coat the mountains with higher amounts near the crest.

Tomorrow will be cool with highs in the mid 30’s and rounds of snow showers, picking up again in the afternoon with the influence of convective instability. There won’t be a ton of accumulation in town with the high sun angles, but the mountains could pick up a few more inches throughout the day.

Sat. PM into Sun. snow continues as a cold, moist, unstable flow off the Pacific will likely deliver several more inches around the region, refreshing the mountains. Another pulse of energy hits the mountains Sat. night bringing in another few inches. And Sun. afternoon’s daily convective warming may enhance snow showers yet again, adding to snow totals. By Mon. morning, a foot or more is very possible in the backcountry around the Tahoe Basin, with locally higher amounts along the crest and in the higher mountains.

The beginning of next week tends to favor a reprieve, but the spigot won’t turn off entirely. Snow showers and cool temps look probable through Thurs. when another storm impacts the mountains bringing more snow. Early indications show a system of similar strength to the Fri. – Sat. storm this week.

Right on the heels of the Thurs. system, another, potentially more robust storm comes in on Fri. and Sat of next week, bringing yet another round of glorious snow. Both the GFS and the Euro are in good agreement for next week’s stormy pattern to continue, adding to forecaster confidence.

Powder season ain’t over yet…