0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 18.9 deg. & 75% RH

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

No backcountry obs. this morning as a look at remote sensors shows blistering E winds raking the Sierra crest, especially points S. This morning Kirkwood recorded a 181 mph gust along the ridge at 9100′. As of this writing, winds are still sustained over 100mph and gusting in the 120-130mph range. Impressive. Around N. Lake Tahoe, winds are still very strong out of the E, with gusts along the crest well over 100mph. The one exception appears to be Slide Mtn where winds are sustained in the 30mph zone with gusts up to 50-60mph.

The wind event should continue through today and tonight before finally subsiding Fri. All along the Tahoe Sierra, expect most cold snow in N-E aspects to be pounded and sculpted into unbreakable board and sastrugi. I don’t anticipate treed zones to make it out unscathed, but it’ll be worth a look tomorrow morning.

Once the winds diminish tomorrow, expect high pressure to take over this weekend lasting into the middle of next week with clear skies, light winds, and warm temps. Highs will be in the low 50s at lake level this weekend, reaching the middle 50s by Mon.-Weds. Temps. in the mountains won’t be much cooler: good bye powder. Lows do look to approach freezing each night in the backcountry under a dry airmass. The combo of cool temps with radiational and evaporative cooling should allowing for modest surface refreezes each night. Translation: a decent to good corn cycle appears likely.

By the middle of next week, models continue hinting at a return to unsettled weather and the potential for storms in the final weeks of March. There’s no solid indication on how cold or strong these will be, but a prolonged warm and dry stretch lasting indefinitely looks unlikely.

And that’s good. The snowpack is in decent shape in the Tahoe Sierra and a bit below average on the Eastside. As things stand now, barring a sudden and prolonged warm up, there’s probably enough snow to ski through the middle – end of April in the backcountry. However, a few more dumps would be most welcome to top things off for an extended Sierra corn season to run well into May.