0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.9 deg. & 81% RH

0515 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 27 deg.

1-3″ new windblown snow

Backcountry obs.:

This morning the last system in the recent series of weak disturbances impacted Tahoe with little more than a few flurries and gusty winds. A smidgeon of new snow coated the ground this morning in Carnelian Bay, while above 8000′ in the Rose backcountry, 1-3″ of new natural snow had fallen in the past day.

Consistent SW winds had filled in many of the previous skier tracks from the weekend with only a few crusty edges peering out from the newly buffed out surface. As expected, open areas present a mix of refrozen crusts and buffed out crusty tracks as what little snow that’s been falling, fills in. Sheltered areas in the trees are harvesting the new snow better as a more consistent, 1-3″ of soft buff covers the preexisting old, cold, pre-storm powder.

The skiing is still fun: mainly soft, buffed out powder in the trees and scratchy dust on crust in exposed and steeper terrain. Understanding how to sniff out any small wind deposits is key to maximizing soft turns. It’s a good day for some all-mountain, variable snow training.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Today’s unsettled conditions bringing mostly cloudy skies, occasional snow showers, and gusty winds will continue through the afternoon. Showers may become a bit more convective with afternoon heating late in the day, producing bursts of snow and/or pellet showers. Highs will reach the upper 30s in mountain communities with 20s and 30s in the backcountry. Little, if any, new snow accumulation is expected.

Behind today’s system skies begin clearing and temps drop this evening well into the teens and 20s. Tomorrow expect another cool, breezy day in the upper 30s/low 40s with clouds and sun and winds out of the N.

Weds. night through Fri. AM, winds will shift around to the N and E in response to a building ridge of high pressure off the coast interacting with a trough of low pressure to our E. The gradient will produce strong E winds that will likely strip most cold, unconsolidated snow from NE facing aspects. Goodbye powder.

Fri. through the weekend, sunny skies are still no tap with temps. warming each day. By early next week, highs should reach the low to mid 50s around the lake, with cold nights allowing for snow surface refreezes. Corn snow, here we come.

Beyond the middle of next week, some models begin diverging in their solutions for the middle to end of March. Looking at the upper level flow models in the Pacific, there’s quite a bit of flux. Some runs suggest the strong ridge of high pressure arriving this weekend to lift N and E, with the subtropical branch of the jet reinvigorating near SoCal. This would allow storms to sneak in from the S. While other models suggest another blocking ridge redeveloping near the west coast, keeping us warm and dry.

Spring is nigh; expect change.