0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 30.9 deg. & 87% RH

1″ new snow

Backcountry obs.:

Despite the dry weather and gusty winds, backcountry conditions in the Rose zone around Incline and Relay Peaks this weekend provided a fun mixed bag of crusts, wind effect, and delightful, cold powder in sheltered N facing aspects. Traffic has been heavy in the area, so clean lines are rare in the most popular areas close to trailheads.

The most protected, N. facing trees and micro deposition aspects are still collecting and holding cold snow. Areas with solar and/or wind exposure are covered with a mix of breakable and unbreakable crusts. S aspects near lake level have begun to show signs of baby corn, which will likely expand and climb higher as temps warm and the sun grows stronger with each passing day. It won’t be long (a few days) until the focus shifts from skiing powder to skiing corn.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Some light snow this morning has provided a minor refresh to the backcountry snow from the weekend. Today, expect an overcast morning with a few stray snow showers with the potential for some clearing by midday as the current disturbance moves out of the area. Highs today will approach 40 around lake level and stay near to below freezing in the backcountry. Expect moderate SW winds to prevail and pick up yet again this afternoon with the approach of our next system.

This evening another minor storm system moves in producing gusty winds and light snow that will continue through tomorrow morning before tapering off. Snow totals will range from an inch or two in mountain communities, to up to an additional 6-8″ in the mountains and along the crest. Winds will also pick up out of the SW again this afternoon and evening, increasing tomorrow during the day before backing off a bit Tues. evening. Highs tomorrow will reach the upper 30s around lake level and remain in the 20s and low 30s in the backcountry. Behind the system temps will cool off with lows in town in the low 20s on Tues. night, teens in the mountains.

The weather really starts drying out in a prolonged fashion beginning Weds., but not before a potentially significant – and powder destroying – NE wind event Weds.-Thurs. A building ridge of high pressure off the coast will interact with a cold, dry low dropping through the Great Basin on Weds. The steep gradient between the deep low and the strengthening high will create strong, potentially damaging NE winds for Tahoe communities that will almost certainly strip any cold snow that falls over the next two days from NE aspects and toss it into oblivion. Expect wind hammered conditions on all aspects when it’s all over.

Luckily the Tahoe Sierra finally has a snowpack, so what’s left behind or ground into wind board will likely endure what’s next: a warm up and dry spell, potentially transforming the snow into the second best thing to powder: Sierra corn.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure off the coast responsible for the midweek wind event, will strengthen and move over the area late week through the weekend blocking any chance for precip. and warming up temps 5-10 deg. above average. Expect sunny skies from Thurs. through the weekend and into next week with highs warming into the upper 40s to low 50s by the weekend at lake level. Temps appear to cool efficiently each night, refreezing whatever surface snow melts during the day. This repetition of melt and freeze under sunny skies is the recipe for Sierra’s best corn. Time it right and enjoy!

Looking way out to next week, there are some signs of a trough of low pressure returning unsettled weather to the area, but the corn fest could continue as well. Time will tell.