0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 29.5 deg. w/ moderate snow

24 hr. new snow: 10″ from 0800 2/29 – 0800 3/1

Backcountry obs.:

The storm wasn’t coming in terribly hard this morning, so I decided to head out to Incline Peak to have a look-see. At about 7000′, conditions on Mt. Rose Highway deteriorated quickly with heavy snowfall and whiteout conditions. It was 23 deg. at the turnout and had not yet been plowed. Drifts were building in the roadway, so I opted to turn around and tour from home.

First tour of the season from the house! A fairly dense and right side up 10-12″ of new snow had fallen in the backcountry above Carnelian this morning. Coverage in this area pre storm was a mixed bag of bare ground and lumpy, crusty snowpack 1-3′ deep. Because the area is generally a S aspect, open windward zones were bare ground until this morning. Needless to say, coverage is improving and the area provided some mellow powder turns.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Up to this morning, snowfall totals so far were on the lower end of the forecast amounts. Snow came in consistently yesterday, but as graupel and small, icy flakes. Temps. flirted with freezing in the late afternoon, but rose again to 32.4 deg. through the evening as bands of snow raked the area.

Starting at dawn, snowfall character has changed from dense, graupely snow, to a flakier, fluffy heavy snowfall, and accumulations will likely reflect the change.

Today expect snow to pick up in intensity as the heart of the multi-day storm arrives this afternoon through Sat. AM. Temps. today may nudge freezing at the lake in the early-mid afternoon, but will quickly crash back into the 20’s this evening with the arrival of the cold front. Heavy snowfall will become more consistent and reach rates of 3″ per hour, possibly up to 5″ per hour during the evening and overnight hours. These rates will be sustained as the cold front and unstable cold core of the storm behind the front arrive into Tahoe.

The airmass behind the cold front traces its origin to the Bering Sea and has traveled SE across the Gulf of Alaska over the past week. This trajectory makes the air hitting the Sierra cold, unstable, and incredibly moisture rich. Add the extra orographic lift that the range provides and boom: feet and feet of snow for Tahoe. Praise!

Winds will also pick up again this afternoon, creating the much-advertised blizzard conditions. It’ll be a great Fri. night to sit back with a whiskey, beer (or both) in front of a cozy fire.

Tomorrow morning will start out with snow dumping (3-5″ per hour) that may ease just a bit for the afternoon. This is relative, however, as rates of 1-3″ per hour do still qualify as respectable to ‘dumping’. Temps will not get out of the 20’s around lake level and gusty winds will continue. Snow quality will improve on this end of the storm as snow/water ratios rise into the 15/1 to 18/1 neighborhood.

The storm continue Sat. PM and Sun. Snowfall will turn more showery on Sun. and Sun. night with cold temps. prevailing. More snow is possible later next week.

For now, it’s time to sit back and enjoy the storm we’ve been waiting for all season.