0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 37.3 deg. & 80% RH

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 27 deg. w/ graupel and mixed precip.

Backcountry obs.:

The much-advertised storm had just started to arrive this morning in the Mt. Rose backcountry with strong SW winds, dense fog, and waves of mixed precip. (graupel, icy snow, riming mist and freezing rain). Despite temps. being well below freezing, frozen droplets accumulated on my skis while skinning up in the parking lot and added a light sheen to snow surfaces. My car was covered in a textured glaze of graupel and freezing rain when I returned around 0700.

Much like Mon. 2/26, crusts reigned on all aspects of the zone with only a few isolated stashes of cold powder in true north facing trees. Accumulating graupel and whatever else remained available for wind transport whipped through the forest and along ridge lines with each blasting gust. Wind gusts on adjacent Slide Mtn. not surprisingly flirted with hurricane force (75 mph) throughout the early morning. The jet like roar of winds raking Galena Peak accompanied my entire tour.

Any new snow today is falling mainly on crusty surfaces or old, cold powder in north facing chutes and heavily sheltered, forested areas. The mixed bag coming out of the sky early in the storm may help bond new snow to the old surfaces, but regardless, the amount of anticipated new snow will create avalanche cycles throughout the event.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

It’s pretty remarkable how little has changed in the forecast for the storm over the past few days, especially in the last 24 hours. Take a look at yesterday’s post for the play by play breakdown.

In short, from now until Sun. AM, expect between 3-5′ in Tahoe communities around lake level. 5-10′ can be expected above 7000′ with greatest amounts along the crest and NW of the lake. (It will be very interesting to see what the Central Sierra Snow Lab reports on top of Donner by Sun AM.)

Whatever mixed precip. may be falling currently below 6500′ will transition to all snow and intensify throughout the day and into tonight. Snowfall rates may peak at 5″ per hour Fri.-Sat AM, before dropping back to more civilized 1-3″ per hour rates through Sun/Mon.

A break looks likely for the beginning of the week until another system moves in from the NW around midweek bringing renewed chances for more snowfall. Signals for the midweek storm are not nearly as strong as the current system, but do bear watching.

For now, it’s time to watch the snow fall.