0415 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 36.1 deg. & 80% RH

0530 temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 26 deg. w/wind driven flurries

Backcountry obs.:

Gusty winds out of the SW shook the car upon arrival at the TH this morning. On the mountain, strong winds and wind-driven snow graupel provided nice facial exfoliation in the skintrack. Surfaces from the TH to the summit are a mix of crusts, deep ruts and tracks and the occasional stash of cold, soft snow. With the noticeably higher solar angle, snow surfaces are largely dictated by aspect: those with the most southern exposure have the thickest, most supportable crusts, while E and NE aspects hold breakable crusts. Only protected, true N aspects and shaded zones beneath trees hold cold, soft snow.

The warmth and traffic of the past few days has taken its toll on the backcountry and the modest inbound refresh is very much welcome.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Expect strong and gusty SW winds today with snow showers picking up in intensity through the afternoon hours, tapering off after dark. Highs will reach the upper 30’s in mountain communities and not make it above freezing for most backcountry zones. Total accumulations for the area will be light with a coating to an inch around the lake with up to 4-6″ in the mountains before the system kicks out to the east.

Tues. and Weds. will be fair and seasonably chilly with sunshine and highs Tues. around 40 at lake level, moderating 5-10 more degrees for Weds. Lows both nights will be in the 10’s to 20’s from lake level to the backcountry.

Now the big story: a high impact winter storm looks very likely to move into the Tahoe Sierra Thurs. through through the weekend dropping heavy snows at all elevations. A deep low associated with a strong attendant jet stream will drop in from the Gulf of Alaska Thurs.-Sat. bringing high winds, heavy snows and cold temps. This storm will bring feet of snow to the Sierra – and it’s looking ever more likely that big snows fall at lake level too. This morning’s Euro ensemble shows total precip. amounts through Sun. between 4-6″ of water, which could translate to multiple feet of snow on the mountains through the weekend. Colder temps. will also help to boost snow/water ratios. Models are also very consistent in their representation of the track and intensity of this storm across models and ensembles, quite a different tune from the rest of the 2024 winter.

In addition to the snow, this storm will bring high winds making utility interruptions a real possibility. It might not be a bad idea to stock up on essentials in the coming days.

Bottom line: a big, cold storm reminiscent of 2023 is likely to hit Tahoe this weekend…