0400 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 29.1 deg. & 98% RH

8” new storm snow

0500 temp at 8400’ Incline Peak TH: 24 deg.

10-18″ observed new storm snow

Backcountry obs.:

Last night’s storm dropped a healthy refresh of a nearly a foot plus in the Incline Peak zone. At 5:00am moderate snow and SW winds continued to affect the area. Throughout the dawn hours winds eased and snowfall diminished just after dawn. Low, dense cloud cover has held on throughout the morning.

Apart from wind effect noted on open areas near former Incline Lake, little wind effect was noted from bottom to top of the peak. The summit had surprisingly few obvious wind slabs/pillows on lee aspects. Surface snow had some light texture at the summit, but still skied soft, smooth, and powdery.

Digging a few hasty pits revealed some moderate shears within the new snow. However, ski cuts above avalanche terrain and its subsequent skiing did not trigger any instabilities, sluffs included. The new snow appears right side up and increases in depth as you gain elevation on the peak.

Quality-wise, this storm dropped classicly dense Sierra powder. It’s not soppy cement, nor light and blower, but fluffy and forgiving hero pow. For best results and maximum enjoyment, apply speed to elongated turns on steep slopes and weeeee!

The skiing’s great this morning. Go get it.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

After a few days of warmth and calm, last night’s storm signaled the return to an active pattern in the Sierra. Over the next week, at least two more systems look likely to impact the area.

Today expect mostly cloudy skies with diminishing snow showers dropping negligible new snow. Highs around the lake will top out in the mid-upper 30’s while backcountry zones should remain near to well below freezing. Tonight skies begin to break and temps will respond by cooling well into the teens and 20’s.

Fri. through Sat. morning expect a break with sunshine returning and temps in upper 30’s to low 40’s both days. Snow on solar aspects and lower elevation zones should thicken and crust over with the warmth and subsequent freezing temps each night.

Sat. night through Sun. am another system comes into the Sierra from the W. arriving on a zonal (mild) track. Snow levels may be a bit higher than last night’s storm (6500-7000+’). Snowfall amounts also look slightly lower with 6-8″ possible above 8000′, maybe more for zones up along the crest. The track and warmth of this system will likely promote denser snow, especially along the Sierra crest.

Sun. night through Tues./Weds. another potentially more significant storm will impact the region. This storm is will have a strong subtropical moisture tap thanks to a robust Pacific jet extension over SoCal/Northern Baja. The jet will phase with a meandering low that posts up somewhere offshore between southern Oregon and NorCal. The result: a few days of consistent precip. for the Sierra, with the heaviest snowfall likely favoring the central and southern Sierra.

Snow levels are tough to pin down at this point as models don’t suggest a particularly cold or warm event. Expect snow levels to hover around lake level plus or minus a few hundred feet. Confidence in a solid snowfall (1-3 feet) is pretty good for the backcountry and zones above 7000′, but diminishes for lower areas. A subtropical moisture fetch and lack of any strong cold signal make a big dump of heavy snow for lower and mid elevations seem unlikely. Time will tell.

Looking beyond, the pattern continues to look unsettled with the potential for more snow into next weekend (Feb. 24 – 25). Keep it up, winter.