0430 temp. at 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 31.7 deg. &62% RH

0515 temp. At 8650’ Tamarack TH: 24 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Strong SW winds, fog and light snow greeted the day in the Tamarack zone presaging the arrival of the next storm. As expected, the Rose zone is heavily tracked out, but what unconsolidated snow remains, is blowing about and buffing out the snow surface.

Cold stashes with fun, cold powder still abound in the trees and in protected NW-NE aspects. Near and above tree line and on solar and windward aspects, expect a range of frozen crusts, sastrugi, and wind board.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

What looked like a minor brush by system earlier in the week has evolved into a medium-sized sneaker system that might drop upwards of a foot of new snow this evening and early tomorrow morning in the backcountry. 4-8” totals around the Tahoe Basin aren’t out of the question, with higher amounts to the N and W, lower totals S and E.

Today will be cloudy and blustery with snow showers developing late this afternoon. High temps will top out in the upper 30s in mountain communities, while the mountains and backcountry will stay near to below freezing with increasing winds and flurries/light snow. More consistent and impactful snow will filter into the region late this afternoon with the heaviest amounts coming in after dark. A stretch of 1-2” per hour snowfall rates looks likely from late evening til after midnight.

Tomorrow will have a few snow showers diminishing throughout the day. Expect clouds and sun with highs again around 40 at the lake, low 30s in the mountains.

A brief break is in store for Fri. Before a weaker, quick system moves in Sat. with slightly higher snow levels than today’s system (6500-7000’). Expect a few inches of refresh in the higher zones. Little to nothing around the lake.

Another brief break early Sunday. Looks probable before a larger and more impactful storm may hit the area late Sunday.-Tues. Bringing consistent, potentially significant snowfall. models are still working out timing and track, but for now a decent storm looks likely. Once again, it appears that a wobbly cutoff low near the CA coast will interact with a strong Pacific jet extension near SoCal bringing in a good fetch of subtropical moisture, lifting it up and squeezing it out along the Sierra. Snow levels don’t look super low or super high, so this could bring wet snow to lake level and a dense dump to the backcountry. Time will tell.

For now, fingers crossed that tonight’s system refreshes things completely to kick off the next cycle.