0330 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 21.2 deg. & 91% RH

Trace new snow

0430 temp. at 6800′ Jake’s Peak TH: 22 deg.

1-2″ new snow

Backcountry obs.:

I headed out to the West Shore this morning to check out conditions and snowpack. Generally soft snow exists in the trees on sheltered aspects in the Jake’s zone with good – not amazing – skiing. The area has been hit fairly hard with traffic over the past week, so don’t expect a clean line from top to bottom. Surface snow is composed of a few inches of light, dry snow mixed with some surface hoar in shaded areas and on NW-NE aspects. Dense storm snow from last weekend’s cycle lies beneath with a few noticeable density changes.

I observed no signs of instabilities.

On open E aspects, a thin, breakable sun crust has formed, especially on the lower half of the mountain. Higher up, open areas host spotty windboard/crust on windward and solar microaspects. Coverage top to bottom is generally good and skiable, but some sharks still lurk on the lower third, especially in solar and windward zones. Expect to dance with manzanita and white thorn on the lower third of the east face. The upper mountain hosts robust midwinter snow depth with rounded out, playful features.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today will be another cool day with mostly cloudy skies and light snow showers developing during the afternoon. Highs around the lake will top out in the low 30’s with upper 20’s in the mountains. NW winds will gently grace the lower elevations with some stouter gusts in the mountains and along ridge lines. Skies will begin clearing tonight, promoting cold lows in the teens and single digits.

Tomorrow will be sunny with temps in the low-mid 30’s as a light NE flow keeps things cool.

Sunday will be sunny and mild with temps warming 5-10 deg. as a ridge of high pressure settles into the region that will likely last through the coming work week. Expect generally sunny skies with seasonable temps in the 40’s during the day, 20’s at night. This doesn’t look like a big, prolonged warm up that will significantly erode the current snowpack. The drier airmass may yet still preserve cold snow in sheltered NW-NE facing backcountry zones.

The ridge shows signs of breaking down towards the end of next week, possibly ushering a new period of storminess with the potential for precip. returning to the Sierra.

Looking more than a week out, models tend to show a robust Pacific jet extension moving towards the California coast next weekend and the following week, then sagging south in a setup similar to what we experienced last weekend. The positioning of the jet will play a big role in how the pattern develops. Should it come in and establish itself into central and southern CA, Tahoe would be in a favorable spot for impactful storms.

For now, enjoy the approaching midwinter bluebird pattern.