0400 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.1 deg.

Trace new snowfall

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 17 deg.

Backcountry obs.

Skiing in the Rose backcountry continues to improve and stabilize as of this morning. Stability improvements may be short-lived as wind slabs grow due to an incoming disturbance bringing modest snowfall and moderate/high winds. Snow totals for the next 24 hours could reach 6″ along the crest and west of the lake, while eastern zones will likely see a few inches.

Moderate to strong winds out of the WNW and cold temps welcomed the day in the predawn hours at the Tamarack TH. No appreciable new snow fell in the past 24 hours, but surfaces on all aspects remain soft and have further consolidated from the upside-down snow left in the wake of the weekend storm. Wind effect on surface snow was notable with modest soft texture in treed and protected zones, to soft, easily turnable buff on direct windward aspects. Ridges are becoming sculpted and firm, but cold temps and new snow are redistributing the fluff rather than allowing winds to deeply scour surfaces.

Thus far this season, this is the week to be in the backcountry. Protected steeps and bowls have cold, fast fluff atop a springy, dense base making for soft, floaty turns. Surface conditions are largely consistent, so opening it up with confidence is easy. Midwinter snow depth also means that the early season sharks have migrated down below 7000′.

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Today a weak system will bring moderate winds and generally light snowfall to the region. A reinforcing shot of cold air will accompany the storm, keeping temps. in the low 30’s around the lake, low 20’s in the mountains. Expect generally gray and overcast conditions, but a few peeks of sunshine aren’t out of the question. Snowfall totals through tomorrow morning will range from 1-3″ around the lake to up to 6″ up along the crest. The backcountry should receive a modest surface refresh.

The remainder of the work week still looks to feature periods of light snowfall and cold temps as a couple weak impulses drop into the trough of low pressure that currently sits over the region. As the trough lazily moves eastward, each successive impulse will take a more eastward track becoming progressively drier. The result: a few light snow showers, shots of colder air and breezy conditions eventually giving way to sunshine by Saturday.

The weekend will initiate a calm period of clearer skies and modestly warmer daytime temps in the upper 30’s around the lake, 20’s in the mountains. Drier air will likely still preserve sheltered snow hopefully keeping the backcountry powdery through the weekend on NW-E aspects.

The Sierra looks to remain under the influence of high pressure for the coming week which will translate to fair skies, seasonal temps, and little to no chance of new snow.

Looking way out into the Pacific next week, models show the jet stream remaining strong in the central Pacific and beginning to extend towards the the west coast at the end of the week. What that means is anyone’s guess at this point: too far out.

For now, the gettin’s good. Best to treat this week as the best it could get all season.