0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 30.9 deg. and falling w/ 98% RH

10″ new 24hr. snow. (19″ storm total so far)

0515 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 24 deg.

18-30″+ new snow between TH and 9500′ summit

Backcountry obs.

Travel was slow going this morning in the backcountry. Strong S-SW winds and bands of intense snowfall greeted the day reducing visibility and making travel disorienting. Breaking trail up Incline Peak was deep and arduous, made more so by a noticeably upside down snowpack. The lack of any rain crusts and cold, soft snow suggest that yesterday’s warming temps did not crest freezing in this zone. The warm up is clearly evident in a “trap door” snow pack that is noticeably more dense on top than underneath.

New snow amounts increased with elevation and protected areas below treeline held soft snow without much wind effect. The denser snow is about 1-3″ thick at the top of the snowpack, with feet of colder, lighter snow beneath. At and above treeline, ridges have firm cornices and wind pillows that don’t extend very far downhill.

Surprisingly, ski cuts and stomps did not release any wind slabs. Cracking, whumphing, and other obvious signs of instability were not observed. The amount of new snow and its upside down nature were strong enough warnings to avoid avalanche terrain and stick to more mellow, protected areas.

The skiing this morning was great fun, but strenuous. The depth and density of the new snow, coupled with the need to stay off steep terrain discouraged any turning beyond wide steering at speed. Float is the name of the game until the new snow consolidates. If you own pontoons, today would be a day to use ’em.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The rare low pressure system responsible for yesterday’s storm produced a wide variety of impacts around Tahoe. Snow started before dawn on Sun. with cold temps that inched upward throughout the day. At 8am I recorded 9″ of cold, light new snow at 6350′. By 1pm, temps had just barely edged above freezing and 9 more inches of snow had fallen. Around that time, snow began to taper to showers and temps slowly climbed. By 5 pm, winds increased dramatically and temps continued rising, but more rapidly. By 9pm temps had climbed to 37.6 deg., the high temp. for the day. By this morning, freezing temps. returned along with bursts of heavy snow.

This storm has been yet another reminder of how different and unpredictable each storm can be. Despite all the advanced modeling now available, we never really can know what the future will bring until it’s upon us, especially in an area as varied and dynamic as the Sierra. Slight adjustments in track, ocean water temps, or some distant atmospheric variation can greatly impact how storms interact with the Sierra’s topography, and how much snow falls – or doesn’t – from one area to the next.

Today snow will continue to fall in intense bands throughout the morning and into the afternoon and evening. Temps. will be a bit cooler, keeping snow levels down to lake level throughout the day. Peak temps. will happen around or just after midday, before falling off as the sun’s angle wanes. Tonight a few snow showers are still expected with colder night time temps.

New accumulation today will be highly variable depending on where intense snow bands set up. Some areas in the backcountry, especially along the crest and in the higher terrain, could see an additional foot. Mountain communities should see between 1-6″.

Tomorrow cold temps and snow showers will continue with highs in the low-mid 30’s in town and lows in the 20’s.

Chances of snow showers and cold temps stick around through the work week before calmer weather settles in for next weekend. No big warm ups are on the horizon with high temps in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the 20’s. Backcountry areas will see temps in the 20’s and teens. A moderate warming trend may arrive with calmer weather this weekend.

The snow might be weird, but it’s here. Time to get it.