0700 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 27.3 deg. & 98% RH

9″ new snow

No backcountry obs.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

The much anticipated storm is here. This morning dawned with heavy snow and mainly light winds. The forecast is still holding for 1-2′ in Tahoe communities with 2-3′ above 7000′ through tonight. Heavy snow will transition to more showery, intermittent snowfall this afternoon and evening continuing into tomorrow, but with lesser amounts. The most intense accumulation will be this morning through afternoon.

One notable change to the storm forecast is the possibility for snow levels to climb near 6000′ late this afternoon into the evening. The subtropical fetch of moisture coupled with anomalously warm sea surface temps in the eastern Pacific near the CA coast may add enough heat to the storm to, yet again this season, raise snow levels. Rain may mix in at the lake, especially when snowfall rates ease. Snow levels drop again late this evening. The risk of rain mixing in from 7000′ up is low.

However, the storm profile of a cold start and warmer finish at all elevations raises the prospect for instabilities within the new snowpack. Denser snow falling this afternoon as warmer air comes into the storm could overload lighter, drier snow near from earlier that rests atop old, hard crusts. If heading out into the backcountry today or tomorrow, keep a lookout for potential density changes in the new snow.

Colder air filters back in tonight as snowfall rates diminish, but maintain throughout tomorrow. For now, it’s time to sit back and enjoy the storm. Great skiing awaits…