0800 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.4 deg. & 98% RH with light snow

24 hr. precip: .19″ rain / 1-2″ snow

0530 temp. at 8460′ Incline Peak TH: 30 deg. (falling) with light to moderate snow

2-5″ new snow accumulation as of 0700.

Backcountry obs.:

The much anticipated storm has under performed. Early this morning the changeover to snow did not happen at lake level until around 4:30. Since then, snow has been falling lightly with temps. in the low 30’s. With main band of precip. now to our south and breaking apart, it looks as though the bulk of today’s accumulation has passed. Lingering showers remain.

Precip. shadowing was very evident this morning in the backcountry as Incline Peak only had about 2″ at the TH and around 5″ near the summit at 9500′. During my tour, snow fell around 1/2″ per hour, but pulsed in and out. Winds blew out of the SW in the light/moderate range in open areas and on the summit.

The skiing has vastly improved, but still has a ways to go to recover the soft, bottomless goodness of a powdery mid-winter state. Concrete-hard ruts and tracks from the warm spell are still evident, yet fattened and softened with the new snow. A few more inches should erase them completely. For today expect a heavy dust on crust. The underlying firm surfaces are noticeable with most turns, and especially evident with slipage on steeper, side-hilling sections of the skintrack. The snow has not yet bonded to the crust beneath.

Instabilities noted were confined to loose sluffs running down steeper chutes and gullies, but nothing entraining larger cohesive slabs of snow. At the time of my tour there was not enough snow – except in deposition zones along the lee side of ridge tops – to pose any significant avy risk.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Some years storms seem to get more potent with each model run in the days preceding their arrival. Then when they hit, they all overperform… That’s not 2024.

Today’s storm arrived late last night with rain at lake level until the predawn hours. An inch or so has fallen as of mid-morning, with Rose zone backcountry amounts in the 2-5″ range. A far cry from 1-2′.

Snow showers and cool temps. will prevail today with highs in the low-mid 30’s around the lake, with below freezing temps holding above 7000′. Snow levels will fall to around 5000-5500′ by afternoon. Expect a few peeks of sun in between snow showers, but otherwise skies will remain mostly cloudy. An additional inch or two can be expected in town with slightly greater amounts in the backcountry. Higher amounts will be along CA 89 and on the Crest.

Additional light snow showers will continue tonight and into tomorrow as the moist upsloping flow off the Pacific takes hold. Tomorrow a new, modest impulse swings through in the afternoon, increasing snowfall potential. Another few inches can be expected around the lake, with higher amounts in the mountains and along the crest. This refresh is coming in inch by inch.

Saturday and Sat. night some stray snow showers will grace the region under a mix of clouds and sun, with cooler temps. in the low 30’s during the day and 20’s at night.

The next potential big storm gets rolling on Sun. afternoon and looks to continue through Mon. evening/early Tues. Models this morning show a low developing off the coast that will phase a subtropical moisture fetch with cooler air, bringing another round of snow to the Sierra. Temps will remain cold enough for snow at all elevations – even down into W. Nevada valleys -for the duration of the event. The position of the low near the Monterey Bay is ideal for steering and forcing moisture up against the Sierra to be wrung out as heavy snow.

Probabilistic models this morning have Tahoe Basin communities with a greater than 50% chance of 12″+ and 2-3′ up along the crest. Models are also running a bit wetter today with higher QPF (quantitative precip. forecast) amounts than yesterday. With the storm still a few days out, details on timing and specifics have yet to crystalize and I expect multiple revisions on snow amounts over the next few days. This season has been marked with storms losing their punch as they hit the Sierra, so it’s difficult to see big projections and have confidence that they’ll hold.

That said, the show for this cycle is only getting started and conditions in the backcountry will improve over the next few days: inch by inch at first, then potentially with a big wallop.