0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 33.8 deg. & 98% RH

0515 temp. at 8650’ Tamarack TH: 31 deg.

Backcountry obs.:

Crust. Thin crust, thick crust, soon-to-be corn crust, and extra tasty, crispy garlic crust: the backcountry has it all this morning!

I headed out this morning to check on refreezes and see how the snowpack is holding up to prolonged warmth. Early morning snow surfaces in the Tamarack area refroze last night in drainages and on ridgetops. Some mid-slope treed areas were a bit softer from trees reflecting energy back into the snowpack. Colder aspects (NW-NE) host variably supportable crusts making turns difficult and unpredictable: combat skiing. Solar aspects are supportable and firm. I did see signs of baby corn snow growing on S aspects, so if you time it right, you might just be able to steal a spring corn run in January.

The current crust/wet snow situation should continue until the arrival of the next storm system late on Weds. Now that the PWL (persistent weak layer) has largely healed in the snowpack, future instabilities will likely depend on how new snow bonds with the current crusts. The old moniker “today’s surface is tomorrow’s weak layer” will be especially relevant.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today will be warm and sunny with light winds and highs in the lower 50’s. Expect another night of mostly clear skies, calm winds and lows in the low-mid 30’s. Some valley fog is also possible at night. Rinse and repeat for Tues. and Tues. night.

Weds. begins the great pattern change with winds and cloud cover on the increase ahead of rain/snow starting late afternoon and into the evening. Rain should transition to snow overnight for all elevations, including lake level. Thurs. will be a storm day with snow continuing before tapering off to snow showers overnight Thurs. and into Fri. with temps remaining cold (20s-low 30’s).

Above 7000′, 12-18″ seems like a plausible estimate for this first storm in the pattern. At first glance, this one also looks like it’ll come in right side up with denser, warmer snow starting off, followed by lighter, colder snow towards the end. Down at lake level expect lesser amounts (6-12″), but enough to transform the landscape back into winter. Finally.

The action might mellow a bit over the coming weekend, but temps will stay cold. Residual flow off the Pacific looks to keep snow showers likely Sat. and Sun. Looking at next week, the overall pattern remains conducive to cold, potent, and potentially convective storms with a robust N. Pacific jet just to our south. This keeps us cold while favoring storm development near the central and southern CA coast.

True to form, another potent low began showing up last night in the GFS models for the beginning to middle of next week. This storm would bring another round of significant snow to the Sierra with cold temps hanging on for the duration of the event.

Winter looks like it’s finally making a comeback starting Weds. and continuing for at least a week. Get your sticks ready!