0630 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 34.9 deg. & 98% RH

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Warm and dry weather is here as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure builds over our region the next few days. Highs today through Weds. will reach the 50’s throughout the Tahoe Basin under mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the mid to lower 30’s each night.

Areas of valley fog in valleys, meadows, and along the immediate Tahoe shoreline can also be expected each morning with inversions. As of this writing, temps. are 5-10 deg. warmer midslope (7000-8000′) again today than they are at lake level. High pressure coupled with weak surface winds is inhibiting any mixing in protected basins, allowing cold air from the snow pack to flow downhill and pool, inhibiting the air near the lake from warming as quickly as upper elevation slopes exposed to relatively stronger flow.

Big changes are still holding in the forecast starting Weds. afternoon as the ridge moves out and a strong Pacific jet extension begins sending storms into the Sierra. The first storm comes in late Weds. night starting warm with snow levels up around 8000′, quickly lowering to below lake level on Thurs. and beyond. The bulk of the energy for the first system will be directed at Tahoe and points south, but even without being in the direct bullseye, our region has solid chances of racking up some appreciable snow amounts: a foot or more.

This will not be a one and done storm. Cold and stormy conditions look likely continuing into next weekend and the first full week of February as the jet stream parks itself over SoCal in a position highly favorable for storms to affect our area.